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Feb 8, 2021 Chat
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Brent Hershey
2:00
Happy Day After, all!! Things on the baseball front happening like crazy, and we’re here for it. A FREE read today over at BaseballHQ on what’s in store: https://www.baseballhq.com/content/gms-office-2021-preseason-plan. Head over there AFTER the chat; for now, let’s buzz through these questions. Thanks for joining!
Ryan
2:04
Framber Valdez vs. Frankie Montas. Both seem to have some nice upside but with volatility/warts. Which one would you take and why?
Brent Hershey
2:04
Framber for me, fairly easily, though key is going to be if the improved control holds. And I like Montas a bit more than our $7 projection, but head-to-head, give me Valdez, who was even better than his surface stats in that crazy 2020 season.
Dean
2:10
Last week you answered a question about the upper-tier crop of 1B. My league drafts from ESPN's roto rankings sheet and right now, Josh Bell is plugged in the late 190s. Thoughts on him as a starting 1B in an OBP league, if I can't get Olson or Goldschmidt?
Brent Hershey
2:10
Thanks for the return visit! Not 100% clear if you're implying that Bell is the 3d best first baseman available (would disagree if so), or if you're just looking for later round value. In OBP league, Bell is more valuable ... but don't get overly hung up on just that stat. Some others could provide more (maybe Hoskins, C Walker). Bell has talent, and a lot to prove, but I wouldn't make him a "target" pick of any kind at this point.
Chris
2:14
Please rank these 5 for this season only. 5x5 standard scoring: Jose Ramirez, Trea Turner, Yelich, Bryce Harper, Trevor Story.
Brent Hershey
2:14
We've got Trea <gap>, JRam, Story, Yelich <smaller gap> Harper. Amazing seasons Turner has put in here; and would not at all be surprised to see Yelich return to first-round value in 2021. Too good of a hitter to have lost it over just 60 G.
Greg A
2:16
I can keep one player for 3 years out of this group.  League is 12 team roto 6x6 (OPS/QS). I have to give up a 15th round pick this year, then 10th, then 5th to keep the player for maximum time.  Would you keep either?  Dylan Carlson or MacKenzie Gore.  Thanks
Brent Hershey
2:16
Carlson fairly easily; as the time line and pick progression seem to match best (you can see if in two years he's worth a 5th rounder, I assume). Well, that and he's not a pitcher. The MLB experience here and DC's shredding once he came back from ALT site is a good sign. Go offense.
Michael
2:20
Which 2 for this season (5x5): Bichette, Bogaerts, Corey Seager, Rendon
Brent Hershey
2:20
By our projections, Seager is the one that doesn't fit; the other three are within $1 of each other. I'd probably go Rendon as one and choose between Bo and Bo-gaerts. Can't go wrong there; I'd probably go Bichette as I think he's more explosive (better hitters in that lineup, too)
Bobby
2:24
What are some ideal SP2/3 targets that you are finding during early draft prep? Glasnow, Woodruff and Sanchez seem like appealing options in my 10-team keeper league.
Brent Hershey
2:24
Yep that's a solid trio. Would add Carrasco, Flaherty, Berrios, maybe Zack Gallen. Like Sandy Alcantara a bit later, too.
Robert B
2:28
Trevor Bauer indicated that one of the factors in his free agency decision would be a team open to the idea of him making more starts (ie. taking the ball every 4th game instead of every 5th game) Now that we know he landed with the Dodgers on a short term deal and the Dodgers have been creative with their pitching usage in the past, should we bump up Bauer's value on the basis that he may make more starts than other high end starting pitchers?
Brent Hershey
2:28
The theory works on one level; but in another, is he doing to pitch as deep into those games if he goes every 4th day? They may surprise me, but I'd be more inclined to say w/ LA's creativity and all those bullets (plus the investment they have in him), they may not let him go 6+ innings every four days. I think I could see giving him a small bump just in general given what we know about that LA front office, as well as a proven, championship-level supporting cast. But don't think I'd get much further down the road than that. Should fun to watch from a pure baseball perspective, tho.
Greg
2:33
Who is the one or two guys that you really *need* to draft this year? Kyle Tucker is mine.
Brent Hershey
2:33
Good one ... FWIW, I try to stay away from "needs" language from a flexility perspective, but here's a short list of guys I have/will be watching closely: Eloy Jiménez, Matt Olson, Kikuchi, and (later, obv) Jordan Montgomery.
Jen
2:36
Do you trust Jose Ramirez to deliver top 10 production with such a depleted supporting cast?
Brent Hershey
2:36
Top 10 might be a stretch, but at JRam's level I don't knock a guy down all that much (or bump him up) for strong or weak supporting cast. As a tie-breaker, maybe, but not a huge factor. At his age, skill set, realistic 5-category producer, I'm fine with him at the end of the first/early second round in a 15 teamer.
Not At Work
2:39
Kim vs Cronenworth dynasty value. What say you?
