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Feb5 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:03
Happy Monday ... as BaseballHQ subscribers know, we've got lots going here at the site as we've debuted our new design and platform. If you're not a subscriber, I'll just point you to checking out all of our free articles (including these chats) at this link. We'd love to have you join us this season!
Good questions so far in the queue, continue to fill it up... let's go!
Guest
12:07
I am in a league with saves + 1/2 holds as a category.  Won't this devalue closers to a degree because 2 hold guys late with good ratios = one closer?  It will reduce your K's and Wins slightly but this will be offset with the improvement in  your ratios.
Brent Hershey
12:07
Devalues them a bit, as there's it's a zero-sum game (IOW, setup guys get more valuable). The thing to keep in mind — and we often forget — is the relative value of a roster spot. You need to take up 2 spots if as you're searching for the saves+1/2 holds. Other tip, of course, is that players in pens that are high-leverage but no 'set' closer, can be valuable b/c they can gain both Svs and Holds (Alvarado, Phillips, even Mason Miller types).
Michael W
12:11
Brent, Let’s start with how awesome the new site is and working well on my phone. Really looking forward to the league sync. In a 5x5 dynasty league and have CJ Abrams on my team. Keep seeing people talk of him as a bust. Should I be nervous or is it just in comparison to his draft price? I’ve got a bench spot open and could try to grab Neto or Tovar in the draft. Either one worth grabbing as a backup plan?
Brent Hershey
12:11
Thanks, Michael! Appreciate the support; sharing LeagueSync is going to be fun for sure!
Yes, I think much of the questions on Abrams center on his high re-draft cost. I'm not in that camp; feel like what he showed last season once elevated to the leadoff spot; fact that WAS is likely to just play him and let him run; fact that he's still so young ... all contribute a worst-case scenario of not hitting, but still returning SBs. That said, Neto/Tovar are fine backup plans with stable jobs and each has the youth to improve. Good luck!
Mystery
12:13
I've been mystified by the shorthand used by the Org reports on prospects.  For example, Rockies' prospects are identified by team names and then these parenthetical abbreviations: (PCL2), (East2), (Cal2) and (Nwst2).  I've figured out what PCL and East refer to, and can guess at some of the others, but have no clue what the "2" means. It might be helpful to simply include typical level abbreviations such as AAA, AA, A+ and A instead, right?  I do realize that one could look at the team levels listed at the top of the chart, but that takes a few extra steps when one is looking at #8 or #14 on the list.  Thanks for all you do, this is minor (pun intended) stuff.
Brent Hershey
12:13
Yes, that's from our data provider ... I believe the number is their designation for the division of the league those teams are in. Purely cosmetic -- not a signifier of value or anything. Thanks for your support!
TxWingman
12:16
Hello Brent,
Really enjoy your Monday chat and all the great information on BBHQ.
NL only, 10 team, keeper (up to 7), 5x5 roto (OBP instead of AVG), 1 catcher with 10 pitchers, auction.
From the list below, which 7 would you keep?
C – G. Moreno $1
2B – M. McLain $10
SS – CJ Abrams $6
OF – F. Tatis $35
OF – C. Carrol $25
OF – M. Harris II $20
P – E. Perez $5
P – R. Helsley $10
P – H. Harvey $1
P – M. Keller $7
P – J. Quintana $1
THANK YOU for your help!!!
Brent Hershey
12:16
Thanks for the kind words, glad you checked in ..
I'd keep Moreno, McLain, Abrams, Carroll, Harris II, Perez and Helsley. Could see swapping in Tatis for Helsley -- but not really interested in any of the single-digit pitchers in a league like yours. Should be able to buy back at similar prices.
Guest
12:19
AL Only 4x4  14 hitters, 9 pitchers, no bench
Last keeper decision:  P Meadows $8, Ragans 9, or Ober 7?
Brent Hershey
12:19
Probably Ober ... Ragans a great story but was only a couple months and some walks/WHIP issues. Like Ober better in those cats; better team context for W, cheaper.

Meadows kinda a weird profile, should play initially and get SB, but hit tool concerns could derail him and they do have some other options in the OF. Feel like he has the biggest bust risk of the 3.
Guest
12:27
15 Team Keeper league 5x5. Can Keep 5 and a "franchise" player for $10 or up to ten without a franchise for $5 each. I am struggling as I have a handful of potential keepers at $5 like Colt Keith but also can keep G. Cole at $10 if I go the 5 keeper route.  Was wondering what option you like best:

Option One

Cole $5
Royce Lewis $5
Tarik Skubal $5
Blake Snell $22
Bryan Woo $5
Tanner Bibee $13

OR

Option Two
Skubal $5
Colt Keith $5
Royce Lewis$ 5
Byron Buxton $5
Taylor Ward $5
Jose Alvarado $5
Keibert Ruiz $5
Bibee $14
Bryan Woo $5
Blake Snell $22

