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FantasyPros Fantasy Baseball Chat (5/6)
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Dan Harris
1:00
Hello, friends! Baseball certainly appears to be on its way back, so let's talk some fantasy. All questions welcomed!
Redbull44
1:01
Your thoughts on Zach Plesac in 2020? Thanks.
Dan Harris
1:03
Meh. I mean, first, I assume he's going to have a rotation spot despite being optioned to the minors? But with Carrasco and Clevinger healthy and Plutko probably entrenched, there's only one spot up for grabs. Assuming it's his, I'm still not particularly interested. Not enough strikeout upside to warrant much of a look, and nearly a 5.00 FIP and xFIP last year. I'd pass.
Fast Eddie
1:03
Better to take a chance on Spencer Howard instead of older, injured pitchers such as Cole Hamels, Miles Mikolas or Rich Hill late in the draft?
Dan Harris
1:04
I'll be taking about Howard this week on the Leading Off podcast, and I definitely think he's a target now with the impact of the delayed start. I don't have particularly strong feelings about him against those other guys, to be honest, though. Hill is also a big riser with the delay, as is Hamels. Mikolas' lack of strikeouts always makes me push him to the back of the line, but I'd have Howard in the range of the former two.
Steve
1:04
In or out on a full breakout season for Dansby Swanson?
Dan Harris
1:05
In between. I don't think he's as good as we saw last year pre-injury, and certainly not nearly as bad as we saw post-injury. But I do think he's been undervalued in draft season, and should be a very solid MI option overall.
MJ
1:05
Which pitching data is most useful for future performance. 1. xFIP(or SIERA), 2. K-BB, 3. SwStr, 4. pitch velocity, 5. 2nd half  performance. 6. zone+1st strike, 7. wOBA. please pick 2-3 items(or others) you preferred
Dan Harris
1:08
Good question! Swinging Strike rate is always one of my top options because I think it not only legitimizes past success, but it's also an excellent predictor of future success. Strikeout-to-walk rate is also a fairly simple but generally useful stat for me, and it's one of the first places I look when I begin my projections. Truth be told, you really need to look at them all, put them into a giant cauldron, and cook your soup. But if I had to pick the two ingredients I look at most often, it's those.
RK
1:08
Hi Bobby.  I have some surplus at SS (Bregman, Bichette, Swanson) and was thinking of trading Bichette for Nelson Cruz.  I love Bichette, but Cruz's Statcast dominance and long track record of excellence makes him seem like a safer option.  Steals are scarce, but I'd still be mid-pack in steals without Bichette (Jose Ramirez, Albies, Eaton, Ozuna, Braun, Myers, and Swanson should all steal 10+ bags in a normal season).  Would you trade Bichette for Cruz if you were me?
Dan Harris
1:10
Hey RK. Just FYI, Bobby was scheduled today, but he's a bit under the weather so I'm pinch-hitting. In a redraft league, sure, I'm fine with that. I legitimately have Cruz two spots ahead of Bichette in my rankings anyway, so I'd have no problem with it regardless of the context.
Drewminator
1:10
In a 10-team 5x5 league, what side of this trade do you like better?  Luis Robert, Marcus Semien, Mallex Smith, and Mike Moustakas; or Mookie Betts, Rhys Hoskins, Bryan Reynols, and Yasiel Puig?
Dan Harris
1:11
Blurg. The problem is obviously that Puig could legitimately be useless. But still, I'm taking the latter side in a 10-teamer. You get the best player, and as I have talked about ad nauseum, I am super bullish on Hoskins. I have no problem with the first side. But 10 teams, I'll take Betts and co.
Lugnutz48
1:11
Hello. 14-team Roto keeper league. I was offered Luis Castillo CIN for C J.T. Realmuto PHI & J.A. Happ NYY in two catcher set-up. I have Tom Murphy SEA as #2 catcher and Kiner-Falifa TEX on bench. My top two starters are deGrom & Corbin with Lamet/Stroman as #3/#4 starters. Thoughts on accepting?
Dan Harris
1:14
I don't have super strong feelings on it, but I'd probably take it.As good as Realmuto is, I'm loathe to tie myself long-term to catchers, and he's already 29 years old. Castillo has a long-term future and I'd rather build up an uber-strong pitching staff with Castillo backing deGrom and Corbin, particularly in a 14-team league where you'll probably have the best staff in your league. But I wouldn't crush you if you took the Realmuto side.
Jennifer
1:14
Hi! I'm in a redraft mixed Roto league. I was offered Aaron Nola for Amed Rosario and Ryan McMahon. I could use pitching. Have Bichette as SS, Rosario MI. Click yes?
Dan Harris
1:15
Oh yes, that's not real close in my mind, even with how much I like McMahon. Add Nola.
Will
1:15
Good afternoon. Mixed roto, 14 teams. I went the cheap closers route and drafted Melancon, Kennedy, Harvey, but also grabbed TJ returnees Knebel & Hicks after our draft for bench roles. In your humble opinion, did I do well to manage saves/potential saves?
Dan Harris
1:16
In a 14-teamer, you have two closers plus a possible (likely?) third in Harvey - that's ahead of the curve. I honestly do not expect Knebel or Hicks to factor much into the save equation, but I think you did well enough with your top 3. And, you know there will be turnover anyway, so you should not be concerned at all.
Marcus
1:16
Does Oscar Mercado have another level? 15/25 perhaps? 20/20? Penny for your thoughts on the youngster?
