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Feb21_2025 BHQ Chat
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Ray Murphy
12:01
Good noon, everyone! We have spring games on TV today, site's buzzing with content, we're less than a week away from First Pitch Online (detailed schedule will post later today)... there's a lot going on! Let's hit the question queue!
Don Dringus
12:06
On the HQ 100 Kristian Campbell is listed way ahead of teammate Arias but on the Org Report Arias is listed ahead. Is this related to timing of each being posted or is there *that* much variance between the lists?
Ray Murphy
12:06
Couldn't resist the opportunity to start with more Sox Talk. (Just kidding....)

There's a disclaimer that runs with the HQ100 list that covers this sort of discrepancy:

In several instances, players from the same MLB team may be ranked differently on the HQ100 list than in the team Organization Report. The team reports are written by one author (cited at the top of each Organization Report page), who is solely responsible for all aspects of the team list. Since the HQ100 is a composite list, there are prospects listed ahead of prospects on our HQ100 ranking who were ranked lower on the organizational list, such as Owen Caissie (OF, CHC) who is ranked 43rd on the HQ100, ahead of Cade Horton (RHP, CHC) and Moisés Ballesteros (C, CHC), two prospects ranked ahead of Caissie on the Cubs’ Organization Report. 
Willie in NJ
12:08
Thanks for the chat.  6X6 keeper league is ops added.  Royce Lewis or Caminero?
Ray Murphy
12:08
It's impossible to value Lewis. There's still a lot we don't know about Caminero and how he'll transition to MLB, but I'll take my chances with him ascending that learning curve rather than Lewis suddenly discovering the Fountain of Health.
TxWingman
12:13
Ray,
Thank you for taking our questions!!
11 team, Roto 5x5, auction, $260, NL only, Keeper, K-BB, OBP instead of BA.
Miami’s dumpster fire questions.
1.      Is Faucher going to be the main closer or is there another pitcher that you think could take the job?
2.      Do you think Ryan Weathers is worth a roster spot in NL only leagues?
3.      Will Augustine Rameriz get enough playing time to roster in NL only leagues?
Really enjoy these chats!!
Longtime BBHQ subscriber.
Ray Murphy
12:13
Thanks for making me visit the Marlins depth chart page. Woof. To answer your questions:
  1. Pretty interested in Tinoco as the eventual answer in that pen. Worth a $1 stash/reserve pick, shouldn't cost more than that.
  2. Sure, Weathers is plenty rosterable in NL-only format. Just don't count on Wins.
  3. We've got Ramirez at 40% PT right now, and I think we've all established that Nick Fortes can't hit... so there's runway for Ramirez.
DrDave
12:15
Will BABS have an asset/liabilities listing by position?  Seems like that has been available in past years.  Sorry if this is a question for Ron.
Ray Murphy
12:15
For all things BABS, always check the BABS home page. There's a positional report there, is that what you're looking for?
Guest
12:19
Was sincerely hoping that Luis Robert would get traded this offseason and could start fresh somewhere else.  That didn't happen, unfortunately.  Is it just his health holding him back or is 2023 just a major outlier?
Ray Murphy
12:19
There's a lot going on there:
  • he's under team control through 2027, so not necessarily a lot of urgency to move him now.
  • they have to pay SOMEone.
  • I'm sure they would listen to offers, but obviously nobody bowled them over this winter... which may reflect that other GMs have the same concerns about his health and that 2023 outlier.

I'm sure the White Sox would love to see a big, healthy year and deal him either in-season or next winter.
Dog Fister
12:25
Would you downgrade SEA hitting prospects knowing their stadium has really hurt offense?
Ray Murphy
12:25
For anyone who missed it, this article about the problems hitting in Seattle was one of the best things I read this offseason.

Would I download prospects because of that? Probably not. They could always make changes (there's a quote from DiPoto in that article that hints at the possibility), prospects can get dealt, etc. I think it's hard enough to evaluate prospects, focusing on this kind of thing can get distracting.
Don Dringus
12:28
What do we expect with PT in Minny? Bader will play "a lot" over their better hitters? Ty France signed off the scrap heap to play everyday over Miranda?
Ray Murphy
12:28
Sounds like a bunch of noise here. Depth chart time again. Sure, Bader is going to play, because Larnach or Wallner need to sit vs lefties, and we know Buxton will miss a lot of time and/or DH a bunch. So the 4th OF role is a good one there. I don't see France playing over Miranda... but again, there's room for both when you consider DH, and if/when Royce Lewis gets hurt and Miranda slides back to 3rd.

