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FantasyPros Fantasy Baseball Chat (5/20)
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Bobby Sylvester
1:09
Hey everyone, I'm Bobby Sylvester, host of the FantasyPros Baseball Pocast. I'll be answering all of your questions today for the next hour. Thanks for coming in!
Redbull44
1:09
Aaron Nola? Do you consider him an Ace or a #2?
Bobby Sylvester
1:10
An MLB ace, sure, but not a top 12 fantasy SP for me. His underlying metrics suggest he performed over his head last year and that the ratios will take a hit in 2020. I'd prefer Tyler Glasnow, for instance.
Redbull44
1:10
Can Frankie Montas realize his full potential in 2020 after his suspension?
Bobby Sylvester
1:15
I actually don't necessarily believe in the concept of realizing full potential in baseball. Baseball is such a mental game that afterthought prospects like Dallas Kuechel with "limited potential" can breakout and win the Cy Young. Fringe roster candidates like J.D. Martinez with 900 terrible MLB plate appearances can morph into a perennial Triple-Crown threat. So I wouldn't say we can quantify Montas' potential. He was a 6.0 K/9 guy in 2018 who suddenly blew up into a 9.4 K/9 guy. He figured something out and certainly has the capability to repeat that but what if there is yet another gear for him to find? He is currently the #31 SP off the board which seems about right to me but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he finished top 10 or if he finished outside the top 50. I'd prefer a safer bet like Mad-Bum in that range
Redbull44
1:16
Can Starlin Castro hold down a middle of that order spot in the line up and have break out year in Washington?
Bobby Sylvester
1:17
The ballpark translation alone makes Castro's 22 homers likely to bump to 26-28 range. He plays every day every single year and is a career .280 hitter so not only do I think a career year is possible, but I'd wager it is likely in that ballpark and lineup.
Micah
1:17
Who are your favorite high upside dart throws in a deep mixed roto league (384 players drafted)?
Bobby Sylvester
1:18
I'll give you 10 guys outside the top 300 ADP
1:20
Howie Kendrick
MacKenzie Gore
Hunter Harvey
Domingo Santana
Jordan Hicks
Sam Hilliard
Rich Hill
Josh Lindblom
Tyler O'Neill
Clint Frazier
Franklin Barreto
Isan Diaz
ELIESER HERNANDEZ
Whoops, that's 13
Red
1:21
With guys like Rich Hill and Wil Myers getting more valuable would you drop Mitch Keller or Amed Rosario for them?
Bobby Sylvester
1:21
I like all 4 but I'm keeping Rosario for sure. Hill and Keller are a tossup but I lean Hill
Charlotte
1:21
Hypothetically speaking...if Kiner-Falefa were to wrestle away the Rangers starting 3B gig in Spring Training 2.0, where would you rank him as a Catcher? Would he be a better choice as a 2nd catcher than Tom Murphy?
Bobby Sylvester
1:22
C #21 behind d'Arnaud, Posey and yes, Tom Murphy
Tad
1:22
OF Franchy Cordero SD. Do tell...potential power/speed breakout?
Bobby Sylvester
1:23
Tantalizing skill-set, no doubt but I'm not seeing an easy path to playing time, plus he hasn't put it together even in the minors where he batted .203/.277/.458 last year. He is outside my top 500 overall
MJ
1:23
Among 20/20 minor players of last year, Who is the most probable 20/20 players at MLB in a near future? Assume Dynasty League

J Kelenic(A,A+,AA) 23/20, D Carlson(AA, AAA) 19/22, Jeter Downs(A+, AA) 24/24,
Jazz Chrisholm(AA) 21/16, Sam Hilliard(AAA) 35/22, Jake Fraley(AA, AAA) 19/22,
Jorge Marte(AAA) 19/24, Daulton Varsho(AA), 18/21
Bobby Sylvester
1:26
Kelenic is a future MVP candidate but he won't be a 20-steal guy in the bigs. Think of him more as a Nomar Garciaparra but in the outfield: .330 BA, 25 HR, 12 SB

