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Front Office Chat: 2/9/24
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Anthony Franco
2:58
Hey everyone, hope you all had a good week!
2:59
Looking forward to another of these
TheBeatlesShow
2:59
Hey, Anthony.  The great phrase in the English language..."Pitchers and Catchers report today".  But looking over the past few months, what do you think were the five teams that had the worst off season?  (In order, if you can.)
Anthony Franco
3:01
This is off the cuff and there are still some free agents out there who could change it, but the Padres, Angels, Blue Jays (mostly because of the lost opportunity with how close it seemed they were on Ohtani) and Twins have all had tough offseasons. For SD and Minnesota, it's directly related to payroll constraints
3:04
There are a few others you could throw in there. Red Sox haven't really picked a direction. The Marlins have done nothing to the roster, although I'm optimistic about the Peter Bendix hiring. It's another offseason of the Rockies doing essentially nothing to show they have a plan beyond waiting for a few of their international prospects and hoping that their veterans play better than they have in years
The Wander Franco situation isn
Whoops
3:06
The Wander Franco situation isn't an "offseason" question, but it's pretty hard to see him playing in MLB again given the allegations that have come out throughout the winter. The on-field impact of that is secondary, obviously, but it's a clear hit to the Rays' long-term outlook
Angels
3:06
Shouldn’t they sign Snell and Belli at this point? Why not go all-in one more time?
Anthony Franco
3:07
I think so but it's not my money
If Moreno's willing to push the payroll back to where it had been late in the Ohtani years, I'd push in again. They can't really rebuild but they're not good enough to compete with the roster they have right now
3:08
Signing Bellinger and Snell would put them in the Wild Card picture and they could hope to get hot at the right time from there. Overhauling the bullpen isn't really moving the needle
Scott Boras’ Pile of Money
3:08
What do agents get commission wise on an MLB contract? Is it over the annual amount or what they get yearly?
Anthony Franco
3:09
Probably varies by player but I think the generally accepted estimate is around 3%
I assume that comes out of the annual salary but I'm not sure
AirYordan
3:09
Do you think a Snell 3-4 year deal can happen instead of 6-7?
Anthony Franco
3:10
Don't see the appeal of that for Snell. It sends him back to free agency at 34 or 35, he's not really young enough to cash in twice unless he ages like Wheeler or Scherzer
Newby
3:11
Hey Anthony. The Jays have most of their big contracts coming off the books in at the end of 2025. With a reletively weak farm system, and being in the ultra competive AL East, what do you see as their options moving forward?
Anthony Franco
3:13
Yeah they're in a sneaky interesting spot. The expectation is that they're good enough to compete for a playoff spot over the next couple seasons. Like you mentioned, they've got a lot of guys coming off the books two or three years from now so they should have the financial ability to make a competitive extension offer to Bichette and Kirk (assuming he has a rebound season)
3:15
They probably just play it out for now, but they'd be a fascinating team to watch if injuries or underperformance knocks them out of the playoff mix in the first half this year. I don't think that's likely, but it happens to a handful of expected contenders every year. If that happened, they probably seriously consider trading a couple of the veteran starters and kicking off some kind of reboot
Official Gary Gaetti Fan Club
3:15
I read somewhere that due to their arm-side break, change ups are rarely thrown to same-handed hitters (ie RHP don't throw change ups to RHH). That's really interesting! (And I'm not sure how much I believe it). Are there any books or articles you would recommend to someone who wants to better understand pitching strategy?
Anthony Franco
3:17
On changeups specifically, I think that's generally true. Conventional wisdom kind of dictates that you're better off throwing pitches that move away from the hitter -- breaking balls to same-handed opponents, changeups to players of opposite handedness
3:19
We've recently seen some pitchers move away from that and use more same-handed changeups. Some guys just have a much better changeup than breaking ball and would rather go after hitters with their best weapons. There's also a game theory element to it. If the hitter knows you're not going to throw a changeup, they can sit on one of the fastball or breaking ball with more confidence
3:21
I don't have a specific answer to your broader question about a book or article (happy to post any recs from the chat). The work Eno Sarris has done at FanGraphs and now The Athletic has been the most informative for me about pitching approaches and data, though, so I'd point you to his stuff generally
Arise, Sir Loin of Beef
3:21
Should the Mets sign JD Martinez or go with Vientos to see once and for all if he's a major leaguer?
Anthony Franco
3:21
I'm not a Vientos guy -- just think there's too much stiffness in the swing for him to make contact consistently -- and would rather they make a run at JDM
3:23
The sort of open-minded value approach they're taking at DH is a little strange, though. I understand the concept, but it's somewhat inconsistent to say that their main goal is to figure out what they have for 2025 while dabbling in blocking one of those guys in case an opportunity presents itself for a '24 season that they sort of care about but aren't really committing themselves to
Cito's Mustache
3:23
Re: pitch approach and data, Lance Brozdowski is a must-follow on Twitter IMO. He posts some great pitching breakdowns on Youtube as well.
Anthony Franco
3:23
Seconded
3:26
Lance is an awesome dude too. One of the first people to give me an opportunity to write about baseball (for a site that has long since gone defunct haha). Always supportive of whatever we wanted to do and gave thoughtful, constructive feedback as an editor. Super happy to see his success with Marquee
AirYordan
3:26
Thoughts on the Altuve extension and the Astros contention window?
Anthony Franco
3:27
Money seems about right. I looked at a few extension possibilities for the Astros early in the offseason and guessed something around 5/110 on Altuve
He beat that but an extra $3MM annually isn't crazy, seems fine for a franchise icon
3:28
I don't expect they'll be able to maintain an annual 100-win pace once Tucker, Bregman, Valdez get to free agency but I like the group of Altuve, Yordan, Chas, Javier, etc. enough that they should be a legitimate playoff contender for the bulk of the decade
Tom the Raptor
3:29
Cody Bellinger played only 130 games last year.  So did K.Kiermaier.  So did G.Springer, if you deduct his DH games.  If the outfield was split 4 ways, each player would get 120 games over the year.  Add to that the games Springer could get when J.Turner played 3rd.  Bellinger could certainly get more than 130 games, so the only loser in this set up would be D.Varsho, who could also come in for later innings.  Does this rational mean the Jays could sign Bellinger ??  This assumes the Jays' ownership can handle the extra extra cost.  This would also mean there would be a good bat for pinch-hitting.      Thank you.
Anthony Franco
3:29
Yeah they could still make it work from a roster perspective. You laid it all out well
3:31
Varsho's probably overqualified for the technical fourth outfield role in which he would start the season, but someone's going to get hurt -- Kiemaier has an extended injury history, Springer and Turner are aging -- and Turner has enough ability to play third or second that he doesn't have to be a full-time DH as Belt was last season
Guest
3:32
With the sale of the Orioles coming up for review...the commish has hinted that it might provide a pathway to resolve the Orioles/Nats dispute over broadcast rights.  Any sense of whether this is more happy talk by MLB....or a serious effort is planned?
Anthony Franco
3:33
Seems like real optimism. If Rubenstein is willing to sell the O's share in MASN to Leonsis, which has been floated but not 100% reported, that feels like it kick off a path to a real resolution
3:34
It removes the stumbling block for Leonsis if he wants to circle back with the Lerner family about buying the Nats. You could ostensibly have both ownership groups changing within a couple years and not have the longstanding acrimony between them impeding progress
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