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Feb 15, 2021 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:02
Good day, chatters! As I mentioned on Twitter today, much going on here as we all ramp up for pitchers and catchers this week. Thanks for joining; I’ll get to as many of these as I can. Reminder that when asking a question, often a brief context of your league - depth, player pool, “off” categories, etc — will help me give the best answer. Away we go!
The Straw
12:06
With all things being fairly EQUAL....such as injury history, playing time%, Pwr, Spd, metrics,  similiar 2021 BHQ $$ value,  etc... WHICH hitter at same position do You want to roster most of the time & why? The 30 year old steady & savvy veteran.....OR...... the 23 year old 2nd year player w/to be determined upside ?
Brent Hershey
12:06
Things are never equal, LOL, and I am going to put two pieces of context into my answer: At the top of the draft, or if I'm paying a higher auction price, then I most definitely want the established veteran. And often you can get him a bit below the going rate b/c so many are (sometimes, rightfully) infatuated with Next Big Thing. As the draft/auction moves on, then I take my calculated shots at the younger skilled guy with upside. It's a balance throughout, though -- and not sure there's one right answer.
Jeremy Gibbs
12:09
How do you expect the Padres to use their bullpen?  1 closer?  or more like the Rays where several guys get multiple saves this season?
Brent Hershey
12:09
The way the group is now, I'd say multiple saves guys is most likely. I prob like Pomeranz best out of that group; he's the guy who I think COULD emerge as the preferred go-to. But there's multiple guys with skills there, so I'd be careful about acquisition price with any of them -- with what we know now about their potential usage patterns
Rob
12:14
I have never played in an OBP league - my longtime keeper league is replacing BA with the category this year. What should I keep in mind when drafting (10-team roto) and which BA-league drag players become attractive in this format? THanks!
Brent Hershey
12:14
Pretty simple, but I would start getting familiar with hitters' walk rates (bb%). Get a data set, sort by that category, and just take notice of who bubbles to the top -- as well as who grades out a tick or two higher than the 9% league average. And noticing players who have done this multiple times in their career. Obv the walk thing is not 1:1 for OBP, but familiarity w/ it will set you up for success better. Cavan Biggio is the first guy who comes to mind who gets a bump
Dean
12:17
Hi Brent. Thanks for doing these chats. HQ seems to like Jared Walsh's power ceiling and the profit he could deliver in 2021. Thoughts on him in a 10-team 5x5 league?
Brent Hershey
12:17
Yes, right now the front-runner for time at 1B in LAA. I'd be a bit careful of overvaluing him in a 10-teamer, where the offensive bar is higher. As an older player without a long track record; ideally would like to see him sustain for an entire season. Likely one for the end-game radar in your situation, but would not chase.
Ryan
12:23
Which players outside the top 200 are you targeting most in these early drafts and why?
Brent Hershey
12:23
Yusei Kikucki - way better underlying skills than 2020 results; Jordan Montgomery also pitched to some bad luck; like the surging K metrics; and depending on 1- or 2-C leagues, I'm still interested in Garver and even Danny Jansen (also guys w/ hints of metrics that were better than 2020 outcomes.)
Kujo
12:25
I've been a big fan of Freddy Peralta as a sleeper the last several years and have been somewhat burned. Is it worth plunging in again with a late-round dart throw?

I have pairs of SP1s (Cole/Bieber & deGrom/Buehler) in both of my keeper leagues, so I'm not too worried about being dependent on Peralta, in case he blows up.
Brent Hershey
12:25
This is the best-case scenario for taking someone like F Peralta IMO. "Late-round dart throw" is your key phrase here. As long as you treat him like that and don't get overly attached during the season, he's a fine pick
Katman
12:31
Trying to figure out what draft value might exist on the Rockies, but it seems like such a crapshoot. Rodgers, Hilliard, and Hampson could have some post hype value; McMahon may get a small bump because he moves up in the order and qualifies all over the infield. But all have playing time and performance risk. Your take on nuggets in this cesspool?