Hilliard could do it if he gets enough playing time (doubtful) while batting .240ish, but Carlson is the easy pick for me. He is one of my favorite late round players right now because of the impending addition of the DH in the NL.Carlson SHOULD go 20/20 this year while batting .275. He is a potential league-winner.
Steffen
1:26
who is one player you could see completely falling off, but not because of their age?
Bobby Sylvester
1:30
It would have to be a pitcher, as is much more often the case. It could be a Yu Darvish type of situation where they tip their pitches or a Sonny Gray situation where a new pitching coach changes his repertoire. It could be a Mad Bum situation where underlying metrics explain that he is extremely unlucky or a David Price situation where he pitches through injury.

Taking all of those situations out, though, I'd say the most likely player is someone like Lucas Giolito, who we've seen struggle mightily at times...he also tailed off at the end of the year
Henry
1:30
Good afternoon. I was planning on adding a middle relief, potential save vulture to my bench. How do you feel about the likelihood that Rafael Montero could unseat José LeClerq in Texas?
Bobby Sylvester
1:31
Montero is a very interesting name! I prefer Hunter Harvey or Ryan Helsely, though, if they are available
Keith
1:31
Hello. Thoughts on J.A. Happ? Possible return to decent starter?
Bobby Sylvester
1:32
Decent is the right word, as that is his upside. Unless you are in an AL only league or a 20 teamer, Id never recommend getting a SP of his profile. Rather, draft an upside guy in that range like Daniel Norris or Josh Lindblom. Happ is no better than a streamer so if push comes to shove, you can just drop Lindblom for a steamer like Happ
Orville
1:32
Do you think Jake Fraley could pull off an Oscar Mercado type rookie season? Prorated to 82-ish games of course. What percent chance do you give it?
Bobby Sylvester
1:33
Great name and great potential comp. They are very similar types of players and there is a potential path to playing time for Fraley. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he is that random dude in June that everyone is scratching their head wondering where he came from. I'd put it at 15-20%
Donnell
1:34
With a shortened MLB season upon us, do you believe it’s more likely for the “best” teams to pull away from the pack or will more “middling” teams surprise and contend for a title.
Bobby Sylvester
1:36
So if I were to run 10,000 simulations of a 162 game season, then use the same exact rosters to sim 10,000 simulations of an 81 game season, there would be many more instances in the 81 game season where a mediocre team like the Diamondbacks beats the Dodgers or Mets pull out the NL East title. The larger the sample-size, the more data normalizes. The same is true for fantasy players so don't be shocked if someone like Jose Ramirez or Charlie Blackmon is extraordinarily hot for three months and finishes as the #1 player in fantasy baseball over Trout/Acuna/Bellinger
Justin
1:36
M Canha or CJ Cron, who you like best thanks! .
Bobby Sylvester
1:37
Extremely similar value so it depends on if you need runs (Canha) or RBIs (Cron) in the last few rounds.
Dont Ban the Phanatic
1:37
How many points will put me in the money in my 12 team 5 x 5 roto league? Top four get paid.
Bobby Sylvester
1:37
You'll need to sit around that 78-83 mark to squeeze into the top 4. 90ish will win the league
Steffen
1:38
Picking 7th in 15 team h2h dynasty startup. What is my dream(and realistic) 5 round start?
Bobby Sylvester
1:39
Yelich could fall to 7
Vlad Jr in the 2nd
Devers in the 3rd
Eloy in the 4th
Scherzer in the 5th
Xavier
1:39
Who is one player you will not take even if they are available 50 spots below their ADP
Bobby Sylvester
1:40
Hader and Yates are both close. Bichette and Woodruff come to mind but Tommy Edman is the slam dunk answer for me
Jimmy
1:40
What is your favorite type of podcast to do?
Bobby Sylvester
1:41
on the baseball show, bold predictions. for football, NFL Mock Draft with trades
Mark
1:41
I really like the idea of adding Carlson or Myers at end of my draft, what round would you pull the trigger in ten teamer? Thanks!
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