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Front Office Chat: 1/5/24
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Hits Like Rays
3:24
Since MLBTR is the best place on the internet for the sport's economic analysis, can we get an article that analyzes how often the highest and lowest payroll teams make the playoffs?  Such an analysis could be spread out over the last 20 years and rank the teams based on their payroll (ie, the top ten highest payrolls make the playoffs at what percentage?).  Every time I read an internet statement that the highest payroll teams don't always make the playoffs (like the Mets, Yankees, Angels, etc in 2023), it makes me want a real long-term analysis to prove the connection between payroll and contention.
Anthony Franco
3:26
This would be an interesting idea. I'll throw this by Tim. I know he was toying with some analysis like this during the lockout, so he may want to tackle something like this
Thank you for the chat!
3:26
Is Zack Wheeler underrated? He's been phenomenal under the current contract. What does he get for the next one?
Anthony Franco
3:27
You could argue Wheeler’s a little underrated. The rate stats aren’t quite as dominant as some other aces but he has shouldered a ton of innings. I think Wheeler’s generally regarded as a top 10 or so pitcher in MLB but there’s a case for him as high as 2 behind Cole.
Rockies
3:27
Any chance we can be better than SF this season? SD and AZ seem like a pipe dream to catch and MLB won't allow anyone to compete with LAD for the Division. Can we expand and realign divisions already?!
Anthony Franco
3:28
I don't see it. The Giants are pretty clearly the better team than Colorado. Sometimes teams get wrecked by injuries and collapse, but I'd put like a 75% chance of Colorado finishing in last and a 25% chance of anyone else (mostly SF, but with non-zero possibilities of Arizona and San Diego) ending up there
3:29
They have an uphill battle in the division for sure, but the Rockies haven't put together rosters that would be competitive even if they were in one of the Centrals
Michael K
3:29
It feels like the Seth Lugo signing by the Royals might have been the steal of the offseason thus far, do you agree?  I know he's older and wouldn't get nearly as big of a contract, but his numbers last year compare pretty favorably to Montgomery's. I'm surprised there wasn't more competition for him.
Anthony Franco
3:30
Felt about right to me. Age matters a lot in free agency
3:31
Good pitcher, I like the contract. It's my favorite of the moves the Royals have made this offseason. I wouldn't call it a huge steal, though, and I'd have liked the plan more if they'd followed up by adding a bat instead of doubling down with Wacha right after
Edd G
3:31
Where can I find the winter league statistics? I use to be able to get them on the MLB website, but not anymore.
Anthony Franco
3:31
Not sure if there’s anywhere that puts all the Winter leagues together – I think that’d be a mistake anyways – but you can go to Baseball Reference for stats in each of the leagues.
Apparently Franmil Reyes has nine homers in the Dominican Winter League this year
Padre Jonathan
3:32
Thoughts on signing Soler, let Marsee start at CF, and trade for Luzardo from Mia?
Anthony Franco
3:34
Assuming Salas is off the table, they'd probably have to give up two from the group of Snelling, Lesko and Merrill for Luzardo. I wouldn't mind it -- they're still trying to win and Preller, despite his missteps as a GM, has been excellent at identifying high-end amateur talent
3:36
Soler feels like he'll be out of the price range. I wouldn't open with Marsee in center field. Get someone like Michael A. Taylor as a hedge and if Marsee forces the veteran to the bench by outplaying him, so be it
So Cal Craig
3:36
Nick Martinez, a starter reliever, long man or my guess is as good as yours ??  Seems to have done a bit better as a starter but not a lot of innings....
Anthony Franco
3:37
He’s a starter for me. Never seemed like Bob Melvin bought him in that role but the results were good enough that I think he could pitch at a league average level from the rotation
M’s Fan
3:37
Could the M’s pry E Julien or Royce Lewis from Minnesota in a trade? What would it take? Kepler and Julien for Miller and Topa a good framework?
Anthony Franco
3:40
Royce feels basically untouchable. I could see the argument for trading Julien given the defensive questions. I'd be tempted by the framework you proposed if I were in the Minnesota front office
gbs42
3:41
Rox adding D. Hudson and J. Stallings pretty much punches their ticket to the playoffs, right?
Anthony Franco
3:41
Haha I like the Dakota Hudson flier for them. Stalllings as a backup to Díaz is whatever
Arizona
3:41
More likely we are back in the playoffs or sitting at home in October and watching more expensive teams play ball?
Anthony Franco
3:42
We'll see how the rest of the offseason goes but as of now, I'd have them as a Wild Card team again
Dodger Dave
3:42
Trade proposal M. Busch to NATS for L Thomas P Corbin and $15 million for Corbin contract.  Mad Scientist Dr M Prior can fix Corbin to be lefty #5 starter and Thomas is needed  handed outfielder.  Thoughts!
Anthony Franco
3:43
Dodgers would still be taking on $20MM for one year of Corbin and kind of buying high on Thomas. He’s a good roster fit but it’s more money than I’d take on if I were them.
Guest
3:43
With the trade of Vaughn Grissom for Chris Sale, it seems like Braves need only a righty OF to pair with Kelenic  and they're ready to go.  Maybe Adam Duvall or Michael A. Taylor among free agents?
Anthony Franco
3:43
Taylor's a little redundant on a team that has Michael Harris. He should be able to find a regular center field job somewhere else
3:45
I like the Duvall reunion possibility. He's not a traditional lefty masher so it's not a perfect L/R platoon pairing with Kelenic, but he's a good enough all-around player that they could lean on him down the stretch if Kelenic doesn't hit as well as the Braves expect him to
MC
3:45
Will the Astros make any relavent moves this offseason or just small moves. If yes, do you think Framber will be traded
Anthony Franco
3:45
Largely standing pat. I don't expect them to trade Framber
3:46
They entered the offseason with limited financial room but a very good team that was only losing a catcher who profiles best as a backup and a few middle relievers
3:47
Always felt like they were going to have a quiet offseason and mostly run it back with the 2023 roster
Rodon Right On?
3:47
Obviously Yanks need a starter.......See they are "connected" with Dylan Cease......but I don't see a realistic trade since they already sent out so many assets for Verdugo and Soto.  Thoughts?
Anthony Franco
3:48
They’ve got the top-end talent in the farm system to make it work. I don’t think the Yankees would give up Dominguez but they could put one of Jones or Arias on the table as a realistic starting point. Pereira’s a divisive guy with all the strikeouts, but he’d be a plug-and-play option in right field for the Sox if they think he can hit
On Sale
3:49
Since the Red Sox were paying $17 million of Sale’s contract next year but he’s now making $16 million next year do the Red Sox save another million in tax next year?
Anthony Franco
3:50
The AP reported that the Braves just keep the extra $1MM they got from Boston
3:51
So it won't have any impact on the Red Sox's tax outlook. It's a little weird to have a team paying down more than 100% of a player's salary, but if the Braves weren't allowed to do that, they'd have probably just moved an extra million of his 2025 money to this year as opposed to letting the Sox off the hook for $1MM
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