The problem with this team is that Willi Castro can only fill in at one position at a time.
CJ Abrams
12:28
Should I be concerned the nationals could drop me in the batting order if I struggle out of the gate?
Ray Murphy
12:29
(Maybe... the Nats haven't given themselves much cover at SS, I don't think Paul DeJong counts. But they can do a lot of things with the lineup, bumping Crews to the top, etc.)
Yoshi
12:31
Hi Ray, long-time BHQ subscriber. Could you please explain the distinction between the BHQ metric of HctX and the Statcast metric of HardHit%? I occasionally notice dispartities, occasionally seemingly significant, when comparing the two for various players. Thank you.
Ray Murphy
12:31
They're literally different things. We have hard/medium/soft hit data (see the Misc tab on Playerlink), that would track more closely with Statcast's HardHit% (I believe they're measured slightly differently, but that's a different discussion.)

HctX is a mashup of hard-hit ball rate and contact rate. So that's measuring something quite different than just hard-hit%.
Guest
12:33
Barring an injury is it looking like Lawler will get less than 300 ab this season?
Ray Murphy
12:33
Hard to say... there are a lot of people in the scouting world who really like him, and think he needs to be playing in ARI pretty soon if he demonstrates health to start the year. But that extension for Perdomo this week did take me by surprise. It's not so much money that they couldn't use him as a Util guy if Lawler grabs the job, but it sure looks like a vote of confidence in Perdomo.
diadem
12:34
If Suarez and Perdomo stay healthy all season what would predict for ab for Lawler?
Ray Murphy
12:34
These questions were right next to each other... we're at 25% for Lawlar now, seems like it's going to take an injury to get him above that.
Don Dringus
12:37
Thoughts on Riley Greene this year? He seems to be "breaking out" as a hitter, but in that ballpark, without steals, and much lineup support, can he become a top 30-50 player?
Ray Murphy
12:37
Good question. I really like Greene, but I've had trouble drafting him this year pretty much for the reasons you mention. He's not going to be a 20+ bag guy, he's not going to hit .300 with his current contact rate. Awfully tough to get to that top 50 range without either of those... basically need to be a 40-HR guy rather than a 25-30 HR guy.
Beano
12:38
Trade question - NL only 10 team 5x5. I own $4 Vientos. Everyone wants him. I don't have 15 keepers (our limit). If I top on A Riley, I will have a 3b guy. I might be able to trade Vientos for a bunch of guys: $12 H Greene, $10 A Painter (minors) $1 B Doyle & $2 J Ortiz...
I think that's a good get but everytime I write it down, $4 Vientos is the guy  I would prefer to have.
Talk me off a ledge - etiher stepping back or leaping over! Please!
Ray Murphy
12:38
$10 Painter doesn't do much for me, but the other three are nice adds. I'd probably take that deal.
Kasey
12:40
In a 12 team NL only, would you make Ivan Herrera a keeper at 10? Inflation normally is in the low 20's.
Ray Murphy
12:40
Yeah, we have him at $9 in Playerlink, which is a 12-team NL 5x5 value. So given the inflation, chance to lock up a C spot... keep him.
mugghead
12:41
Hi Ray, need to keep 5 players in my H2H Points League. Lindor and Jazz are no-brainers, but all things being equal, how would you rank the following players (and is it worth locking up my position U by potentially keeping Adames):

H: Adames, M. Harris, Yelich, Bregman
P: Ober, J. Ryan, Manaea

Thanks for your thoughts.
Ray Murphy
12:41
Sorry, really impossible to answer this kind of question without knowing how your points system values these guys. I'd run the Custom Draft Guide for your scoring system and see how these guys rate... will probably give you a clear answer, and a better one than I'd give off the cuff.
Big Six
12:43
Hi Ray!  In my keeper league I have a very strong keeper list, but it's 12 hitters and one pitcher.  And there just aren't many good free agent pitchers available.  If you were me, where would you spend your money?  Buy more hitting, and take a lot of $3-5 pitching flyers?  Open the wallet for one of the 4-5 available aces?  Build a bullpen and hope to trade for rotation help?
Ray Murphy
12:43
All of the above? I guess my first question is whether your roster is unique, or if you expect pitcher inflation to be crazy high. I'd probably want to go stars/scrubs with my pitchers, try to pay for an ace and then dumpster-dive the rest of the staff. Stockpile offense and look to trade for pitching in-season.
WayOffBase
12:44
Is David Robertson going to find a team?
Ray Murphy
12:44
Would sure think so. Texas makes a lot of sense, there have been local rumblings about him here in Boston too. As a reliever, he shouldn't need a ton of time to get ready... if he signs by March 1, he could easily be closing somewhere on Opening Day.
will
12:46
Ray, Thank you. for the chat. Would you please give us 1 pitcher and one hitter in the Al that you are higher on than most, and one pitcher and hitter that you think will underperform in the AL than most others do?
Ray Murphy
12:47
This is a good wrapup question.....

Guys I'm lower on than the market:
12:51
deGrom: not touching him at current ADP.
Langford: not enough track record for the current price

guys I like better than their current ADP:
Baz: looks like a steal in rd17, as long as he comes thru March healthy
Larnach: really like the bat, seems like he's devalued due to platoon risk, but as mentioned above, he'll play all the time vR, which is 70-75% PT.

Catch you next Friday! Look for more info later today about First Pitch Online...
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