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Front Office Chat: 3/31/23
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Anthony Franco
4:29
I like the Angels more than you do and expect they'll hang around the Wild Card. But to your point, if they're four-plus games out of a playoff spot around the deadline, I think they're at an inflection point
4:31
Letting Ohtani walk for a qualifying offer if they miss the playoffs in 2023 is unacceptable. So they either have to be firmly in the mix and push in at the deadline, believe they're more than 50% likely to re-sign Ohtani (which feels very unlikely), or trade him this summer
4:32
If it turns out to be Option C, then there becomes a real argument about whether it's worth talking with Trout about potentially waiving his no-trade rights. If Ohtani walks, it's hard to see how this team competes from 2024-26
4:33
So no, I don't think they're at that point yet. But the next four months are probably the most pivotal the organization has had since they signed Ohtani for determining the long-term plan
Casey
4:33
Thoughts on the Gary Sanchez signing? Surprised he wound up having to settle for a minor league deal?
Anthony Franco
4:34
Would've expected him to get a major league deal at the start of the offseason. Anyone who hasn't signed by the end of March having to take a minor league contract at that point isn't a huge surprise though
4:35
As for the fit with the Giants, it's fine. They have a bunch of upper level catchers, none of whom are necessarily good. That's also true of Sánchez but he's a depth option who's had more MLB success than virtually anyone else they could stash in Triple-A, so why not?
thebeatlesshow
4:35
OK, Anthony.  A question you guys have gotten before...with a twist.  If you were to take the established major leaguers who don't have a major league...or any...contract yet, put them together as one team (if you had 26 of them)...BUT, if each of them matched their best years..how many games would they win??  (And thanks again.)
Anthony Franco
4:36
Ok, I like this twist. What remains of the free agent market is currently awful but they're a lot of players who are past their primes but were once pretty good
4:38
Lineup is something like Plawecki, Sanó, Robinson Canó -- an MVP talent in this scenario --, Andrelton, probably Didi Gregorius at third, Kole Calhoun, Albert Almora and Justin Upton (who I'll assume is still willing to sign for this even though it seems like he's unofficially done as a player)
4:40
That's pretty good. Rotation has a Cy Young winner in Keuchel, Mike Minor, Chris Archer, Aníbal Sánchez and Michael Pineda (all of whom have received Cy Young votes or been All-Stars in their careers)
4:41
Bullpen isn't deep but Zack Britton and Ken Giles are basically "best reliever in baseball" options in the late innings
4:42
It's an easy playoff team for me and I think it might be the best team in baseball. Injuries could tear it apart quickly but the top-end talent is very good
John B
4:42
I saw that you were the only staff writer that picked the Giants to make the playoffs, and also Logan Webb for CY. Would love to know your reasons for those picks. Thanks
Anthony Franco
4:44
They're related obviously. If Webb takes the next step forward -- mixed bag on that in game one -- then it's one of the better rotations in the league. The lineup doesn't have the star talent other teams do but there's a decent amount of matchup possibilities that I think they could coax slightly above-average production out of it
Bullpen's still a concern for me but I like the Taylor Rogers addition
4:48
I also just want to go off the board a little bit in a "season prediction" exercise like that. If you gave me even money and asked me to choose which of the Giants or Phillies would win more games this year, I'd probably take Philadelphia (even though it's the other way around in the picks). But it's not particularly useful to anyone or entertaining to just go by FanGraphs' playoff probabilities in sending out my thoughts on the season
4:50
So it's a way to signify that I like the Giants more than consensus and am relatively down on Philadelphia while sticking my neck out there in an exercise that has no stakes and is meant to be entertaining. It's not deliberately contrarian or anything, but there's a balance between that and going chalk and ignoring that the season's unpredictable and therefore fun
Guest
4:50
Random that the big guys got hit yesterday? Cardinals Mikolas, 3.1IP, 10H, 5ER, 13.50 ERA; Blue Jays Manoah, 3.1IP, 9H, 5ER, 13.50 ERA; Red Sox, Kluber, 3.1IP, 6H, 5ER, 13.50 ERA; Phillies Nola, 3.2IP, 4H, 5ER, 12.27 ERA; Rangers, DeGrom, 3.2IP, 6H, 5ER, 12.27 ERA
Anthony Franco
4:51
Mikolas and particularly Kluber shouldn't really be Opening Day starters in the prototypical sense at this stage of their careers. Mikolas wouldn't have been if Wainwright hadn't gotten hurt
4:52
But generally speaking -- and particularly so in the case of deGrom, Nola and Manoah -- no reason to believe it's not a blip. Everyone has bad games throughout the course of a season. They mostly go unnoticed when they happen on June 12. An Opening Day one isn't necessarily more meaningful than any other, it's just more visible
Eddie
4:53
Michael King question.  Is he recovered from his surgery and pitching like last year?  Do you think, when healthy, that he will take over the closer role from Holmes for the Yankees?
