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Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson: 8/29/22
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Brad Johnson
12:03
We'll get started in a few moments
Hader-aide
12:06
Man, what's up with Josh Hader?  I took him as the first closer off the board, is he droppable at this point?  Have I missed that train?
Brad Johnson
12:07
That's what I've been reading up on these last few minutes. I honestly haven't identified an issue. The stuff's still filthy. Maybe the Padres are calling less than ideal locations. Maybe he's being too predictable in when he uses certain pitches. I think, mostly, we're seeing epic bad luck leading to a lack of confidence.
Duncan Meyer
12:08
I traded Nick Lodolo and Michael Busch for Justin Verlander in dynasty. Should I be as thrilled as I am?
Brad Johnson
12:08
Well, he's nursing a calf injury of unknown severity. That said, I don't think you'll regret losing Lodolo and Busch has some hurdles to clear to become more than a merely decent player.
Marcus
12:09
In a keeper league, would you rather have India or Muncy for 2B?
Brad Johnson
12:10
I'm an India stan. The reports on his work ethic and ability to adjust are glowing. Muncy's no slouch either, but he might be starting to show his age.
12:11
Historically, guys who break out late (i.e. age 27) often fade early (i.e. early 30s)
I'm not actually that concerned though, just bringing it up as something to be mindful of.
Bryan
12:12
Corbin Carroll a must add?
Brad Johnson
12:12
Absolutely. He's a potential first-round talent.
Obviously, plenty of elite prospects come up and struggle at first. Others go bananas from jump. So there's risk and reward.
12:13
Remember, Julio Rodriguez was terrible in April.
Mike Trout was even pretty mediocre at first.
TxDude
12:13
Walker Buehler having TJ surgery is a pretty big blow for teams that own him in keeper leagues… should they still use a keeper spot on him or move on?
Brad Johnson
12:14
I think in most cases, you have to move on. It's one of the reasons pitchers are such precarious assets. They have too many injury types that can crater them from Top X to zero.
Guest
12:14
Vinnie Pasquinto or Jordan Walker in a dynasty league?
Brad Johnson
12:16
Oh that's a tough one! I really like Vinnie. I think he has a bit of an easier path to big power and RBI totals. Walker has some modest flaws that cause his raw power to play down, but he has some early-career SBs to balance that while he nudges his launch angle upwards.
In the 2 minutes I've chewed on it, I've gone back and forth 10 times. Call it a coin flip.
Walker irl fwiw.
Joe
12:16
Nearing the end of the season in Roto, have Ks, SVs, and Ws locked at 1st place, but ERA/WHIP is totally garbage - nearly last place.  Got any good strategies for working on those?  We spent most of our money on hitting, and our pitching starts with Ohtani and drops off a cliff into near-streaming territory (Montas, Strider, Kelly) in a 10 team auction roto league.
Brad Johnson
12:18
Just a little pushback - Strider is basically the same value as Ohtani as a pitcher this season.
12:19
The best you can do is acquire pitchers with good ERAs/WHIPs and hope they help. But you might be better off leaning into your other categories.
12:20
It's behind a paywall, but I wrote about some of these final stretch issues for Baseball HQ recently. https://www.baseballhq.com/content/rotisserie-preparing-final-stretch
12:21
The best you can hope for is about a 0.10 ERA or 0.02 WHIP improvement. You might actually get better, but that would require luck and other factors outside your control.
Miles
12:21
Josh Jung or Brett Baty for a keeper league?
Brad Johnson
12:21
I'd go with Jung.
12:22
Baty, in his present form, is a left-handed hitting Yandy Diaz with more strikeouts.
roto king
12:22
K. Marte, time to drop?
Brad Johnson
12:22
Not in 12-team mixed. Could be aggressive and move on in 10-team, I suppose.
12:23
As always, it's a matter of opportunity cost. Don't drop him just because you're fed up. Drop him because you can pick up a player who supplies more points ROS.
RAGBRAI
12:23
So Hader is droppable in all formats pretty much whoever the replacement is?
Brad Johnson
12:24
I really don't know about that. He basically still projects to be the best closer ROS. As I noted earlier, I can't find an issue that isn't extreme narrative-fitting to explain what seems like the most unlikely slump of the century.
In some ways, I'm reminded of Craig Kimbrel who's also had more than a few baffling slumps.
Topher
12:25
Nathaniel Lowe, I snagged him as a FA in our dynasty league last Monday (after trading Yelich for a very high draft pick  to open a spot for him) and I am feeling really good with this little trade off. Lowe seems to have really elevated his profile and his breakout looks real. What’s your take on him (and if you have time, Yelich as well)?  Thank you!
Brad Johnson
12:26
He's been growing fairly linearly since joining the Rangers, starting as a pretty middling 1B and slowly becoming something a little more desirable.
12:28
He's made a somewhat uncommon change in his approach. He's become a lot more aggressive when in the past his discipline has been his strength. For now, I think he's still being attacked like he's borderline passive, so the aggression is paying off. If he keeps swinging once pitchers start to nibble (it'll be very soon), then he'll slump and eventually revert to his disciplined approach.
Even so, it's good to see a guy make this adjustment because it means they have more than one mode. If a hitter can look at his scouting report and defeat it, they're that much deadlier.
12:29
In short, I like the pick up.
12:30
As for Yelich, he's still a mighty fine player, but those incredible power seasons seem to be in the rearview. He'll have his moments, but he's reverted to extreme ground ball tendencies in part because pitchers are letting him hit those grounders.
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