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FantasyPros Fantasy Football Chat (4/16)
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Mike Maher
1:00
Hey, everyone! Thanks for stopping by to chat today. We already have a ton of questions in the queue, and I'll get to as many as I can over the next hour.
If I don't get to your question or if you just want to talk football, feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher any time!
Ok, let's get started!
Mike S.
1:01
Hey Mike! I’m in a 16-team Dynasty league: half PPR, single QB, one flex, with IDPs. I have a bit of a hole in my roster at TE. My first pick in our rookie draft will be the 2.16. I won the league in 2019 and 2020 with essentially the roster I have now, but this won’t last forever. Two other strong teams in similar roster positions (including a division rival) have late first round picks that I think  would take Kyle Pitts if available, so my question falls on two trains of thought: roster improvement and blocking roster improvement of current challengers.
Help me bring home the three-peat! 🏆 Thanks!
Do I trade up into first round for Kyle Pitts or sit back and wait my turn?
Mike Maher
1:01
First, congrats on the big victory. I would imagine that Kyle Pitts is going to go very early in this format, so the price of moving all the way up from 2.16 would be my first concern. But if the price isn't prohibitive, I'm all for shooting your shot for a high-ceiling guy at a shallow position like Pitts/tight end.
Guest
1:02
What is D’Andre Swift’s ceiling? With the lack of receivers in Detroit & Lynn coming from LA with Ekeler & Campbell coming from NOLA with Kamara, is it realistic to expect 65+ receptions?
Mike Maher
1:02
I don't like to focus TOO much on roster construction before we see what happens in the draft, but I get your point. I have Swift in my Top 15 for RB, and I think he has an easily attainable ceiling of RB1. One name you didn't mention was Duce Staley, and he did an incredible job with running backs in Philadelphia. Most importantly, he helps running backs do everything well so that they can stay on the field in all situations. With Staley developing Swift and helping him become a better all-around back and the Lions presumably committing to the run, I'm all in on Swift this year.
Guest
1:02
Is Pittsburgh the best landing spot for one of the rookie running backs? And what’s the upside if Harris or Etienne goes there?
Mike Maher
1:03
I don't know about best, but they are certainly up there. Both of those backs are probably going to go in the Top 5 in dynasty drafts because of their position and upside regardless of the landing spot. And if they land in a good spot like Pittsburgh, I could see them both easily being drafted in RB2 range in redraft formats.
Guest
1:03
Any concerns about Jordan Howard signing with Philly? What does that mean for Miles Sanders?
Mike Maher
1:04
Not really, no. They just don't really have any other running backs on the roster besides Sanders, and they really needed (and probably still need?) another back they can use if Sanders gets hurt. Boston Scott wasn't cutting it. Howard is also a decent grind-it-out end-of-game running back for when they have a good lead, but I wouldn't worry about him taking any snaps/touches away from Sanders. Don't be scared when they draft a running back, either.
Guest
1:04
With the Ravens not adding any real wide receiver of note, should we be looking at Brown as a WR3?
Mike Maher
1:04
For now, sure. Just know he might frustrate you with inconsistency from time to time in that offense.
Guest
1:04
With the lack of receivers in Detroit & Campbell being a former tight end, what are the chances Hockenson has a Darren Waller type of season in terms of target share?
Mike Maher
1:05
I know you aren't comparing Hockenson to Waller, but I think Hockenson should be solidly in that second tier of tight ends that gets drafted after Kelce, Kittle, Waller, and Andrews.
Guest
1:06
If the 49ers go Justin Fields, is he & not Lawrence, the rookie QB with the most upside? I mean, Shanahan >> Meyer & SF >> Jax?
Mike Maher
1:06
Depends on if we are talking dynasty or redraft. But also, this meshes with one of my biggest pre-draft talking points for these players: landing spot matters. Especially for fantasy, be careful not to fall too in love with your grade(s) on a player before we see where he is going to be playing.
You could certainly make the argument you are making (though I question the true fantasy upside for a QB in the Shanahan offense), but also don't discredit the draft capital the Jaguars have. Their roster is going to look much different in a few weeks.
Guest
1:07
Who’s the no.1 pick this season in dynasty
Mike Maher
1:07
In rookie-only dynasty drafts? Probably Najee Harris.
Guest
1:08
Where do you think Kenny G goes in ppr leagues?
Mike Maher
1:09
I think you are going to see a fairly large variance there. NY/NJ players always move up the boards because of the media attention. Some will love the landing spot and the volume. Others will be concerned with the QB/offense. I have him just outside of WR1 territory
Guest
1:09
dynasty trade: get D.Adams give 1.01 and juju. 10 team PPR.
Mike Maher
1:10
Depends on the rest of your squad obviously, but yes. I'd do that.
Guest
1:10
Dynasty draft, who am I taking with the 3rd pick?
Mike Maher
1:10
Assuming Harris and Etienne are gone, I would take Pitts
Guest
1:11
What do you expect the split to be between Dobbins & Edwards? After Ingram moved to the bench, it was a 55/45 carry split with Dobbins leading the way, but this puts Dobbins at about 200(ish) carries & there’s very little receiving work in Baltimore for RB’s. Does Dobbins really have RB1 potential or is he being overvalued?
Mike Maher
1:11
I think some of that split had to do with Dobbins being a rookie, and I expect them to lean on him more this season. He definitely has RB1 potential, especially in an offense that should create plenty of space for him.
Guest
1:11
Assuming the Saints & Packers don’t add anyone of note to their receiving room... who has more targets, Davante Adams or Michael Thomas? I mean, both look like locks for 175+ with the 17 game schedule, assuming they’re both healthy. Is Thomas’ insane expected target share undervaluing him?
Mike Maher
1:12
If we assume both stay healthy, I have Adams way ahead of Thomas. Also, are we sure that Thomas is still a lock for those targets? That New Orleans offense could look very different this year. The Brees-Thomas connection was deadly because they were perfect for each other. I have concerns about usage, volume, and quarterback play for him in 2021. Adams still has Rodgers for at least one more year and saw 149 targets and scored 18 touchdowns in 14 games last season.
Guest
1:12
Who are some of your late round tight end targets that you think could be a top 10 guy? Let’s say guys ranked 14+. Any guys stand out with the best chances of getting into the top 10.
Mike Maher
1:13
Some of this will depend on the draft and any moves that get made over the next few weeks, obviously. But Cole Kmet is a name to watch. Zach Ertz is currently at 20, but his ECR and ADP are going to jump if he gets moved to the Colts or Bills and has a starting job. I also like the Hayden Hurts potential in that new offense in Atlanta.
Guest
1:13
Should I trade CEH for MT in Ppr keeper league
cool 1 trophy 1
Mike Maher
1:14
I AM nervous about Michael Thomas and do like CEH more than most, but I would still prefer the MT side of this one
Dolfandan1972
1:15
Should I draft one of the top 3 TE with 2nd round #20 pick.
Mike Maher
1:16
In redraft, I probably wouldn't, depending on how the board looks. But that is a pretty standard strategy for me. I don't reach for positions, especially a position like TE. I'm fine streaming or looking for value in the later rounds and prefer that to overpaying because of position scarcity
Guest
1:16
What Would you look for in return for Watson? Dynasty. I have Jackson and Stafford as well.
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Mike Maher
1:17
Honestly, you'd be selling way low. You are better off waiting if you can. If you really want to move him, you have to treat him as someone who is going to miss some time but then return to being one of the more valuable QBs in fantasy. And if no one wants to give you that for him, then hold.
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