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Front Office Chat: 10/27/23
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Anthony Franco
3:53
Hey everyone, hope you all enjoyed your week!
3:54
Have to run right at 4:00 Central today but we can get started a little early
Gary
3:54
Will the Mariners ever commit to spending for good free agents or will they always trade from strength?  The end result of that strategy (strength for weakness) is that they then create a weakness in the previous area of strength. It's an unending circular firing squad strategy of mediocrity!
Anthony Franco
3:56
I don't think they're ever going to run top five payrolls, but somewhere in the 10-15 range seems plausible. They were around there during the early portion of Dipoto's tenure, largely with underwater contracts from his predecessor. They've been in the high teens or low 20s the past few seasons
3:58
They haven't been entirely averse to spending. Robbie Ray was arguably the best free agent starter the year they added him. They've certainly shown a willingness to extend key players, but I agree that it's probably time to dip back into free agency (even if the second or third tier) within the next offseason or two, particularly for help on offense
Guest
3:58
Does a manager have to be officially retired to get into the HOF?  Thanks!
Anthony Franco
3:59
I didn't know the answer to this, but according to the Hall of Fame's website, the five-year retirement window for players also applies to managers but the waiting period drops to six months for those who are 65 or older (which is going to apply to most managers who have a Hall of Fame argument)
MLP
4:00
I've asked this before, but here it is again with a twist, viz., if the Mets sent along $15M or so to defray the eventual arbitration salary, what would be a reasonable package for Pete Alonso?  There actually is a rational angle to Cohen's seemingly insane spending, to build up prospect depth where there hasn't been any: the Mets added money on multiple deadline deals to that end.
Anthony Franco
4:02
Yeah, I don't think Alonso has the kind of trade value a lot of people would expect at $22MM. He's obviously still a rental if the Mets paid it down to $7MM, but it brings smaller-market teams firmly into play. At that point, I think a fringe top 50 prospect should be on the table if they do it over the offseason -- when the acquiring team could subsequently backfill the farm system to some extent by recouping a pick when he declines a qualifying offer next winter
Dave
4:02
Your guess on estimate when two new teams are to MLB?  Also do you see realignment that eliminates NL and AL?
Anthony Franco
4:05
With the Rays and A's stadium situations getting sorted out in the next couple years, I imagine we'll hear about expansion plans by the end of the decade. Probably takes into the early 2030s before 32 teams is viable based on the amount of time it'd take to secure new ownership, construct/renovate stadiums, etc.
4:06
Hard for me to see MLB eliminating the AL and NL entirely. There's an argument for it now that interleague play is commonplace and there's a uniform DH, but it'd eliminate a lot of the historical rivalries that the league (and TV partners) likes to play up
Maui Brave fan
4:06
Acuna gets his fair share of  pitchers throwing at him and Garcia  was beaned by Abreu for their showing off  and “pimping”.Why does Harper seem to get away without retaliation for his arrogance and hubris? ie staring down Arcia
Anthony Franco
4:06
In general, I find the idea of throwing at players for celebrating to be a waste of everyone's time
Guest
4:07
Best case--the Nationals are improved in 2024 and competitive in 2025. What should they do this winter to move the process along? An ace starter on a multi-year contract? Since they have no candidate in the minors, maybe a first-baseman that can field well and has some punch in his bat? A lot of the fans would be happy to see Josh Bell back.
Anthony Franco
4:09
Locking in some kind of rotation reliability would be ideal. There's an argument for them to strike a year early on Matt Chapman since they don't have a ton of long-term infield certainty. Really depends on how willing ownership is to commit to the long-term payroll, though. They've been quiet the last couple years in tandem with an unsuccessful effort to sell the franchise. Not sure they want to make the kind of long-term commitment it'd take to put a core piece in place right now
4:11
A Bell reunion would be a shorter-term thing. Hard for me to see him getting more than two or three years, although I also think there's a strong chance he just takes the $18.5MM he has from the Marlins already. If he opts out and is looking for, say 3/30, that'd make some sense for Washington
Bernie Franks
4:11
That’s for the Chat Anthony.  What is your prediction of the World Series?
Anthony Franco
4:12
I've picked Texas in every playoff round and picked against Arizona every time so far. I'll stick to the pattern and go Rangers in six
Cheat Town
4:12
What happened to Alex Bregman? In his first four years in the majors, he was a steady .285-ish hitter with a lot of power. In the past four years, he's become a .260-ish hitter with moderate power. Will we ever see the Bregman of 2016-2019 again?