Thank you
Brent Hershey
12:27
Much appreciate the options, as much though I tried, the explanation is a bit confusing! But these types of non-traditional league setting always stretch us; kudos to you all.
Yeah, I like option 2 better; starting with that foundation going into the auction seems to set you up better. Even w/o Cole, love that rotation foundation of Skubal, Snell, Woo, Bibee. With the Keith contract comes Opening-Day lineup likelihood; not a huge fan of Buxton in this case (tho you win big if he stays on the field), but others are very solid and could easily out-earn their $5 tag. Fun stuff; good luck!
Bob
12:29
kinda surprised to see how high DL Hall was rated ($8 NL 12 team) based on lukewarm write-up in PT Today and Forecaster.  What's your take?
Brent Hershey
12:29
Ha, with good reason! This was pointed out to us earlier this morning (his very optimistic projection, post-trade). Will be adjusted in next proj revision. On Hall himself, though, wide range of outcomes. Will have more of a shot in MIL, as will Ortiz.
doctor horrible
12:31
quickie, 5x5 mixed, trade a $1 Justin Turner for a $19 Musgrove? My other pitchers I'm keeping are Lopez (7), Montgomery (1), Ryan (4)
Brent Hershey
12:31
Hmm .. like Musgrove, but think you're trading away more value with Turner (IE, losing that trade onto surface). Give me JT at a buck.
Dave K.
12:35
Is this the year (with health) Andrew Vaughn shows his prospect pedigree?
Brent Hershey
12:35
Tough ... the signs AREN'T really there that we'd like to see; profile has been stagnant.
Counterpoint, though, is that sometimes these high-pedigree guys take that step forward later than we expect (and sometimes without warning).
This makes my rostering AV in 2024 context-dependent: if he's super cheap in an auction or way past ADP in a draft, I'm def interested. But he's not a target for me in the same way the other younger players are who have shown skills growth — like, let's say Josh Naylor, to name other 1Bman.
Commish
12:39
I am in a 5x5 NL Only league.I have an early first round pick.I am trying to decide my better option Zack Wheeler or Zach Gallen???? Your thoughts and insight would be greatly appreciated……thank you
Brent Hershey
12:39
Both are worthy but this is Wheeler and it's not particularly close for me. More of an established track record, I feel the team context is better, better walk rates/SwK. The fact that ZW has sustained this level longer holds a lot of weight.
Michael W
12:45
Brent, Follow up questions for 6x6 dynasty league: I pulled off a trade last week giving up F Peralta and K Harrison for Michael Harris II. My OF is now Harris II, N Jones, and J Walker with Kelenic, Duran and O’Neill as potential holds for backup/last Util spot. I still have a ton of pitching and was offered Suzuki and a prospect (J Dominguez is the only one he has that I like) for Skubal. If my pitching could take that hit would you think the upgrades are worth it?
Brent Hershey
12:45
Close ... I think I lean yes. Love Suzuki this year, and while Kelenic and Duran are also faves of mine to break out, Suzuki is an upgrade in terms of risk avoidance. Skubal right now still has some injury/short sample risk, and while there are spots I'm holding onto TS because of the upside, if you have additional strong SP depth, you MIGHT be selling high on Skubal. Not sure there's a 'wrong' answer here, frankly. Fun question.
will
12:48
Thanks Brent, Willie Castro 4x4 Al only keeper league value? who closes for white sox and sleeper closer for TB Detroit please.
Brent Hershey
12:48
Castro - probably yes?
Sox - wouldn't be surprised if Crochet got some saves even though they say he's going to prep as a SP
TAM - some guy none of us are aware of right now; watch their MiLB signings for ideas
DET - been taking some shots at Will Vest in draft/hold leagues
John G
12:51
What was the final takeaway on SB last season?  More across the board, more for just the fastest guys, ??
Brent Hershey
12:51
Not "final", but seemed like those middle-tier SB guys pre-2023 made some big jumps up; more than single-digit folks bumping up. But, in some cases everyone was up.
Also curious at in-season trends; and with this offseason to dissect data, will there be even more (and/or smarter) SB opps coming in 2024?
Pedro
12:53
Hi Brent.  What are your thoughts on Eflin?  I can keep him at $15 in an AL-only 5x5 but am dubious about a repeat, in light of his injury history, the fact that he relies so much on control, and that the Rays seem to have a weaker team this year without Franco, Raley etc.  Thanks in advance.
Brent Hershey
12:53
Oh, I'd be keeping him at that price. The gains he made in that org (including health strides?) seem to be the types of things that stick. Can we expect a full repeat? Prob not .. but $15 seems priced about right given the ratios he'll return, as well as still being on an overall good team (point taken that it is weaker than last year, tho).
Kyle
12:54
How soon can we expect the custom draft guide for points leagues? I'm drafting my team this weekend.
Brent Hershey
12:54
Doing all we can on that front; CDG is a top priority for sure. Given how responsive our team is, and the priority we set for them, think the chance is good. Appreciate your sub + support!
John G
12:55
Jose Siri had a heck of a season in '23.  At 28 yrs old should we expect a repeat of 20+ HR and 10+ SB?
Brent Hershey
12:55
Yes, as long as you bake in the BA risk. Not sure that's changing ... but you're right in terms of a nice power/speed blend here, and a glove that should keep him in the lineup a good deal.
Bruce
1:00
Al only keeper 5x5, 12 team 25% inflation.  Varland gets the best write up, Allen projects to highest value, Gray has the best role.  Which would you keep if you could keep any one of them at $10.
Brent Hershey
1:00
If the Gray is Sonny, then he's the choice.
If Gray's first name starts with a "J", then I'd go Allen.
I'm a huge Varland fan, but even in AL only, feel like his role question and the $10 tag give me some pause. Seems like he could be drafted back cheaper than $10
Churla
1:03
Does Ceddane Rafaela break camp with the Red Sox?
Brent Hershey
1:03
Right now, I'd lean "no," feel like they will go with the youth of Abreu and vet fill-in of Refsnyder as their extra Ofers. BUT ... could change with either a) a killer camp from Rafaela; or b) (more likely?) an injury that opens up a spot (Tyler O'Neill, I may or may not be looking at you).
Brent Hershey
1:04
Perfect, all ... thanks for the questions. Check out the site while you're here, and join me in counting down the days to pitchers and catchers! See ya next week.
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