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Feb14_2025 BHQ Chat
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Ray Murphy
12:00
Hi gang, happy Friday! Brent's been having so much fun with Monday chats, I decided to get in on the action. We'll see if we can make regular Friday chats a thing... maybe I'll hand the chat room to some other staffers from time to time as well. Looks like there's plenty of interest today, let's dive in....
Pumpsie Green
12:02
Could Kyle Hart be this year's find? Did he discover something in the KBO?
Ray Murphy
12:02
I'd temper how much of a "find", but there could be something there. Our Tom Mulhall, who covers East Asia for us, posted in the forums today that there's a 2024 Eric Fedde ceiling here, best case scenario. That's not nothing. Just don't get carried away in bidding. I need to whip up a projection for Hart this weekend, but right now we're projecting 7% PT, which is about 115 innings. So he's "in the 5th starter mix", as far as role. Obviously he'll be closely watched this spring.
HQ Rocks
12:03
Thanks for your time doing the chat.  When should I be looking out for the sign ups for HQ leagues?  Thanks again.
Ray Murphy
12:03
Good question! We started the setup process this week. Aiming for signups next Friday 2/24. Not totally sure we'll make that, could drift into early the following week. But somewhere in there. New this year: we'll have BABS leagues too!
Sidd Finch
12:06
Odds Robert Suarez is dealt?
Ray Murphy
12:06
It's AJ Preller, so anything's possible. You can see why it would make sense... the Padres have financial constraints, other needs (we still have Tirso Onelas getting 65% PT between OF and DH, plus Jason Heyward at 50%... both seem sub-optimal), and a deep bullpen. In fact all of Estrada, Adam, and Matsui got "UP: 20 Sv" in the Baseball Forecaster, so they have plenty of places they can turn after Suarez.