Dan Harris
1:18
I like Mercado, but I don't necessarily think he takes a huge leap. Remember, the 15 homers he hit last year were more than he had hit in any minor-league season, and he doesn't make particularly good contact. But he'll certainly steal, so I'm more on a 15-20 season - and he has elite spring speed at 29.5 ft/s so he could go even challenge 30 bags if things break right. But I don't necessarily expect a breakout.
Davis
1:18
I'm thinking that Giants 2B/OF Mauricio Dubon could be a stealth late late draft pick. Not out of the realm of possibility for him to put up .270/20/85/60/15. Are we seeing eye to eye?
Dan Harris
1:20
I do like him as a late-round pick, for sure. I don't think he's quite got 20-homer power in the majors, and because he's projected to bat eighth, the runs total is probably too high. But I do think he can be ownable and startable in standard mixed leagues.
Colten
1:21
True or False: Yonny Chirinos top 60 starter? Could you offer your opinion on the young buck/Ray?
Dan Harris
1:23
False. Chirinos is a fine MLB pitcher, but his fantasy value will probably never match his real-life value. He doesn't strike out enough batters (roughly 7.5 per nine), his ERA will likely hover in the high 3s, and he may even LOSE win potential if he acts more as a traditional starter this year, as has been rumored. Just not enough upside to take him as a top-60 starter in fantasy for me.
Roger Dodger
1:23
I drafted Corbin Burnes MIL late for one of my bench spots in 6x6 Roto league with K/9% as sixth category after typical 5x5. Do you think he could blossom into a #4/5 starter? Is it possible he makes rotation and Brewers simply go with six starters from Opening Day?
Dan Harris
1:25
I love Burnes, really. I was so disappointed last year when he just couldn't control the homers. I think his chances of  making the rotation are probably minimal at the start, but I do think the Brewer would love it if he gave them no choice. Depending on how the schedule breaks down, it's possible the Brewers (and other teams) need to go with six starters. But, overall, I'm not currently expecting Burnes to make the rotation, though I am keeping my eye on him.
Brad
1:25
Guessing 100 game season. You grabbing pitching or hitting early? Rotisserie. Any change in strategy if divisions and ballparks change or only slight variance to player values and not worth over thinking?
Dan Harris
1:28
As a general matter, I think all pitchers should be pushed down a bit. A big chunk of the value of the top starters like Cole, Verlander, deGrom, etc., is that they provide elite ratios and plenty of innings. The innings part of their value will be mitigated somewhat by the truncated schedule and, as such, their value as against most hitters and other pitchers decreases. That said, I still want to get three of my top 25 or so, so I'll play the board as it comes. Re: strategy, I mean, you can certainly bump up pitchers from the AL East a bit, etc., but overall, until we know what the plan is, I'm not overthinking it yet.
Rodney
1:28
Can Nate Pearson pull a Paddack if given the nod from Opening Day? Instant top 40 starter or better?
Dan Harris
1:29
Oh man, I am so hopeful here. I don't know if I'd draft Pearson as a top-40 starter if we knew he was in the rotation from the get-go, but that's probably around the range. I think the delayed start certainly gives him the chance of a Paddack-like season, and with innings limit concerns obviated by the delay, I am drafting him everywhere.
Charlie
1:29
2020 Fantasy MVP. Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. Top 20 performer at top 150 price. Thoughts?
Dan Harris
1:31
I would say highly unlikely but not out of the realm of conceivable possibilities. He was incredible after coming back to the majors last year and if he continued that pace over a full season, then he's obviously got a shot. But one of my potential flaws as an analyst and a player is that I'm loathe to buy into a player after one really good season or, in Gurriel's case, more like a half season. I'm not avoiding Gurriel by any means. But not predicting the crazy breakout just yet.
Redbull44
1:31
I’m in a deep league. 14 teams, 28 rounds. I need help at catcher. If you had to choose between D. Jansen and S. Murphy who would you take a flier on and why? Thanks.
Dan Harris
1:34
I really like both TBH. Have Murphy 15th and Jansen 17th, so you can't go wrong. But have Murphy slightly higher, if for no other reason than we haven't seen that disastrous half season in the majors that we did from Jansen. Expecting solid seasons from both, don't want to dissuade anyone from Jansen. But given Murphy's excellent showing in Triple-A last year and his ability to hold his walk rate in is cup of coffee in the majors, I narrowly have him higher.
Amanda
1:34
Hello. How strong do you feel about a top 12 catcher season on the cheap forthcoming from Jason Castro? Average will be .235, but I'm predicting 20 home runs, 70 ribbies.
Dan Harris
1:36
Not buying it, honestly. Castro has power, obviously, and he's always shown it. But even if he got enough plate appearances to get to 20 homers (which I wouldn't expect), can't see the 70 RBI pace over a full season. He's likely going to bat ninth, so RBI opportunities won't be flowing. Hard for me to see him being top 12.
Bryan
1:36
Jake Fraley or Franchy Cordero for last bench roster spot in Roto? Please explain. Thank you.
Dan Harris
1:39
It's Fraley for me, but not by a ton. He has more upside, but it's more that I expect more speed from Fraley, as he could easily pop a 15-20 season. The Mariners offense won't be terrible with Evan White, Kyle Lewis, and Mallex Smith probably surrounding Fraley in the batting order, so I expect him to have enough counting stats to warrant late-round consideration in deeper leagues. And again, in roto, speed is a premium, so anyone who has the potential for 20 is worth a look.
Carlos
1:39
Kolten Wong. Finally a mixed league starter? Or, just a prior season mini-breakout tease? I play in a roto, 14-teamer.
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