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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
12:01
Welcome everyone, we'll get started momentarily
Harry Doyle
12:02
Would you consider it smart to use all or almost all of my reliever spots on one relievers that are likely to start?
Brad Johnson
12:03
This tends to be very situational. In a H2H league with no weekly IP cap, it's a decent path to dominating W and K. However, the tradeoff is usually losing ERA/WHIP/SV so you better locked down 4 offensive stats.
12:04
And it tends to be even less effective in other formats. You usually want relievers to help ballast your ERA/WHIP in roto. Points tends to favor high quality IP over volume.
12:05
So, I guess I suggest turning to this strategy only if you've found yourself in a bad position.
Guest
12:05
Why does joe Ryan seem perpetually undervalued. Whether prospects lists or fantasy rankings. Peripherals are great despite underwhelming velo and the high spin plays. I think he could be a top 50 sp this year
Brad Johnson
12:06
He could, and most of my colleagues seem to be in agreement that he's a high ceiling target.
I actually took him in the Tout Wars slow draft a couple days/rounds ago.
For me, my hold ups are the high fly ball rate which can sometimes leak into a high HR rate
12:07
And we also can't be too confident about his workload just yet. Or if he's even a regular 5+ IP guy.
JD
12:07
in a 6x6 roto league with 5 OF slots,  Judge or Semien as my last keeper?
Brad Johnson
12:08
I have Judge as the better play. But I don't think it's wrong to go Semien if you're worried about the pool of 2B.
Oh, just a reminder, Tim has expressly advised me to answer fantasy questions only. So I'm not going to speculate about where Freddie or Correa are going to sign.
JimmyFlintwhistle
12:08
I traded Ozzie Albies for Luis Urias, Ketel Marte and Michael Busch...am I going to Fantasy Hell? (keeper league, no salaries)
Brad Johnson
12:09
Well... I'd need to know more about league depth to tell if Busch adds anything to this deal
I don't think I would have done the trade mostly because of how young and dynamic Albies is.
12:10
But I do project Albies and Marte as fairly similar in 2022. I'm perhaps the most optimistic of the analysts I know about Marte.
I have grave concerns about Urias though. He can hit, but he's a tiny guy who can't play defense.
It doesn't appear to be a solvable problem.
Mike T
12:10
Is Mike Trout a top 10 guy anymore?
Brad Johnson
12:11
Per ADP, no. For me, yes.
GabeOfThrones
12:11
What do you think of the talk of banning the shift? I don’t like it. I think hitters need to stop selling out and learn to hit to opposite fields.
Brad Johnson
12:11
Easier said than done, unfortunately. Hitters tried that a decade ago and discovered it was a negative EV strategy.
And that was before velocity got out of control
12:12
That said, I do think the shift ban is pretty silly
I've played rec sports - softball and kickball - with shift bans and we cope by putting defenders in motion. Which is weird and kind of fun and I can't wait to see the Rays doing it.
12:13
The solution is more of a developmental thing, and we actually have seen a good amount of adjustment.
Most players aren't really shiftable outside of certain specific situations.
12:14
The guys who are shiftable have carrying traits that make up for that weakness
The bryce is right
12:14
If you have the first overall pick, who do you take? Ohtani, Soto or someone else?
Brad Johnson
12:15
12-team, standard 5x5 roto, I'm taking Turner most times and sometimes Tatis.
in OBP, it's Soto
Guest
12:15
What are expecting Bobby Witt Jr to do this year stat-wise?
Brad Johnson
12:16
Is this a plant? I just penned a blurb for NBC today about why I'm the most pessimistic among our staff writers. I have him in the 22-24 ranked range among SS.
I think the median is something like 120 R+RBI, 15 HR, 15 SB, .260 AVG. Solid player, similar to Amed Rosario's expected line.
12:17
The upside is Bo Bichette or better
and that's what everyone is chasing
The downside is 0-200 PA and/or a Gavin Lux-like debut.
All the failure scenarios are not priced into his ADP
12:18
That said, my scouting sources are bonkers for Witt Jr. He's probably going to be some kind of useful in fantasy. I'm less confident he can earn his 90th ADP.
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