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Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
1:01
Welcome. Before we begin, a tiny programming note. The next three chats (two main site, one private) will be handled by Nick Gaut of FanGraphs. You'll like him.
Guest
1:01
For how long will Francisco Alvarez and Zach Neto stick in the majors if they don't hit?
Brad Johnson
1:02
Neto seems to be up because he's their best defensive SS option. Not that he's without warts. He'll have to hit at least *some* if he's to stick in the Majors this season.
1:05
The question is a bit harder to answer for Alvarez, in part because the Mets kind of need him right now.
I also don't have much doubt about his ability to hit, though his early-season strikeout rate is disconcerting. His home venue is also less than ideal for his profile.
1:06
Like Pete Alonso, he has enough power to overcome CitiField's limitations. He'll lose some HR though.
The quick answer is Neto probably won't stick this time around while the Mets likely will give Alvarez every opportunity to adjust and adapt.
1:07
If he's demoted, it will be to work on something specific.
Jack
1:07
Stick with Kopech in a dynasty league, pick up Bello, or flip a coin?
Brad Johnson
1:07
Ha, the coin is looking pretty good! Personally, I prefer Bello. As much as I want to believe in Kopech, I think he's getting to be overdue for a transition to the bullpen. Even if it's temporary as with Carlos Carrasco of yore.
1:08
Not that I think such a transition is imminent
1:09
As for Bello, he has my favorite pitching profile - misses bats, doesn't walk everybody, tons of GBs.
Vaughn Grissom
1:09
Should I activate me in a fantasy keeper rotisserie league or if I cost escalating salaries after three years should I wait for 2024.
Brad Johnson
1:10
I wouldn't fret too much about whether the salary escalation happens in 2026 or 2027. If he improves your roster, use him.
Guest
1:10
Can Tyler Mahle regain his 2021 form? Can he be better than in 2021?
Brad Johnson
1:11
He already looks basically identical to his 2021 self. A little BABIP ill-luck notwithstanding
1:12
I do think his fantasy numbers could turn out better than we saw in 2021. Target Field is a much friendlier home venue for him.
So, all else equal, that should shave half a run off his ERA.
1:13
(granted, all else is never equal in baseball)
Nick Krall
1:13
My fantasy team is currently in 4th place, but I have Ranger Suarez, Tony Gonsolin, Ryan Pepiot, and Mitch Haniger on IL, yet to contribute, so I am hopeful. However, my first baseman is Dom Smith, who has done virtually nothing. Do I try to trade for an upgrade (I have prospects like Baty, Vientos, Elly de la Cruz, Zac Veen in my minors) or will Dom rebound? Thanks so much for these chats!
Brad Johnson
1:14
This might be a nice opportunity to shop Baty for a 1B upgrade. I'd want to hang onto Elly, and I doubt you'd get anything useful for Vientos unless it's a Mets homer league.
1:15
As for Veen, he's tough to eval for fantasy purposes. There's no floor, but the ceiling is so high - especially with the league shoving teams towards valuing SBs.
1:16
In any case, I think Baty's the guy you'll get a friendly valuation on and won't necessarily miss. I expect him to be around the 10th best 3B annually.
1:17
Smith appears to be toast. If you want to be optimistic, the Nats might have coached *something* new into his approach. I can't put my finger on what specifically.
He's making more contact, but it's miserably weak.
RAGBRAI
1:18
Does Elder remain in the rotation or does he get bumped when someone comes back? If not in rotation, back to AAA or bullpen?
Brad Johnson
1:19
If it were up to me, he's "won" the fifth starter job. Since these guys can only be optioned five times, the Braves do have to be somewhat mindful with how they juggle them
Bullpen is an unlikely destination
Will in Westport
1:19
What impact do you think the recall of Oswaldo Peraza by the Yankees will have?  With Stanton on the IL, will Torres slide to DH, and Peraza play 2B?  Or, will he simply be on the bench, "just in case"?
Brad Johnson
1:20
I doubt he's a "just in case" guy. Then again, he wasn't exactly setting Triple-A afire.
1:21
Donaldson is back in a couple days so it's possible he's only up for that long.
They could also dump Willie Calhoun
1:23
I don't know, I'm trying to read the tea leaves of their roster, and it's pretty mucky. Really feels past time to move on from Aaron Hicks. I don't think he's guaranteed to be toast, but New York doesn't seem like the right place for him to recover his career.
1:25
As for impact, I'm not expecting a lot outside of SBs and maybe a decent AVG. His success last season was built on terrible peripherals.
Yankee Stadium can make a hero out of anybody though.
Warren
1:25
Hi! Who is on the block at this year's trade deadline?
Brad Johnson
1:27
Good question. The early sellers appear to be the Nationals, A's, Royals, Reds, and Rockies. There's far too much baseball to give up on any of the other clubs. Even the Royals could rebound.
1:28
Ramon Laureano, Tony Kemp, and Trevor May for Oakland
1:29
Joey Meneses for the Nats. They're not working with much. By the way, Meneses is a good buy low target right now. Lovely peripherals, bad results.
Shouldn't cost much of anything. Should be on waivers in 12-team mixed.
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