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Feb28_2025 BHQ Chat
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Ray Murphy
12:05
Hi everyone! Busy Friday here... the queue is full, will hit as many as we can in next hour. Would be remiss if I didn't start by mentioning how much fun we had in First Pitch Online last night. That was just night 1 of 4, still plenty of content ahead.. and you can catch up on last night's recording. Let's get into the queue....
Broken bat
12:08
i have concerns about Astros this year in many layers. #1. Is their defense overall going south as compared to prior years? Paredes is definitely a ? at 3rd IMO. I also forecast a struggling offense. #2. Should their SP be faded a little ?
Ray Murphy
12:08
I sort of see where you're going, but think you might be overstating it. I said to Brent sometime over the winter (probably when the Tucker trade happened) that it seemed like the HOU front office had "lost the thread" so to speak. But... I think the offense is still good: Paredes fits the park well, Yordan and Yainer and Altuve and Walker are all stout bats. They can probably augment the OF in-season if needed. I don't think there's a need to downgrade the SPs due to team context/support concerns. Still a lot of fantasy targets on this roster.
HarrytheK
12:10
Thoughts on Curtis Mead? Does hot spring force Rays to find a spot for him on roster? Possible platoon partner for Jonathan Aranda perhaps? Can he play his way into more? Thanks!
Ray Murphy
12:10
I'm somewhat interested. His prospect stock has fallen a ton in last year-plus, but he was rated very highly before that and he's still young. I think of Tampa as the ultimate meritocracy... if he earns more of a role, that org will create it for him.
Beano
12:14
Hi Ray! Does Durbin of Mil find enough ABs to be rostered? What about Saggase in St L?
Ray Murphy
12:14
Ah, time for my weekly reminder to look at our Depth Charts. We've got Durbin up to 50% proj PT in MIL (Depth chart), that's getting to the point where the SB impact could be real. Saggese is lagging just behind (STL depth chart) at 40% proj PT right now, but I think he's a little more blocked... Donovan + Gorman are a couple of versatile options in front of him. Saggese might need an injury to create his opp.
Rick
12:18
I know I'm really digging deep here, but do you see a decent chance of Kris Bryant becoming relevant again. Apparently healthy, still in Colorado, multi-position eligibility. Or am I just totally dreaming.?
Ray Murphy
12:18
Funny, on my session during First Pitch last night, Rob DiPietro and I went through some of these chronically injured guys... Trout, Correa, Buxton. But we didn't even mention Bryant. Part of that is that his ADP is so much lower. I'm not at all a believer, but his ADP is so low right now that it basically amounts to a free look. I'd do that... but conversely, if he keeps raking spring HR, that ADP is going to fly high, and then I'd be out pretty quick. Swatting a couple of HR in March Cactus games isn't necessarily indicative of his body's ability to hold up for 6 months. (Heck, I'd take 3 months)
Sam
12:21
Thanks for taking questions! League: 12 team, NL only, roto 4x4 (standard categories), auction, $260, keeper (each team can keep up to 12 players going into the auction). Question: I have two remaining pre-auction roster spots available for the following 7 players. I’m inclined to keep one hitter and one pitcher from the group. Who, if anyone, would you keep? The rest of my roster is well-balanced, though I don’t yet have a closer.
Hitters: Seiya Suzuki ($24), Matt Chapman ($19), Nico Hoerner ($15), Gavin Lux ($1). Pitchers: Jason Adam ($10), Matt Strahm ($5), Max Meyer ($1).
Ray Murphy
12:21
Plugging last night's First Pitch again... Nick Pollack and Paul Sporer did a pitching panel, and RAVED about Max Meyer. Not sure when you have to make your decision, but keep an eye on him up to the last minute. Him aside, I'd take Lux and Adam from this group.
Peter
12:23
Ray--thanks for doing these Friday chats. Keeper question. 6x6 15 team mixed auction. $260. Allowed to freeze 4 from last year's auction & 4 FAs. No contract on the freezes. freeze is for 1 year. Four from: J Pena ($3), R Mountcastle ($2), W. Abreu ($1), N Lodolo ($3), Z Litttel ($1) or C Mayo ($1). Four from: R Blanco, F. Bautista, DJ Herz, S. McClanahan, R. Weathers, J Slaten, T. Larnach, E. Uceta or B. Brown.
Ray Murphy
12:23
First group, take the first four. Second group, I'd want to wait til the last minute, especially to check on the relievers: is Bautista still healthy? Slaten and Uceta's proximity to saves? Those are cases where spring would influence me. I do love Larnach, though...
TxWingman
12:25
Ray,
Thank you for taking our questions!!
11 team, Roto 5x5, auction, $260, NL only, Keeper, K-BB, OBP instead of BA.
1.      Padre question. Will Kevin Hart be their 5th starter and will he have enough success to roster?
2.      Cincinnati question. Alexis Diaz looks very shaky. Who do you think will take the job if Diaz faulters?

