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Front Office Chat: 1/10
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Anthony Franco
3:30
Kinda feels like the Sox ship has sailed, at least unless they trade someone first. If Pivetta does end up taking a pillow contract, he won't do it to pitch in long relief
3:32
A's could work there. They'd take less of a draft hit after the Severino signing. The Tigers have downplayed the desire for another starter after getting Cobb but I'd still be intrigued by the fit there. Maybe the Mets?
Guest
3:32
Ryan Pressly and $4mm to the Blue Jays for a bag of balls?
Anthony Franco
3:32
Feels about right if he's willing to waive the NTC. I think Pressly at $10MM is basically neutral value
Michael King
3:33
In the Opener today, King is listed as “high profile” for next year’s free agency class. When did a guy with one good season become high profile? He’ll be the same age as Burnes was this year and Gallen as a compatriot free agent. Those three arms are in distinctly different tiers though, with King being solidly in third. Is King really going to wow the world get some big BIG money deal?
Anthony Franco
3:34
Guess it depends on what you mean by big but I'd have him over $100M if he were a free agent right now
3:35
Agree he's behind Burnes and Gallen and I'd take the under on $200M for him. But it's not accurate to say he's only had one good season. He was a really good multi-inning reliever who has been a fantastic starter in the year-plus since he's been given that opportunity
3:36
Garrett Crochet has only had one good season as a starting pitcher. He's been a high-profile trade target for months and got moved for a four-player package headlined by a top 50 prospect
Question Mark
3:36
Can you please explain how the draft pick compensation works when signing a free agent that was offered a QO?
Anthony Franco
3:37
Mark Polishuk broke it down in detail for us at the start of the offseason, so I'd encourage you to check this out
3:38
Teams pay different penalties depending on whether they've paid the luxury tax and receive revenue sharing, so it's a little complex
Texas Outlaw
3:38
Yankees send 10 mil and Stroman to the Rangers for Ezekial Duran. Thoughts?
Anthony Franco
3:39
Don't hate it. I'm pretty much out on Duran at this point but obviously the Yanks know him well so maybe they feel they can find some more offensively
RAGBRAI
3:39
What statistically, will it take to be considered a “very good season” by Sasaki this year?
Anthony Franco
3:41
Yamamoto had a 3.00 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate in year one. The rotator cuff limited him to 18 starts but he was basically a high-end #2 starter on a rate basis, borderline ace if you take out that weird debut where he couldn't throw a strike
If Sasaki does similar over 100-120 innings, I'd consider that a really good season that exceeds expectations
Arb novice
3:42
MLBTR arbitration projections seem to be the industry standard, judging by how often other sites and social media refers to them (and congratulations on that). I'm curious (a) how you reach them and (b) what factors clubs and players are negotiating and how those factors might result in deviation. Take the Red Sox, for instance. Crochet exceeded projection ($2.9m vs $3.8m), while Houck ($4.5m vs. $3.95m) and Crawford ($3.5m vs. $2.75m) went under. What do you think accounts for that?
Anthony Franco
3:45
I'm actually not sure what goes into the model. It'd be over my head since I don't have any kind of statistical background. Matt Swartz does it for us every year and he's basically cornered the market on it (at least in terms of public projections) because it'd be very difficult for anyone to create a model that does it better
Twins Fan
3:45
With the Twins stockpiling catchers, what teams might have legitimate interest in Vázquez? Does he have any value at all or would it be purely a salary dump?
Anthony Franco
3:47
Just a salary dump. They'd probably be able to move around half of it for a minimal return. San Diego needs catching. Marlins could do this and try to flip Vázquez again at the deadline
Jalen
3:47
I find the opt-out override in the Mets-Juan Soto deal interesting. Is that something that been done in many contracts previously? Do you think it will be common to see going forward?
Anthony Franco
3:48
Yeah this happens sometimes. I believe Jake Arrieta's contract with the Phillies was one of the first significant deals to do this. Joc Pederson's contract with the Rangers has one
Luc
3:49
The Giants need more so who can they get and who do they actually get?
Anthony Franco
3:50
Ha-Seong Kim still makes sense there
3:51
Fitzgerald plays second for the first month or two and then moves into a bat-first utility role. There'd still be at-bats at DH and at first base when they want to spell Wade against LHP
Rangers13
3:51
In the long run is there more upside in W. Abreu and Casas over A Garcia and Burger?
Anthony Franco
3:52
Yeah I'd take the Boston guys pretty easily. I still think Casas is going to be an impact bat
Chris D
3:52
Do you think there is any chance that the Nationals swoop in and sign Bregman. Even a pillow contract maybe?
Anthony Franco
3:53
The longer free agency goes, the more plausible one of those mystery team destinations becomes. Agree that it'd be more likely if he takes some kind of opt-out laden pillow deal than if it's just a straight six/165 or whatever
Buster P
3:53
Given how badly the Bellinger contract has aged on a player that is both younger and with positional/defensive value how does Boras/Alonso expect to exceed it?  Doesn't Bregman with a slight bump on AVV get Chapman years/$'s make them better?
Anthony Franco
3:54
I think there's more safety in Alonso than Bellinger if you're talking about a short-term deal. He has been incredibly durable and he's a 35-homer bat in a down year
3:56
I also don't think the Bellinger deal has aged that badly. It didn't go well, but the Cubs were able to offload almost the whole thing after year one. If it were a disaster, the Yankees wouldn't have taken on $47.5MM to get him
Cleveland Rocks
3:56
Shouldn’t LA send Austin Barnes and a couple million to another team? They have defensive minded lefty catcher who smashes righties and velocity over 95 mph in Hunter Feduccia. Plus lefty Dalton Rushing knocking on the door too.
Anthony Franco
3:57
They just love Barnes as a clubhouse presence. They could've let him walk this offseason but exercised a $3.5MM option to keep him around
Far from Fenway
3:58
Would the Redsox pivot from Bregman and Arenado to Vladimir Guerrero Jr if they can pry him away from Toronto this year? Casas, Yoshida, $5M & prospects for Vlad. Provided Vlad signs for 10/$380 –400M to continue the DR movement in Boston. Vlad and Raffy next to each other in the lineup for a decade:
Anthony Franco
3:58
I don't think there's any chance that the Blue Jays would trade Vlad to the Red Sox
3:59
Even if you want to make the argument that they should -- and if they don't think they could extend him and could get Casas back for him, that's not unreasonable -- it'd be such a bad look for a Toronto front office that can't feel like it's operating with much margin after last season
Mid Relief Starter
4:00
Is there a metric teams use when deciding to convert a reliever to a starter?  I doubt Stearns just has a hunch about signing Holmes to start.
Anthony Franco
4:02
Not one specific metric, but they're generally going to look for an ability to get opposite-handed hitters out (usually because they're confident the pitcher can develop a reasonably effective changeup) and at least passable control. If a guy's walking 15% of opponents out of the bullpen, he's probably not going to be efficient enough to start
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