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Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
12:59
We'll get started in about 10 minutes.
Rank for rest of season in NL only roto 5x5
1:08
Who should I keep in order of value:  Josh Rojas or Avisail Garcia.  I have to decide in 7 days.
Brad Johnson
1:10
It's Avisail for me. Rojas just isn't getting to relevant EVs, even in the minors. Garcia still hits the ball hard, so it's easier to see him maintaining a starting role.
Buffy the Umpire Slayer
1:10
How often do sites update their projections and, especially, their formulas in assigning numbers? It appear they most just change numbers based on games remaining without factoring in how a player is actually preforming. The eye test is critical after the halfway point if not earlier. How do you evaluate player right now?
Brad Johnson
1:11
A "feature" of projections is they aren't sensitive to recent performance. As outsiders, we're mostly incapable of identifying a true hot streak or talent increase from random outcomes.
1:12
I know the ROS projections for THE BAT update daily, but it can still take months before the actual projected line is meaningfully different than the starting point
I'm not sure about ZiPS/Steamer.
jdf21
1:13
Should I sell high on CJ Abrams?  I received an offer of Marcello Mayer for Abrams in a keep forever dynasty league.
Brad Johnson
1:13
I think selling on Abrams makes sense. A lot of folks have cooled on him. I'd do the Mayer deal, assuming the league isn't like a 10-teamer.
1:14
That said, I'd look to immediately package Mayer with somebody for a higher profile name. Mayer's at a peak in value imo. He swing comps to Tork/Kelenic and his stats show similar red flags.
Catchers
1:14
Shopping for a catcher in AL Only OBP. Kirk, Varsho, Melendez, or Salvy?
Brad Johnson
1:14
There's a degree of "what do you need" in that list.
1:15
Varsho can get you some SBs while theoretically keeping pace in power. Kirk's the best bet to spike OBP and run production. Salvy's the guy for raw HR potential. I wouldn't cross off Mitch Garver either.
Two arms in trouble
1:16
Any clues to the Romano injury and/or Framber Valdez's recent struggles?
Brad Johnson
1:16
Valdez is trying to avoid the IL it would seem. He's completely ditched his cutter and his velo is a bit down.
1:18
As for Romano, I know what we all know - lower back inflammation. That could be caused by a tight calf, hammy, quad, hip flexors, any of the core muscles, or lat. Or it could be spinal in nature like a bulging disc or entrapped nerve.
Outfield Keepers
1:18
Could you rank AL Only OBP keepers: Kwan ($1), Josh Lowe ($10), Duran ($12)?
Brad Johnson
1:18
Ooh, tricky. I need to play around with this some
1:20
I think it's Kwan, Duran, Lowe. Kwan's high floor, low ceiling, but he's still outperforming the others. The tricky bit with him is the opportunity costs he imposes elsewhere on your roster.
I have a decent team with Kwan starting, I'm struggling in the HR and RBI categories even as he helps elsewhere.
1:21
Kwan feels a lot better when paired with a Judgian power source.
Estuery Ruiz
1:22
I’m about to come off the IL. In a H2H, redraft, standard category, fairly shallow league on a team that’s 75th percentile in SB without me and 99th with (but more like 50th in power), am I worth dropping Josh Lowe or Anthony Santander for when I come back, or should I be shown the door?
Brad Johnson
1:23
I like to decisively win categories in H2H, but playing for SBs is a narrow approach. If your pitching is very strong, it makes more sense.
1:24
Otherwise, the more well-rounded skill sets are probably better bets. Could you try to make a trade? Somebody should want Ruiz. Maybe you could do like Ruiz and Lowe for a different OF and a RP then cut a weaker RP?
RAGBRAI
1:25
ROS season NL only would you rather have KMarte/Turang or TTurner/Croneworth? Also knowing the first two are retainable next year and your battling for first this year.
Brad Johnson
1:26
This is another situation where your needs are relevant. Turner's the play for SBs and "I need to complete a long-pass (not quite a Hail Mary)." Ketel is higher floor at the moment and does a bit of everything.
1:27
I like Turang a bit more than Cronenworth at the moment. I think Croney's window is closing, but there might be a bounce or two left.
Rookies
1:27
I have Oakland's Jordan Diaz on my roster. When he's in the lineup, he hits—a poor man's Luis Arraez (or maybe Willian Astudilllo). Why isn't Oakland plkaying him regularly considering their alternatives? Should I dump Diaz for another Jordan—Jordan Westburg of Baltimore—who's also playing sporadically?
Brad Johnson
1:28
I don't have a good read on Diaz yet, I've mostly ignored the A's. I don't consider him anything like Arraez or Willians tho. The aggression, maybe, but the contact profile isn't anything close. I view him as a Quad-A type.
1:29
I like Westburg more, but they're juggling a deep roster at the moment. Deadline could force him back to Triple-A.
I imagine if Westburg is available, your wire has a better, less sexy option
GBS42
1:29
Brad, thanks for the Front Office chat.  NL-only 5x5 and I need to start either C.J
1:30
C.J. Cron or Garrett Cooper at CI in NL-only 5x5?
Any reason to start T. O'Neill over I. Happy or B
T. O'Neill or B. Reynolds?
My keyboard hates me...
Brad Johnson
1:30
lol
Well, unless your league doesn't DQ players for changing leagues (a few formats don't), then it has to be Cooper over Cron (Angels)
1:31
I comfortably prefer Happ and Reynolds to O'Neill.
1:32
I don't mind O'Neill as a buy-low target. He's seemingly better than his stats, especially in the power department.
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