Brent Hershey
12:31
Do nuggets exist in a cesspool?? I mean, there may well be some in this situation, but the Rockies' recent haphazard track record of trying to integrate/develop some interesting young talent into MLB contributors has me wary of taking any significant shots on any of these guys for 2021. So yeah, we can justify all of these guys rationally like you've done—and that's not wrong—it's just we can't predict the opportunities here. (And of course you know I'm not implicating you, Katman, in this mess!) But in most cases with the players above, I'm only taking late-round shots b/c I have no confidence in how they will be used. And if one of em pops on a competitor's roster, so be it.
Jeremy Gibbs
12:34
Do you anticipate top prospects getting called up in June or later to receive extra seasoning? If earlier, which ones?
Brent Hershey
12:34
I'm not sure this year is any different in that regard. Under the current rules, teams are incentivized for gaining that extra year of control. Wander Franco, Jarred Kelenic, MacKenzie Gore likely all on this list. Great for keeper/dynasty leagues; less so for 2021-only leagues.
Steve
12:37
Thoughts on Dylan Carlson? Seems like the path to PT is there and he hit cleanup for the Cards for two weeks in September.
Brent Hershey
12:37
Yeah, I think he's up to stay, and things were VERY encouraging, to say the least, after his mid-season furlough to the ALT site. Think he's a multi-category contributor, maybe not a superstar-level performer for fantasy, but very solid and a rookie-eligible guy who you can count on more than some given his 2020 exposure.
Glenn
12:42
Rank this mid-draft OF cluster (for HR, RBI, R, SB, OBP categories): Carlson, Yastrzemski, Mancini, Moore, Happ, Winker.
Brent Hershey
12:42
Yaz (big fan for 2021) / Happ / Winker (best OBP of group by far ) / Carlson / Moore (worst OBP) / Mancini
Peter
12:46
Last week it was reported that MLB was deadening the ball+addition of humidors. It's still super early but is there anyone you're second guessing because of this?
Brent Hershey
12:46
We had an article on this up at our site on Friday (subscription required) with some details. My general take: First, I'm not sure that effects will be that noticeable — IOW enough that it would change my draft strategy.  Second, With all the weird machinations (often in secret) the past few years re: the ball construction, I'm not sure I even trust MLB to do what they are saying the goal is here.  So yeah, could be some changes on the edges—take note of exit velocity an average FB distance if you want to dig into it—but I'm yet to be fully convinced it's actionable with what we know right now.
Randy
12:48
Do you feel your projected 174 innings for Luzardo is a bit extreme considering in 2019 he pitched a total of 56 and in 2020 a total of 59?
Brent Hershey
12:48
Ooooo ... yeah, this is on the edge for sure given everything with the circumstances, his injury history, youth, etc. Will take that into account and discuss before our next update. Thanks for the tip!
Tutuola
12:54
Who most likely comes out on top in the Rangers bullpen?
Brent Hershey
12:54
As in ... leads the team in saves? Or is the closer by the end of the year? (Different questions, really). I'd approach the TEX bullpen like this: LeClerc, for whatever reason, seems to be THE GUY now. But given where TEX is in their rebuild, AND given LeClerc's chronic aversion to the strike zone (that historical bb% is not pretty), I just don't see him lasting the season without an adjustment. And say he does adjust, have stretch ... I'll be TEX attempts to flip him. The guy I've got my eye on in that pen in J Hernández; who was good in stretches last year (his first 'full' season); powerful FB/SL combo and looks the part. But does he emerge this year? For now, one of these late dart throws on rosters where I can afford to stash him
Llamas for Mamas
12:59
Does the Giles signing put a damper on "future closer" hopes for Andres Munoz?
Brent Hershey
12:59
Closerramma! Giles signing prob doesn't help Muñoz in that sense, no. But remember we can't just assume all the TJS guys return healthy and to their former selves - and again, here's a team still looking for an identity, and often bullpen roles come later in that trek. With Montero there for now, I'm interested in Muñoz somewhat, but with what we know now, he'd be behind someone like Jo Hernández in my end-gamers longshots.  With all these pens, so much can be /will be gleaned from spring training.
Brent Hershey
1:01
That's a wrap .. thanks, all, for another great week. Feel free to follow/ask additional Qs over on Twitter, @BrentHQ. At baseballhq.com, be sure to check out all the goodies there .. including subscription options, as well as our virtual fantasy baseball conference in several weeks, First Pitch Florida Online. Some great announcements today and this week on sessions all kinds of industry speakers. We'll be back next week; see ya then!
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