Yesterday evenings First Pitch Online was great!!
Ray Murphy
12:25
  1. He's in the mix for #5, our projection doesn't suggest that we should be that interested.
  2. Our Doug Dennis likes Santillan as the post-Diaz option in Cincy. Always listen to Doug, especially about relievers, and especially about the Reds. When it comes to Reds relievers... the most of all.
Alfresco
12:26
Hi Ray,
In my NL-only Scoresheet league I've been offered Acuna in exchange for Wheeler and my 45th round pick (the first round after MLB's amateur draft).  That would leave me with a rotation of:
Snell
R Lopez
Senga
Imanaga
C Sanchez

I'm inclined to accept the deal as I cobble together an OF that includes J Rodriguez and Reynolds.  What do you advise?  As always I truly apprciate your insight.  Have a great weekend.
Ray Murphy
12:26
I don't know if your SS leagues are like mine, but I feel like everyone has good pitching and nobody has enough hitting. I'd do this for sure. You're picking up a couple of years of age in the deal too. Smash this.
Dan G
12:27
I'm in a H2H 12-team ESPN points auction league for the first time. Due to negative points for things like strikeouts/caught stealing for hitters and walks/runs/losses/blown saves for pitchers, I'm getting weird results in the Custom Draft Guide. With a few exceptions, the studs only price in the high $20's so unlikely to get them.  And many regulars are priced in negative territory. Closers almost all negative but you need to roster 3 RP's. Any draft strategy to recommend in light of this?
Ray Murphy
12:27
Great question. Negative categories like that create havoc in the CDG. Cut the category weights on the negative cats to like 0.2 instead of 1.0, that will normalize the results.
Guest
12:29
Greetings, Ray. NL-only, 12-team, dynasty. Have Ben Brown at .20 and Smith-Shawver at .50 heading into draft. Need to cut one. Who has the better path and repertoire to rise as high as a #3 SP. Hate giving up on the youngins...
Ray Murphy
12:29
If you're patient, I'd probably prefer S-S's long-term potential. But if you're not patient, and/or trying to win now, I might save the 0.30 and take Brown...
DeepLeft
12:30
PT questions.  10Tm AL Auction League - OB/TB 5x5
Maikel Garcia - $2 in Option Year. Talk has been of reduced playing time or his even having a spot to play next year.  I was going to extend him, but should I just take the profit this year rather than throw away $5?
Ryan O'Hearn - $1 2nd year. Do I keep him?  Sounds like he could be further squeezed for PT this year.
Ray Murphy
12:30
I'd take the profit on Garcia, and release O'Hearn.
Guest
12:32
Ray, it used to be an annual thing with Ron in the Forecaster about being cautious with pitchers the year after they had a big surge in usage.  Unless I missed it, haven't seen much chatter about that lately.  Is this still a thing for HQ, so maybe a red light for Skenes, Skubal, Crochet and others?  Or is this no longer a thing with HQ and so maybe a green light on these guys?
Ray Murphy
12:32
I think that's a very long time ago. The "Verducci effect" has been pretty thoroughly debunked. Teams are doing a much better job of managing rampups of their young SP workloads. They have way more/better data than we do. I don't think workload concern is a red light for Skenes. The real red light for Skenes is that top-end velocity guys tend to get hurt at a very high rate.
O
12:35
10 team NL Only Auction Dynasty - Was offered Imanaga ($14) for Lawlar ($10). Was also offered Ryan Walker ($10) and Freddy Peralta ($17) for Lawlar ($10) and Alonso ($40). Are any of these deals worth doing? My pitching is Lodolo ($5), Schwellenbach ($10) and Luzardo ($11). I have rights (I can pay an extra $1 to get them back in the draft) to Ben Brown, Porter Hodge, Seth Halvorsen, and Eury Perez.
Ray Murphy
12:35
Lawlar seems pretty divisive... as I may have said in a prior chat, a lot of people I respect still love him as a prospect, but that Perdomo extension seems like a signal that we might be waiting on Lawlar for a while. Lawlar could well be overpriced at $10, so turning him into a $14 Imanaga seems like a gift. I'd do that.
Alfresco
12:36
A few years ago, you advised using BPV rather than ERA when it came to projecting pitching for Scoresheet.  Is that still your advice?
Thanks
Ray Murphy
12:36
Yes, BPV (or BPX), K%, xERA and IP will do a fabulous job of identifying pitching targets in Scoresheet. (Or anywhere really)
Imports before Tariffs
12:38
Hello Ray, thank you this new Friday Q&A weekly. Can you guesstimate where the new players arriving from Asia (Sugano, Kim, Sasaki, Ogasawara, Hurt, and others I might have missed) should be drafted (ADP rank)? Thank you
Ray Murphy
12:38
Sorry, this is a hard question to answer in this format. You can look at ADPs at places like the NFBC and see what their actual ADP is, I don't need to predict that. Should they be drafted at those prices/picks? Really hard question to answer. We're not as good at forecasting how these guys are going to transition to the US as we think we are.
O
12:39
I have both Porter Hodge and Seth Halvorsen at $10 in NL Only Dynasty (10 team). Are they worth keeping at that price? Seems like they are going for lower prices in drafts, but my draft isn't until late March and I feel like their prices might jump
Ray Murphy
12:39
Unless one gets anointed the closer, I'd throw them back... you can still target them at auction and maybe save a few bucks. Or you might find better deals at the table.
Michael T.
12:41
Do you think players like Jackson Holliday, Grayson Rodriguez and Jasson Dominguez will make a significant jump this season? I picked them up off the waive wire last season, and now I need to decide if I should protect them in my group of  6 allotted keepers in my 15 team home points league. Here is my complete list for consideration: Bailey Ober, Michael King, George Kirby, Grayson Rodriguez, Edwin Diaz, Jackson Merrill, Royce Lewis, Jasson Dominguez, and Jackson Holliday. I still need to drop 3 of these players. Thank you and see you online at First Pitch again tonight!
Ray Murphy
12:41
Compared to the guys you already have, you can't keep Holliday/Grayson/Dominguez. I'd have your 6 keepers as Ober, King, Kirby, Diaz, Merrill... then if your really want to slot one of those kids in for Lewis, I won't fight you  on it. But anything more than that is being too cute.
Ray Murphy
12:43
Looks like I managed to clear the queue in 40 minutes, AND eat two slices of pizza while doing it. (I will need to sanitize my keyboard, but that's another story...)

Thanks for the questions, we'll do this again next Friday. Hope to see a bunch of you in the Zoom room for First Pitch tonight. Enjoy the weekend, everyone!
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