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FantasyPros Fantasy Baseball Chat (3/25)
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Steve
12:40
Am I wrong to think that ADP is an overrated piece of data?  Is it calculated using all of the online drafts from all of the various platforms that could be all using different rules (yahoo, ESPN, etc.)  If so, why would I be so sure that all those other "drafters" know what their doing?
Bobby Sylvester
12:42
ADP is important, not in the sense that other drafters know what they are doing, but so we know when we have to take a player we want before they are gone. For instance, I have a 5th round grade on Corey Kluber this year. He isn't going until the 9th or 10th round. So I can wait and take him in the 8th.
Sid Bream
12:42
Who do you think makes a jump to a first rounder next year
Bobby Sylvester
12:44
Essentially, who outside maybe the top 20 picks has a chance to perform like a top 12 fantasy asset this year: Adalberto Mondesi, Luis Robert, Kyle Tucker, Tyler Glasnow, Eloy Jimenez and let's go really deep for one more, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Andre
12:45
Hey Bobby....thanks for doing this. With a shortened season, how do you view prospects like Wander Franco and Nate Pearson? Does this help or hurt? Does this push timelines back to 2022? I would think it would make a team like the Rays go hard for this year given more randomness with fewer games. Where do prospects like Franco rank in a 10 team keeper league for 2020 where he hasn't been drafted yet because we only keep 5 players?
Bobby Sylvester
12:47
I imagine MLB teams play it very cautiously with young arms. I love Pearson and MacKenzie Gore, but I'm not expecting much at all from them at the MLB level considering the forced delay in their development. Franco, however, is an interesting one. Same with Dylan Carlson. I'm tempted to stash either or both knowing they could be a league-winner like we've seen from other fringe-draftable rookies in years prior (Alonso, Judge, Turner)
Brad
12:47
In a 12 team, H2H league, and a number six pick, who would you take if available in round 1?
Bobby Sylvester
12:48
This Juan Soto territory for me. I like him more than Mookie Betts this season. He was virtually the same player last year while Betts was in a better ballpark and lineup than he'll be in this year. Plus, his steals should keep dropping as he ages (went from 30 in 2018 to 16 in 2019). Soto, meanwhile, just turned 21 so we likely haven't seen anywhere close to the best from him yet.
Patrick
12:49
Garrett Hampson - how many AB's you think? Final stat line(prorated over full season)?
Bobby Sylvester
12:50
290 AB, .263 BA, 6 HR, 18 SB, 40 R, 32 RBI. Not a top 300 player, but his upside makes him interesting towards the end of drafts.
Dom
12:50
Thought on drafting Corey Knebel and stashing on IR? Maybe take over the closer role
Bobby Sylvester
12:50
I suppose it is possible but I won't have any shares. I'd rather draft and stash Jordan Hicks, who is near-certain to win the closer job when he comes back, and now, it will be sooner than later.
James
12:51
Would you keep Aaron Judge in the 3rd round of a 13 team keeper league?
Bobby Sylvester
12:51
Nope, I wouldn't take Judge until the late 4th so hopefully you have an alternative option to choose.
Stephen
12:52
Hi Bobby, first time player here. I was wondering what stats I should try to dominate and which I should sort of fade. Also, should I favor consistency or the players who had one big year and could maybe be on the rise? Thanks so much!
Bobby Sylvester
12:57
Q1: It depends on your league settings. If you have no IP minimum and 2 SPs or less required on your active roster, use the Marmol (punt Wins and Ks then dominate the other 8: https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/02/marmol-strategy-2020-fantasy-baseb...). Otherwise, if you draft pick 1-4 (Yelich, Acuna, Trout, Bellinger) then go with the Bichette Strategy (if your league doesn't have an inning maxium or waiver pickup max or weekly rosters. You'll be punting ERA and WHIP: https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/02/bichette-strategy-2020-fantasy-bas...). Otherwise, go Pocket Rockets and punt either BA (if you get Degrom/Harper to open your draft), SB (if you get Trout or Soto to open your draft) or Sv (if you get Yelich/Acuna/Bellinger to open your draft): https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/02/pocket-rockets-2020-fantasy-baseba...
12:58
As for Q2: It depends on the player. Guys like Flaherty, Tatis, Bichette and Will Smith all have small sample sizes that are being overblown. They weren't anywhere near as good in the minors and frankly, the underlying metrics suggest they were all extremely lucky. Then you'd got youngsters like Tucker/Kingery/Senzel/Urias who should explode beyond what we've seen so far. I do like consistency though (Cruz, McCutchen, L Cain, Bumgarner, Andrus, etc)
This is Lude-i-cris
12:58
Auction draft tonight! After keepers McCullers is by far the best pitcher available. I have $$. Give me a reason to stop bidding.
Bobby Sylvester
12:59
I won't. I LOVE McCullers now that season is likely to be shortened. Hope you get him.
Tom
12:59
Hey Bobby, what current non-closers do you see as potentially stealing closer jobs in season?
Bobby Sylvester
1:01
Hunter Harvey, Matt Barnes, Ryan Helsley, Jose Alvarado
Jimmy
1:01
What is your dream podcast? What guests and topics would be included?
Bobby Sylvester
1:03
I get to live out my dream, fortunately and talk about most everything I'd love to talk about, but what I'd most love to do is a non-fantasy a podcast with Joe Pisapia where we pretend to do an expansion draft. Each of us has our own team and there is a player pool based on prior expansion draft settings. I expect to turn this into an article sooner than later.
Dom
1:04
Will Josh James remain in the rotation all year or should I pick up Rich Hill
Bobby Sylvester
1:04
I love Josh James but I don't imagine he will be in the rotation now that Verlander should be back by the time the season starts. Rich Hill is the better pitcher and a better bet for innings
1:05
Alright, everyone. That's all for today's chat. Thank you so much for jumping in and I look forward to the next session. Apologies for not being able to get to every question! Hit me on Twitter whenever you want @bobbyfantasypro and I'll get to as many as I'm able to. Have a great week!
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