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Front Office Chat: 1/20/24
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Anthony Franco
4:01
Hey everyone, hope you enjoyed your weekend!
4:02
Steve's off today so I'm pinch-hitting on the Monday chat and he'll run his during my usual Friday afternoon slot
May need to keep this one right around an hour, depends on news flow. Let's get going
Dave Dombrowski
4:02
Most likely to be traded before opening day.  Bohm, Castallanos, Suarez, Walker, none of the above?
Anthony Franco
4:03
I think a Walker salary dump (or even just a DFA) is most likely. Trading Bohm and Suarez was mostly about opening an opportunity to pursue other players but free agency's almost picked through. Unless they're going to jump in late on Bregman, I don't see the point
4:04
I'm sure they'd love to offload the Castellanos money but it's unlikely and he's still a semi-useful player if overpriced
Gavin
4:04
most likely Padre to be traded.  Cease, King, Suarez, Arraez, Cronenworth, Peralta?
Anthony Franco
4:05
I'd take Cease. Best combination of creating short-term spending room and netting a legitimate return that includes MLB pieces to deepen the roster
Question Mark
4:05
Oops.  Why doesn't deferred money count as part of a team's budget?  Teams shouldn't be able to hide behind deferred money to not be part of a higher tax bracket.
Anthony Franco
4:06
It's basically an acknowledgement that the initially reported guarantee is an illusion and that the deal isn't really worth that
4:07
Money today is more valuable than money years or decades in the future because of inflation. Deferred a payment without interest means you're offering less value than if you'd committed the same amount of money but were willing to pay it up front
Cubbies
4:07
What is your thoughts on the Cubs rotation? Do you think they will be one of the best in the division?
Anthony Franco
4:09
I think it's good, not great. I'd rather have the high-end talent in the Pittsburgh rotation but would probably take the Cubs after that. Cincinnati's not far behind
International draft
4:09
Since some teams are considering complaining to the commissioners office about Sasaki and LAD, will this become a bigger ticket item?
Anthony Franco
4:10
Yeah my guess is that MLB will push this hard enough to get it in the next round of CBA talks. Sasaki will probably be a talking point but I don't think he's a compelling reason to implement the international draft. His situation is like a once in a decade thing
4:11
But I'm broadly in favor of a hard-slotted international draft to stop the early agreements that we have now
Tyler
4:12
When and to where do you think Marcus Stroman will be traded and then who will the Yankees acquire for the infield?
Anthony Franco
4:13
I think he'll move before Spring Training. Angels perhaps? They should be in on Bregman but it seems like they're going to end up with a Jorge Polanco/Brendan Rodgers type
Baseball Fan
4:13
Who wins the NL Central this year?
Anthony Franco
4:14
Leaning Cubs, we'll see how the rest of the offseason plays out though
Philly Special
4:14
International bonus pool money for prospect Dylan Campbell.  Some disagreement in Philly.  Bad move, helps a potential playoff competitor get Sasaki.  Good move, a supplemental 4th rounder for free since the Phillies weren't using the money.  What say you?
Anthony Franco
4:14
The latter. They were going to find a way to get Sasaki regardless
4:16
Even if the Phillies refused to make that trade, someone would have, and it seems pretty clear that Sasaki wanted to end up there and didn't really care about the bonus amount
Even if every team refused to trade with the Dodgers, he probably would've signed there for the slightly more than $5MM they had
Kirt
4:17
What do you expect at the plate from  Michael Massey in 2025?   Also, will he stay at 2B or will he move to LF?
Anthony Franco
4:18
I like Massey, think there's a little more offensive upside in there. Probably going to end up in the low .300s from an OBP perspective but he's got the ability to hit .270 with 20+ homers if he stays healthy
4:19
I'd keep him at second and play India in left field but I don't know that the Royals have made that decision yet
Ben
4:19
Alonso:  Mets or Giants?  Years / $$$?
Anthony Franco
4:21
Really tough one. The Mets stuff did feel a little like posturing but the offer they made (around $70MM over three with opt-outs) didn't exactly scream wanting him back. Guess I'll take the Giants on a similar structure but a guarantee in the mid-80s. Angels still have an outside shot
Tatis Jr
4:21
2023 was a great bounce back for me, and even '24 was pretty good considering I was hurt. But what will this year be like? Will I return to being an offensive AND defensive beast? Or will I settle in as above average but not really worth the huge contract I got early on?
Anthony Franco
4:23
I think he was on track to play up to the contract regardless until he got hurt. Offense was 35 points above average on a rate basis, probably would've gotten to 30 homers while hitting around .280 with an OBP close to .350
4:24
Unless you want to argue that the decision to move him off shortstop this early makes that a bad investment, I think they should be happy with it (especially post-suspension)
Robert from SC
4:24
What's more likely: The Braves acquire a starting left fielder or acquire a platoon bat to pair with Kelenic?
Anthony Franco
4:25
Would've said an everyday player at the start of the offseason but they still need a starter and probably bullpen help so it seems like Kelenic's going to get another shot at the strong side of the platoon
Burgher Time
4:26
What kind of trade value does Keller have? I’d rather he be traded than
Jones or a top prospect. Does he bring back say Abreau from Boston?
Anthony Franco
4:29
I'd rather have Keller but that'd be a defensible swap. Boston doesn't really need starting pitching after adding Crochet and Buehler and it seems like the Bucs are less likely to trade from the rotation after dealing Ortiz, but I get the argument for both sides and think it's close on value
Mike M
4:29
Who, amongst 8 legitimate candidates, will most likely comprise the DBacks starting rotation---Burnes, Gallen and Kelly being locks.
Anthony Franco
4:30
E-Rod and Pfaadt. If everyone's healthy, they could go to a six-man rotation to keep Nelson in there
Monty has to get traded. No point in keeping him in long relief
Baltimore O’s
4:30
There’s a lot of depth on this team, do you think they move an infielder or pitcher? Or will Elias just stack talent in case of injury or rookie struggles?
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