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Front Office Chat: 10/25/24
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Anthony Franco
3:58
Hey all, hope you're doing well! May need to keep this around an hour depending on news feed, we'll see
Luc
3:58
Dodgers suck and from 1-100 what are the chances of Giants signing Soto?
Anthony Franco
3:58
Lol wonder who Luc's pulling for tonight
3:59
I'll give the Giants like 5% on Soto. Decent case to be that they're the third-most likely team but it certainly feels like it's going to be one of the New York teams
4:00
Still find it really hard to believe the Yankees are letting him leave
walterj23
4:00
Do you think the cubs would have buyers for Nico Hoerner despite him having a surgery ? What do you think they could get back ?
Anthony Franco
4:01
Eh I don't think they'd get enough of a return to make it worthwhile. Still think there's positive trade value but it's selling lower than it would've been at the deadline, especially if they were planning to shop him to teams like San Diego or Atlanta that could play him at shortstop
Spaghetti Marinera
4:01
Hi, Anthony. I saw in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook on the Braves that Jarred Kelenic was not listed as a non-tender candidate despite having been widely seen as having a disappointing year. The Braves seemed to use him less in the second half and I didn’t get much sense that he was seen as a key player in Atlanta’s future plans. Do you folks think he will be tendered because he’s cost-efficient, or because his pedigree makes him still seem like a possible breakout candidate? Or because he’s the best player in the roster to fill a corner-outfield strong-side platoon role? What do you make of Kelenic at this point?
Anthony Franco
4:02
A little bit of everything you mentioned, but the biggest factor is just the salary projection itself. $2.3MM is nothing, especially to a team that runs the kind of payrolls the Braves do
4:04
It's probably too late to realistically hope for a breakout. Not impossible, but the odds of it happening at age 26 after 1300 MLB plate appearances are really slim. He's vaguely useful against RHP though and the Braves don't have a clear answer in LF right now. Can't go back into the season with Kelenic as the Opening Day starter, but keeping him around as a LH bench bat is fine
4:06
And if the Braves have completely soured on him at this point, they could probably flip him to the White Sox or Rockies for a minimal return rather than an NT. Look at how long teams were willing to take cheap fliers on Nick Senzel, who has basically never shown anything at the major league level
Who’s on First?
4:06
There’s a lot of talk about how much money the NY Mets have to spend this offseason.   If you had a crystal ball, which free agents (including their own) do you predict will sign with them?   Corbin Burnes? Juan Soto? Jack Flaherty? Christian Walker? Others?
Anthony Franco
4:06
I'll probably pick Soto back to the Yankees and Burnes to Queens
Glenn
4:06
If the Ray's trade Yandy Diaz who do you think will take over the role a full-time first baseman?
Anthony Franco
4:08
Not sure they'll give anyone 500 PAs there, since it's not really the Rays' style. Aranda deserves a real look there at some point, and I wouldn't be surprised if Austin Shenton hits his way into legitimate playing time too
Lindsay C.
4:08
New subscriber here, thanks for doing this.

My question is about potential trades this offseason. We've heard that Sonny Gray of the Cardinals might be available, and Garrett Crochet of the White Sox is expected to finally get moved this winter. What other starting pitchers under contract for next season might be on the move?
Anthony Franco
4:10
Thanks for signing up! We'll have a full trade candidates post dropping at the end of the World Series. Erick Fedde is way up on that list. Some other starters who could get moved: Aaron Civale, Nestor Cortes, Chris Paddack, Cal Quantrill, Edward Cabrera
Scooby Snack
4:10
Do you see the Padres extending Luis Arraez to avoid paying him $16 million in arbitration, and if so, what does that contract look like?