Brent Hershey
2:39
Tough, as I'm a bit skeptical of Cronenworth's end of season dive. Just one of these situations where a full season would have been especially instructive -- JC not a top prospect, performed amazingly in a short stretch, but the BIG key to see is how (or if) he could adjust back after adversity hit. Didn't have that option in 2020, obv. Still, though, lots of Qs on Kim -- but I'd still probably lean that way in this case, b/c of the huge investment SD has there and the better pre-MLB #s than JC. Good question, tho.
Steve
2:47
Chris Paddack vs Corbin Burnes.  Who do you take and why?
Brent Hershey
2:47
Think both of these guys regress some from 2020 results (in opposite ways, obv). But I'll take Burnes, b/c has a bigger arsenal. Until Paddack can trust his CB (or some other breaking pitch) more than 4% of the time, I'm more skeptical for his success than I am for Burnes. CB obviously has worse control, but makes up for it w/ heat as well as cutter/change/curve options.
Not At Work
2:50
What do you make of Pirates restructuring coaching wise? It couldn't have gotten worse but what's the outlook for future development of minor leaguers there?
Brent Hershey
2:50
With the string of prospects who were widely regarded but have disappointed in the majors in the past chunk of years, I'd say that it was time for a restructuring. Having Cherington there, with some success with BOS, is likely a good thing. But the proof will be in, what, 5-7 years, when we'll be able to begin to evaluation if they've gotten more out of their current crop of prospects (some of which are very good) than the past regime.
Tim
2:54
Just seeing a new report from Ken Rosenthal and Eno Sarris at The Athletic regarding MLB and Rawlings making changes to the baseball that may reduce power. How (if at all) would you incorporate this kind of uncertain info into prep for the upcoming season?
Brent Hershey
2:54
Have not seen this report yet, but obv two trustworthy sources. I think at this point, with many projections already made, that I don't know how to adjust that information into the process. Likely the IDEA is that the changes to the ball will affect all players the same ... but you know as well as I that these things don't always work out that way. And we'll not know that until ... partway through the season, at the earliest? Even then? So my short answer is that it wouldn't affect my draft prep this year. Just difficult to tease out what would be actionable.
Joe
2:58
Thanks for doing this!  Love the Forecaster,  a must for any Fbb owner.  D.  Lynch was can we except for him this year and beyond
Brent Hershey
2:58
Of course! Appreciate the Baseball Forecaster 2020 love, and gives me this opp to plug it. Good time to get in and be able to digest it all.
Big D Lynch fan here; from what I saw in several High-A starts he is being overlooked in some circles. Not sure I see impact this year (though I feel like he'll debut at some point this summer), but think he'll be a nice #2 starter at least, with good ratios and K #s, in several years.
WayOffBase
3:00
OB / TB AL-only 4x4.  Brandon Marsh or Tristan Casas, is it just a question of position?  They are side by side in the Baseball HQ 100. Thanks!
Brent Hershey
3:00
Yes, position is one consideration, but timeline, also. Marsh is likely to debut this year; doubt that we see Casas until 2022 at the earliest. In my personal list I have Casas higher, so feel like he's got the better long-term future (hit+power at 1B). But I know there are Marsh supporters out there also. Good luck!
DeepLeft
3:02
Do you think Austin Martin will have any impact later in Toronto's season, particularly if they make the playoffs?
Brent Hershey
3:02
Think it's probably a stretch that Martin makes the majors this year. Like the long-term flexibility he provides, but with the adds TOR has made of offense in these past months, feel like they will give Martin a full year in the minors (general fingers-crossed sign).
DeepLeft
3:06
How do you rank order Brandon Marsh-OF, Tristin Casas-1B and Josh Jung-3B, or are they so close that the decision should be based on positional need (AL keeper league)?
Brent Hershey
3:06
Another Marsh/Casas! In this case, I have Jung ranked between them (and almost equidistant, in fact). The buzz on Jung in 2020 was high (ALT camp and instructs) and sure seems like he'll have that 3B job in TEX by year's end. That positional need may be enough in an AL-only to prefer him over Casas, who is further away. Question is how much power Jung ends up with; but type of swing seems conductive to him getting to it.
Guest
3:09
Teoscar Hernandez, Mike Yastrzemski, Raimel Tapia. How much do you like each over the next three years?
Brent Hershey
3:09
Probably in the order you have them, though Hernández/Yaz are pretty close. Tapia is a distant third from this trio; not sure he ever develops enough pop to win an OF job outright. Still a small chance Teoscar gets elbowed out as that TOR team continues to evolve, but metrics do say that 2020 was real. It's just that's the first year he's done it; IOW Yaz might have a touch more job security in SF's situation. I'd still lean Teoscar first, though. Lots of skills there.
Brent Hershey
3:11
Excellent time with y'all today! Again, check out BaseballHQ.com home page for all our offerings -- including the just-announced virtual First Pitch Florida conference, a three-day affair to put the finishing touches on your prep! Lots of interactive sessions, LABR drafts, attendee contests, bunch of industry experts spoutin' knowledge. March 5-7; hope to see you there ... or at the very least, next Monday here! Best, all!
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