Anthony Franco
4:55
The stuff looked the same this month. He was dominant in Spring Training (11 strikeouts, one walk in 9 2/3). I think he's back, yeah
Guessing they'd rather keep Holmes in the ninth though. King's super valuable in that high-leverage bridge role in the middle innings, kind of as Chad Green was for them for the longest time
Cubs !?
4:55
Ironic that now that the Cubs are so good that rivals' fans are calling for their breakup already, that Wrigley wasn't sold out on Opening Day?
Anthony Franco
4:57
Would be curious to see how Tim feels about where fanbase enthusiasm is at. My dad's nominally a Cubs fan but lukewarm on this version of the team, which he finds a bunch of relatively unexciting veterans
4:58
Obviously no one person is "representative" of an entire fanbase but I can see why he looks at the roster and is just generally unenthused, even if the results should be ok
thebeatlesshow
4:59
My best analysis is on the lack of throw-overs is that more bases will be stolen but it won't result in appreciably more runs being scored and the risk of players getting injured will counter-balance the greater chance of being successful.  (We saw this in the 80's...where more stolen bases didn't translate into more crooked numbers...more motion doesn't translate into more action.)  And ultimately...soon...teams will work with pitchers to hold runners on and put a premium on catchers with strong arms.   What do you think about this?
Anthony Franco
5:00
Touched on this above with regards to the idea that we'll see slower players running more often. Your point on the injury risk is a good one, although I think that's mostly a concern for top-end talents. I don't know that clubs are going to put the red light on to make sure their second baseman who hits seventh in the order doesn't break his thumb diving into second base
5:02
As for the catcher makeup, yeah, I think the rule changes are definitely going to prioritize arm strength back there. That's not new obviously -- arm strength has always mattered -- but between basestealing and a potential automatic strike zone down the line, there'll probably be fewer Jacob Stallings types around the league
Arthur Dent
5:02
Following up on waht’s possibly thouasands of Ohtani questions… if the Halos are out of it and decide to move him at the deadline, what kind of return can they reap?
Anthony Franco
5:03
Less than what Washington got for Soto because of the club control. I think it'd be pretty similar (maybe slightly below) what the Nats got from L.A. for Turner/Scherzer at the 2021 deadline
Alek
5:03
I KNOW IT'S EARLY... but it seems like many of the teams who signed older or more injury prone players are witnessing the risk to their ego-driven actions.
FriarGuy19
5:03
We're 0-1. Fire Melvin, get rid of Machado!  Overreaction?
Anthony Franco
5:04
Haha we had to get a couple of these in here (though the second one is obviously tongue in cheek)
As a Yankee fan
5:04
Can you ban all questions regarding the return that either Hicks or Donaldson would provide?
Anthony Franco
5:04
This is the only one I got today!
Darrell
5:04
Thank you for the Chat! A different kind of question, how you guys ever had a subscriber that gave you an idea for something that you guys have implemented or helped you on this site?
Anthony Franco
5:05
Yeah we sometimes spin off chat questions (both subscriber ones and main site ones) into posts. I did a Front Office email over the 2021-22 offseason comparing Michael Conforto/Kyle Schwarber as free agents as a direct result of a question I got in here
5:06
A lot of our coverage of the Braves' payroll stuff (why we didn't peg them to re-sign Swanson or do much of anything really) early in the last offseason came because of reader questions
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