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Front Office Chat: 10/13/23
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Mike
2:29
Assuming Brandon Woodruff is healthy for 2024, he looks most likely to be back with the Brewers for 2024.  1.  What would an extension look like for him.  2.  Assuming that, it looks like the Orioles and Astros are good fits for a Burnes trade.  Would the Astros possibly trade away Hunter Brown in a package?  Or how about the Orioles for Mayo?
Anthony Franco
2:32
An extension for Woodruff runs from 32 onwards. Not a great comp for that but my off-the-cuff reaction is something like 5/125 in new money. Mayo or Brown feel a little heavy for a team to give up for one year of Burnes
2:34
These are really interesting questions though. Once we get clarity on Woodruff's shoulder, I'll probably take a deeper look at the precedents for these and do a post or Front Office email on it, so thanks
A's Fan
2:34
IIRC, when MLBTR broke down the pending FA market for relief pitchers, it was suggested Joe Jimenez could get a 3 year deal. Would the A's have to go to 4 years to sign him?
Anthony Franco
2:35
If they offered 3/33, I don't see why he wouldn't take it. I think it's beyond where they'll go for a reliever this offseason though
Julio, lord of the deep and king of the seas
2:35
The Mariners need to fix 2B--ideally with a good left handed bat--but there are just about zero FA options. Who do we need to give up to get Donovan and/or Gorman from the Cardinals? What would a match with the Reds look like?
Anthony Franco
2:37
I've never loved the Mariners/Cardinals fit the way a lot of other people have. I don't think Donovan or Gorman are good enough to pull Kirby or Gilbert, but I wouldn't give them up for Miller or Woo
2:38
Maybe the Cards like one of the latter two guys a little more than I do though. Reds would probably give up India for one of those guys but I wouldn't do it if I were Seattle
Rodon Right On?
2:38
One of the issues the Yankees have in their poor roster constructions recently, is simply not identifying solid average guys in free agency to fill up at bats and innings.  This makes their rosters have high variance. What players of that type should the Yankees be pursuing this off-season? BTW- am heartened to see Hal requiring a root canal of Yankee operations.  Guessing Cash and Boone have 1 year to turn it around before they are shown the door( though I'd probably do it now).
Anthony Franco
2:39
I'd agree with that assessment, at least on the position player side. Definitely a top-heavy lineup. I thought their construction of the pitching staff was ok but they got sidetracked by a bunch of injuries and Severino's inexplicable collapse
2:41
As to your question, Jeimer Candelario, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Michael Conforto are guys I'd consider lower-variance free agent hitters. Gio Urshela kind of fits the bill too but they might not want to run that back
2:42
Pitching side: I'd say Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are at the higher end of this range. Michael Lorenzen and Kyle Gibson towards the lower bound
Julio Franco
2:42
Thanks for the chat! The Braves need a starter or two just to replenish the roster with Soroka, Wright, and Anderson out next year. I guess Morton’s option will be picked up and they’ll risk losing Fried even if they can’t extend or re-sign before the end of next season. Do you think they’ll go after one of the Grays, make a deal, some combination?
Anthony Franco
2:43
Don't expect the Rangers to trade Jon Gray. Sonny Gray makes sense but might end up a little beyond the price range
2:45
If Morton continues playing, renegotiating the deal down to around $15MM feels a little better than the option price. The mid-tier guys I mentioned in response to the last question could fit for Atlanta too. Kenta Maeda on a two-year deal could work
Themarkyd
2:45
New here and follow the Red Sox and the CBT calc pretty closely. Curious what your thoughts are on what it will take to sign Yamamoto and what teams are most likely to spend “more than they should” to get a deal done.
Anthony Franco
2:47
We haven't quite settled on a number for Yamamoto yet, still getting feedback from some people who have seen him in Japan. Early indications are that he's going to be above Snell and could land at $200MM+ over seven or eight years
2:48
The age basically makes him a viable fit for anyone. I feel pretty comfortable saying he's not signing with the Royals or Nationals, but even teams like that could at least kick the tires because he'll still be in his prime when they're ready to compete
2:49
But when you're talking about the kind of money he's likely to end up at, you're more so projecting the usual suspects. Red Sox make sense, both New York teams, Dodgers, Giants, maybe the Cubs
AA
2:49
Where can I go to get more high powered arms or should I just bet on all the arms I've still got in my system?
Anthony Franco
2:51
With three impending free agents, the Braves should add a reliever. Could bring Pierce Johnson back given how good he was down the stretch. Jiménez feels less likely since Snitker seemed to view him as a low-leverage guy
Padres could trade Scott Barlow. Maybe the Angels deal Carlos Estévez if they take a step back
Guest
2:51
What if any pitchers are there in the trade market
Anthony Franco
2:52
Assuming this is starters: one of Burnes/Woodruff, either Shane Bieber or Cal Quantrill, potential buy-low opportunity on Alek Manoah all seem plausible
Josh
2:52
If Santandar replicates his season next year, is he a QO candidate?  Or so the Os trade him this off season
Anthony Franco
2:54
Either scenario seems reasonable. They have enough position player talent they could swap for pitching. If they hold him, I agree he's trending towards the qualifying offer after 2024
2:55
Around 80% of a team's decision on the QO is based on platform year performance, so we'll see how he plays, but a typical Santander year should net him a QO
Dodger Dave
2:55
How many starters does LAD need to sign for 2024? Assuming no May Gonsolin and Othani
Anthony Franco
2:55
I'd look to bring in three starters, two new ones if Kershaw returns
Dodger Dave
2:56
Right handed outfielder options for LAD free agent or trade?
Anthony Franco
2:57
Teoscar Hernández is the high-end possibility. Jorge Soler probably the next tier down. If they look for a low-cost platoon type, Robbie Grossman or Adam Duvall work
Lefty
2:57
Conforto and Manaea opt-out odds? higher than 75%
Anthony Franco
2:58
I think Manaea's around 80% to opt out. Conforto's borderline, I'd put that closer to 40%
A's Fan
2:58
Does Blackburn net the A's a Top 10 prospect from a good farm system?
Anthony Franco
2:59
That's probably a little high. Guessing it's more of a middle third guy from a good Top 30 or a fringe Top 10 guy in a shallow system
Cards Fan
2:59
In addition to a FA signing (hopefully) for a starting pitcher, and knowing Mo wants two more starters, that is a tall task, to say the least.  Wouldn't a couple of short-term pitchers a year away from FA with a proven track record make sense? Like Glasnow and Bieber? Maybe they could extend them after that, or give their young guys in the minors more time to get ready.
Anthony Franco
3:00
Cards make sense on Bieber, sure. I doubt the Rays trade Glasnow. They signed him to this extension 14 months ago and subsequently lost three-fifths of their rotation to major arm surgery.
A's Fan
3:00
Last year, during the Top 50 FA series, you projected Drew Rucinski to the A's. Who would you project for their 2024 roster?
Anthony Franco
3:01
Tim correctly pegged Rucinski. I had him to Kansas City apparently. Haven't done team picks yet but I'd probably give them like Martín Pérez (who won't be on the top 50) and Jakob Junis. Not super exciting, I'm sure
Madag
3:01
Thanks for taking our questions. How do you see the Texas Shootout?
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