Anthony Franco
4:11
Yeah my guess is they'll go four years around a $10MM AAV (maybe backloaded) so they can keep him while reducing the CBT hit and short-term salary compared to the arb projection
4:14
It would be weird to cut him (or trade him for nothing) after trading three solid prospects for him. I don't think Arraez is a $15MM player like his arb tag would suggest, but he's better than a 1-WAR guy in my view. Seems like he wants to be there, which makes sense since he keeps getting shuffled around, so they should be able to work it out
Rick Wise
4:14
Is wilyer abreu just a platoon?  Does he have a chance to be anything more?
Anthony Franco
4:16
Could see him ending up as a strong side platoon guy but I wouldn't want to consign him after 77 plate appearances against LHP. I think teams are generally too quick to shield left-handed hitters, in particular, from unfavorable platoon matchups
4:17
Abreu showed a good enough approach and contact skills in the minors that I could see him getting to be a functional bottom-of-the-lineup hitter against lefties. The majority of the power will come against righties though
Nick
4:17
A question I can’t find an answer to in an admittedly lazy Google search is when exactly does payroll crystallize for the purpose of calculating the luxury tax impacts? There is a lot of talk during the season about teams wanting to get under it even though they started the season over it. Is it right after the World Series when the season formally comes to an end?
Anthony Franco
4:18
It's at the end of the season. MLB usually releases the official numbers around Christmas
4:20
I don't know if they calculate it after the World Series or right after the regular season concludes. My guess would be the former so they can include stuff like a player unlocking a contractual bonus for winning World Series MVP or something
For the vast majority of players and teams, it wouldn't matter because they stop paying salaries at the end of the regular season
Blue Jays Buffalo Boys
4:21
Which of the Blue Jays recent calls ups stands a chance of sticking around and contributing into 2025?  Spencer Howritz looks like the bat should play but is the 2b experiment over?  Leo Jimenez looks like his OPS is unsustainable built on so many HBP last year.  Does Ernie Clement stand a chance at being an everday player or will his bat eventually drag his glove down? Will Wagner seems interesting, Jonatan Classe still seems a little bit raw.
Anthony Franco
4:22
I'm generally with you on all these guys. Some stuff to like about them all. Not sure I'd project any of them as a regular in a vacuum, though when you've got a group of 6-7 interesting young players like this, one or two will probably play above expectations
4:23
Most intrigued by Horwitz, who seems like a legitimate bat even if he's not a second baseman. Wagner's got a shot to be a low-end regular. I think Jiménez, Clement and Clase are all going to be light offensively to play every day
4:24
Not giving up on Addison Barger yet either, though the early returns were rough
buffy, the umpire slayer
4:24
I think 12 yrs, $45M per, $540M a reasonable overcome for Juan Soto. Do you think he will be over those numbers?
Anthony Franco
4:24
I'll go over but that's not far off. I was around 550 on our first Top 50 run
4:25
Pretty sure Steve thinks he's getting past 600, which I could see if Soto just goes for the biggest guarantee possible. I shaded down on that because I assume they'll sacrifice some amount of guaranteed money to get an opt-out or two built in
Oscar Gamble
4:26
What do  you see as Kyle Manzardo's MLB future?
Anthony Franco
4:27
A 115 wRC+ bat whom the Guardians trade when he gets expensive four years from now. Still think he's going to be a good everyday player but a little shy of the power needed to be a star at first base
O'Malley
4:27
Do you think Del Castillo of Arizona gets a look at first base next year? He's kind of blocked at catcher with Moreno there, but his bat seemed to play pretty well in the big leagues.
Anthony Franco
4:28
I expect them to make a legitimate push to keep Walker but I could see Del Castillo getting some time there if they lose Walker, yeah
Michael Edwards
4:28
Even though the Rays have financial flexibility, with the TV and Stadium issues how will that impact their free agent plans heading into next year?
Anthony Franco
4:30
I doubt it'll change a whole lot. They were going to be in the middle to lower tiers of FA anyways and it seems like the biggest question for the Trop is whether the city wants to foot a good chunk of the bill to repair it
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