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Front Office Chat: 2/16/24
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Anthony Franco
3:00
Hey everyone, hope all is well
3:01
Have to keep this one closer to an hour so I'll try to move through quickly. Let's get started
JERRY B
3:01
Has anyone given a reasonable explanation for the Mets' GM Billy Eppler's suspension?  Every team manipulates the Injury List at times, whether it's to give a player some rest or to bring someone else up to fill a need.  Ross Stripling publicly stated he wasn't injured while the Giants left him languishing on the IL.  Ineffective yes, but injured no.  Farhan Zaidi wasn't suspended.  "Phantom" injuries are commonplace, so what exactly could Eppler have done that was so egregious to warrant a year-long suspension?
Anthony Franco
3:03
I don't think we'll ever get an answer as to what Eppler did that the league considers more egregious than others. It seems like his bigger issue is that he irritated someone enough that they essentially registered a complaint with MLB
Jon Heyman reported last night that the anonymous tipster was someone in the Mets organization, which isn't surprising
Astros fan
3:04
I am assuming Bregman will not be an Astro in 2025. Where do you think he signs and what kind of contract does he get?
Anthony Franco
3:05
Already some whispers they could go out there looking for Bogaerts. That feels rich but I think he'd clear Bryant and get over $200MM if he has a typical platform year
Agree it's probably not coming from Houston
Official Gary Gaetti Fan Club
3:05
In 2018, the Cardinals signed Greg Holland on the first day of the season. and sent him to get up to speed on his own for a month b/c he had missed all of Spring Training. He was REALLY BAD up until the deadline. But he got better at the end of the season (after a trade too). He had been really good the year before, and he rebounded the following year. The point is: Spring Training is IMPORTANT.  I feel like Snell and Monty are hurting their value by not signing. They are going to be BAD if they miss more of the spring.
Anthony Franco
3:06
I'm sure there are counterexamples that don't immediately jump to mind, but generally, I agree with this
3:07
Anecdotally, it feels like guys who wait deeper into Spring Training or the regular season (Kimbrel, Profar) haven't been great right away
Ryan
3:07
Alot of the projections have the Reds at 78.5 wins. I don't understand that. I know they are just projections, but that seems low. They won 82 games last year with, I believe, a 5.28 starters ERA. They have much more depth this year and even improved a bullpen that was already pretty good. Nick Martinez was a great pick up. He initiates soft contact has a good groundball rate of 52%, plus can start or pitch multiple innings out of the bullpen effectively. They desperately needed that last year. I think they have a good chance at 88 to 90 wins. What are your thoughts?
Anthony Franco
3:09
I like the Reds more than 78 -- I've said a few times I think they're right there with Milwaukee and Chicago at the top of the Central -- but I kind of get it. Bullpen could still be rough, there's a lot of injury risk in the rotation
3:10
By nature, projections also compress teams toward the middle. Saying Cincinnati's median outcome is 78 wins doesn't mean they don't have a real shot at 88-90. There's a wider range of outcomes with teams that are so young
Guest
3:10
I read that the league was promoting the idea of a restricted time period for free agency each year. Such an arrangement is obviously and overwhelming pro-team and anti-player....and will never happen. So, my question is: why mention it and who benefits from publicly promoting something that is dead on arrival? ?
Anthony Franco
3:11
Agree that it doesn't stand a chance but I think it's somewhat interesting that Manfred's publicly angling for it for a couple reasons
3:12
1) They're going to try to put it back on the table in CBA talks in '26. PA's going to reject it, but it's worth understanding what each side's probably unattainable starting points are as they inevitably move towards the middle
3:14
2) I think there are a lot of fans that would take the league's side on this. I'm not sure I agree that a hectic offseason would be more entreating -- you're robbing from January to pay November -- but a lot of people would disagree. That's not the union's concern, but it's a fair discussion point for fans as to whether it makes the sport more compelling
Ryan
3:14
Id like to see Seattle grab one more arm. Brandon Woodruff seems like a solid fit. Let Woo and Miller rest a little and you get insurance. How much do you think Woodruff would cost on a 1 year deal?
Anthony Franco
3:15
Woodruff's going to miss most or all of next year after undergoing shoulder surgery. That's why Milwaukee non-tendered him
3:16
Probably looking at a backloaded two years to cover his rehab in '24. Should beat the $20-22MM that guys like Márquez and Mahle have gotten. I think he'd push into the low-30s over two seasons
White Sox misery
3:16
Fangraphs did a list of the 2017 prospects list. The White Sox had 16 of them on their team in the last year. Did they just pick a year and were like, hey if we get all these guys some will hit right?
Anthony Franco
3:17
Haha how many were former Royals?
Taking a flier on former interesting prospects is generally par for the course for rebuilding teams. I think it's fine but yeah, most of them aren't going to work at this point
Brian Cashman
3:17
Does a $480MM / 12 year deal get it done for Soto?

Or... does he look to break Shohei's "record AAV" (when accounting for inflation on deferments)?

He turned down $440M because it cut into his arbitration years (turned out to be $70M in earnings over the 3 years) and because Boras knew the AAV of the best players would increase to >>29.3M per year in 2025
Anthony Franco
3:19
At this point, the Yankees would probably have to go way over market value to extend him. Has to be a Godfather offer because Soto has a ton of money banked and has been pretty clear he wants to see what the market bears
3:20
I'd be surprised if he were willing to take anything under $600MM one year from free agency
TheBeatlesShow
3:20
Thanks once more, Anthony.  Well, now that Arte Moreno has made it official that he's not going to spend any money on the Angels, what do you think their record looks like at the end of '24?  90+ losses?
Anthony Franco
3:21
Yeah that feels about right. I think it's a low-70s win team. Same questions about the overall roster depth that they've had for years
Snore Season is Over!
3:21
Is the non-Ohtani section of this free agency class the equivalent to the 2017 draft class? Names you know but actual impact talent missing compared to other versions?
Anthony Franco
3:22
I think it was a solid pitching group. Nola just signed early. Yamamoto was a special case, and it's almost easy to forget how good Snell and Monty were last year because their free agency processes have been interminable
3:23
The hitting class was terrible though. We knew that going in and still overrated it because we thought (incorrectly, it seems) that teams would respond to the scarcity by overpaying mediocre bats. Hasn't really happened
The "big" Four
3:23
What are the chances none of Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger or Chapman gets a guarantee of $150M at this point?
Anthony Franco
3:24
Feels really unlikely that they all go short term. I'd still take the over on 150 for Snell pretty easily
3:25
Under on Chapman, maybe a slight under on Montgomery. Bellinger should be able to get $150MM if he just wanted to max out but if the offers are right around there, pivoting to the modified pillow contract and trying again next year makes sense
Eric
3:25
Opening day 3B for the Brewers is ???
Anthony Franco
3:25
Joey Ortiz
Battlin’ Bucco
3:25
I’ve seen a bunch of talk about the Pirates possibly trading for Edward Cabrera.. do you think it happens and if so, what kind of package will it take to get him? Thanks!
Anthony Franco
3:28
Clearly some discussions going on there. Seems reasonable that a deal gets done. Jason Mackey has suggested that they'd build a return around one of the controllable second base options (Gonzales, Bae) and a couple of solid but not elite prospects
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