Then again, they had all winter to find a fit for a Suarez trade and it didn't happen.
Zack
12:09
Is watching the BJays with what they are doing with Vlad a rerun of the Angels and Ohtani?
Ray Murphy
12:09
Maybe I'm not following the situation closely enough, but I'm not clear on "what they are doing" as you refer to it. If you mean that they're letting him play out his contract and reach free agency, that's not at all uncommon, and doesn't necessarily mean he's gone from Toronto this time next year. Look at Pete Alonso for evidence of that. Could be something gets worked out this spring, but even if it doesn't, Toronto has deep enough pockets to win him back on the open market if it comes to that. All outcomes are in play, I would think.
TxWingman
12:10
Ray,
Thank you for taking our question!!
11 team, Roto 5x5, $260, NL only, Keeper, K-BB, OBP instead of BA.
1.      San Diego closer question. If Saurez gets hurt or traded, who would be next in line for saves?
2.      Limited keeper spots. Which one would you keep - Michael Harris at $20, Robbie Ray at $1 or Gabiel Moreno at $1?
Really enjoy these chats!!
Longtime BBHQ subscriber.
Ray Murphy
12:10
  1. Just touched on Suarez a minute ago... I think I'm most dazzled by Estrada's stuff, but Adam's experience in the role from TAM might give him an edge if the 9th opened up for him.
  2. I'll take Ray for a buck anytime.
Don Dringus
12:14
Will Carlos rodon be Jekyll or Hyde this year?
Ray Murphy
12:14
I reject the premise of the question. Yes, he was both hurt and terrible in 2023. Last year was pretty reasonable and better as it went on. Those sub-3.00 ERAs from 2021-22 aren't coming back, but if he's healthy I'll take last year's 2nd half 3.79 xERA as a baseline... which coincidentally is right in line with our current 3.91 projection. The innings are the tougher variable... we're hedging with our current projection of 151.
Don Dringus
12:16
Who would you choose as your Valentine in an obp AL only - $10 langaliers or $15 Yaider Diaz
Ray Murphy
12:16
Diaz, easy call. Langeliers' proj .287 OBP is deadly.
Don Dringus
12:17
What is the expectation for the new Sacramento ballpark? I've read conflicting things
Broken bat
12:18
Ray, glad to get opportunity. On Ron’s recent chat, he mentioned that the humidity in Tampa might have a negative effect on the seemingly industry outlook that Steinbrenner would greatly aid hitting environment.is this outlook shared by you and forecast group?
Ray Murphy
12:18
Lumping together two questions about this year's new parks: I wrote about how we're handling them a couple of weeks ago. Short version: we set Tampa to match Yankee Stadium, and Sacramento as dead neutral.
MLB the Shoat
12:20
Love your insights, Ray.  Thank you.  On to a few AL-Only questions: 1.) How do you see the playing time shake out for C. Rafaella now that there is an extra regular bat in the BOS lineup?  Is he 500+ ABs or more of a 400 AB guy now?  They love his glove, but for him to accumulate, he needs the reps.  2.) How do you see the PT being distributed among 1B and DH for the Rays?
Ray Murphy
12:20
The Boston playing time picture got a lot muddier with the Bregman signing, but Rafaela's situation is pretty clear I think: he's going to start the year in CF. Depending on how he fares, he could be at risk when Roman Anthony/Khristian Campbell get called up. But even then, he could find a lot of PT as a supersub, and he could end up playing a lot of SS if (when?) Trevor Story gets hurt. So, he's got a lot of paths, I think he still finds 500 AB. (current projection: 492)
Don't Boar Me
12:24
Closer Crystal Ball time (for SVs-only leagues):  Does Jansen keep the role on LAA all season or is he deadline trade bait?   What do you make of the BOS, TEX, and DET pens?  Does a clear SVs leader emerge in any of them before the end of ST?
Ray Murphy
12:24
Our own Doug Dennis is the bullpen guru, he covered BOS and TEX in his article this week. I think Jansen's certainly a trade risk in-season, but I think his pedigree is such that he'd close in a lot of places, so I'm not sure whether I'd devalue him much because of that risk. Since Doug hasn't covered DET yet, I'll just say I don't have much of a read there except I assume it's Foley to start the year, and spring might give us some ideas who is next in line there.
Gunnar
12:26
In a 5x5 NL OBP league, how would you rank these 1st rounders for the best base stats?  Ohtani, Soto, Tucker, Carroll
Ray Murphy
12:26
You have them in the right order for OBP formats.
will
12:27
What is your take on Bichettes 2025 season?
Ray Murphy
12:27
I'm out on him right now, which doesn't mean I am ruling out a bounceback year... just that the current ADP of 136 isn't enough of a discount for me. I don't have a great read on the health situation, I just know I'm not willing to wager a top-10-round pick on him.
John
12:29
Whats more likely: 15/25 from Mason Winn or 25/15 from Bo Bichette?
Ray Murphy
12:29
Ohhh, I can keep beating up Bichette. :) That's a pretty optimistic line for Winn, but I'll still say that's more likely than 25/15 from Bichette.
Beano
12:31
A Valentine’s Day chat! I’ve read AJ Puk will get a fair amount of saves. Your thoughts?
Ray Murphy
12:31
Another pen, like SD, with quite a few options. We currently have Justin Martinez at 40% of the saves, Puk with 30% and Ginkel (who's done it before) with 10% (along with Ryan Thompson and Mantiply). Now I see today they have added Kendall Graveman too. Thing is, these are all highly-skilled guys who can run with the job, so who gets the call first is going to matter a lot.
Dan
12:34
Great to have you on chat today, Ray! Thanks for doing this.  Who's more likely to reach this year's projections, Acuna or Yelich?  In a 4x4 NL only auction, who's less risky?
Ray Murphy
12:34
A number of ways to answer this: I am pretty comfortable with our projections for both of them. And if we priced them based on our projection, I'd probably rather have Acuna, because I think our proj for him is more conservative and leaves room for upside if he comes back strong. But the market/ADP is valuing Acuna well above our projection. So at current market cost (which could change during the spring, of course), give me Yelich today.
Dan
12:35
What's your thoughts on Brandon Woodruff this year?
Ray Murphy
12:35
Ask me in a couple of weeks? We just need more info. Any answer right now is a guess. I haven't touched him in early drafts... maybe I will if he looks like he's on track, but of course if he looks like he's on track, the helium is going to kick in.
Gunnar
12:37
To win it all this year, would you rather have Bregman at third (Devers at DH, take your pick of good candidates at 2nd, take a loss on Yoshida)?  Or move Bregman to 2nd, keep Yoshida at DH, wait on prospects?
Ray Murphy
12:37
I'm a sucker for Sox questions. :)

I don't think you can justify putting Bregman at 2B. You need that defensive upgrade at 3B. I assume sometime next week, once they've sat down and talked to Devers, they'll announce that he's the DH. Besides the defensive upgrade, as you say, they need 2B open to take a look at Grissom, and eventually Campbell. Yoshida indeed looks like the odd man out, if/when healthy. Of course, things can change.
WayOffBase
12:38
I have Ceddanne Rafaela $10 in 10-TM AL-only 5x5 keeper league that uses OB/TB. He is an exciting player and even though the projections show him making a small profit, I am leaning toward cutting him, what do think? Great team, but batting ninth.
Ray Murphy
12:38
Covered him above, but I'll just add that OBP league devalues him considerably.

Don't worry, that's the end of Sox chat...
Gary Bowyer
12:39
What are the odds that Casas loses his 1st base job to Devers?
Ray Murphy
12:39
(No it's not the end of Sox chat!)

No worries there, Casas is going to play. Could mean he sits a little more often vL, that's all.
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