Anthony Franco
4:15
I assume you're trying to get at the sign-stealing as an explanation given the username, but my guess is that it's a lot more about the ball itself. Home runs around the league peaked in that 2017-19 window, in large part because MLB (maybe unintentionally) was using livelier balls
4:17
Beginning in 2020, that started falling. It rebounded a bit this past season but still below previous levels, especially 2019 -- when Bregman hit a career-high 41 homers
4:18
That affects everyone but it's disproportionately tougher on guys who don't have massive raw power. Bregman's obviously a smaller-framed guy whose power was built more around optimizing his swing for pulled fly balls to take advantage of the Crawford Boxes as opposed to brute strength. The ball traveling a little less is going to have more of an impact on him than it will on Aaron Judge
4:19
All of which is to say is that I think the more recent version of Bregman is what to expect moving forward. Still a very good player but not an MVP candidate
Astros fan
4:19
What would extensions for Altuve and Bregman look like? Which is more likely? Does McCullers have any trade value if Astros agreed to pay part of his contract?
Anthony Franco
4:20
Might as well jump to this one
4:24
I'll probably take a look at this in more detail in the next couple weeks, but Bregman feels like he's around $200MM. Better player than Swanson, Story, Baez. Cleaner health track record than Nimmo, who got 8/162
4:26
An Altuve deal starts at age 35, so he's probably looking at four or five years. No real comps for an extension at that age but something in the $100-120MM range would be my off the cuff guess
Dome City
4:26
With the season in its final 4-to-7 games, I'm looking at which players should be my keepers in my fantasy league. What's your assessment of Brayan Bello vs Kyle Bradish vs Michael King for the greatest success in 2024?
Anthony Franco
4:27
Bradish has shown the ability to hold up over a full season as a starter, so I'd give him the edge. Probably go Bello then King after that. Like all three though
Giantsphan
4:27
Hi Anthony, as soon as you all floated the notion that Bob Melvin might be available on the managerial open market, I got excited that the Giants may land him….and lo and behold!  Aside from the on-field upgrade, do you think he will influence player acquisition in free agency?  In other words, will free agents potentially be more inclined to sign with the Giants now that Melvin is  leading the dugout?  Thank you!
Anthony Franco
4:29
Could be a small boost but I think the narrative that free agents didn't want to play for Kapler is overstated. Correa was going to go there. Trea/Judge seemed to have specific reasons for wanting to be on the East Coast as opposed to a desire to avoid the Giants
4:30
But the Giants should be more successful in landing free agents this offseason. It'd be almost impossible to replicate the bad timing on the Correa deal falling through from last winter and Zaidi's probably feeling a decent amount of pressure (even with the new extension in hand) to land a star that pushes this team past .500
Lefty
4:30
If the Giants strike out on Yamamoto, Bellinger, Ohtani etc. could you see them trying to deal for Trout? Would age and injury history make the prospect cost minimal or would the Halos rather keep him as a drawing card?
Anthony Franco
4:32
They could try but I really can't see the Angels trading Trout unless he specifically asks out (which doesn't seem to be his personality). Arte Moreno killed talks on Ohtani at the '22 deadline immediately, even though the Angels had no shot of competing that year, because he didn't want to lose fan interest at the tail end of a losing season
4:33
Trading Trout in the same offseason they let Ohtani sign elsewhere would be a nightmare from ownership's perspective. And if they re-sign Ohtani, they can't move Trout and try to pitch themselves as a contender
Cubs
4:34
Would the Cubs off-season be considered a success if their only significant addition was Yoshi Yamamoto? (Not including Hendricks and/or Stroman coming back and then smaller 1-year deals elsewhere.) Or do you think they would have to make another big addition like Bellinger, Chapman, Alonso, etc. to become a legitimate contender?
Anthony Franco
4:36
Guess it depends on what you consider a smaller one-year deal. If Yamamoto's the big splash but they also retain Stroman, sign Brandon Belt and trade for J.D. Davis, this team looks pretty good
4:37
If it's Yamamoto, a $2MM deal for Dom Smith and some combination of Wisdom, Morel and Madrigal at third base again, I'd be pretty underwhelmed
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