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Front Office Chat: 4/12/24
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Anthony Franco
3:48
Hey everyone, hope you're all wrapping up a good week
I'll need to wrap this one up right around 5:00 ET but I'll jump in a few minutes early to take some of the advance questions. Let's get rolling
Guest
3:48
What did you think of the Rafaela extension? moderate overpay for a glove first OF? kind of reminds me of miles straw
Anthony Franco
3:50
Yeah, moderate overpay feels right. My confidence level in Colt Keith, who got around $29MM and bought out up to nine years, is higher than it is for Rafaela. Boston guaranteed him $50MM over eight with a club option for a ninth
3:51
They're wildly different players obviously, just tying them together because they're the most recent extensions for guys in that service range who aren't Jackson Chourio-level prospects
3:53
That said, I do like Rafaela. I'm by no means a scout, but I stumbled into him during a short season game in Lowell back in 2019 and thought he was a pretty intriguing player. He has obviously developed into a far more talented prospect than anyone expected at that time, largely because of how quickly he took to the outfield
3:54
I'm more of a fan of his than I was of Straw's at the time Cleveland extended him. Rafaela has legitimate offensive upside, it's just a question of whether his approach will be selective enough to reach it. Straw always felt like a clearly well below-average player because there's zero raw power
3:55
Long-winded way of saying that it's more than I expected and I probably would've waited a year to see how the approach plays against MLB pitching before making that move, but I also like the player enough that I get why they did it
Stairs rips one
3:55
What do you make of the Mets taking two of three from ATL…more indicative of ATL’s suddenly suspect rotation or the Metsies hitting their stride? Lindor isn’t going to go oh-fer for much longer and the young guys are continuing to perform.
Anthony Franco
3:57
I think the Mets can hit but I'd put that series mostly on Atlanta running out Allan Winans for a start
3:58
Suspect is a good word for it. I'm not really worried about Atlanta because they should hit enough that it doesn't really matter, but losing Strider puts a lot of pressure on Morton to dial in the command quickly and López to continue holding up
3:59
Fried should be fine, not worried there
Guest
3:59
It feels like we are coming out of a period of "crazy money" contracts into a much more sane period. Is that because of the regional sports network (and prices will come back once that's resolved) or because teams have realized what a poor investment large FA contracts are (unless they are paid to a durable superstar) Apart from Soto, which free agents next winter or the winter after are the most likely to command $300k or more?
Anthony Franco
4:00
We're going to put out our first Free Agent power rankings soon (thinking early next week) so we've thought a lot about both these questions
4:01
On the overarching "decline of the objectively stupid contract," there's some amount of both things you mentioned, but I think it's more about teams just making more rational decisions. That's particularly true for the mid-level players signing four or five years at $15MM annually
4:02
Those contracts bust at a pretty high rate and a few of the teams that gave them out in previous offseasons (e.g. Marlins, White Sox) have made front office changes
4:03
I don't know how much of the Avisail García falls on Kim Ng vs. Derek Jeter or whoever, but I feel pretty confident that Peter Bendix wasn't touching that
As for the top non-Soto player in next year's class, it's Corbin Burnes. I don't think he's getting $300MM but he's the only other player I'd put above $200MM right now
Philly A's
4:03
Should the A's listen to offers on Mason Milller?  I guess no one is untouchable..  ugh gonna be a long decade.
4:04
A's took 2 series wins over the Tigers and Rangers.  Wild Card? Or fire sale for Sears, Blackburn and Miller?
Anthony Franco
4:04
I would listen on Miller because I think every team should always be open to offers on relievers, particularly ones who have the kind of injury history that Miller does
4:06
I do not think they'll actually receive a significant enough offer that they feel compelled to make a move when he's controllable for six years. That's particularly true if they're serious about stretching him back out as a starter next season, although I'd guess he ultimately settles in as a high-leverage reliever (which is how they're using him this season)
Feels safe to say the A's are not winning a Wild Card haha
JL
4:06
How soon before the Os make a trade?
Who will the Os target to improve the roster using their minor league depth?
Anthony Franco
4:07
O's traded for Yohan Ramírez last night!
4:08
I wouldn't expect anything significant before June. Teams almost always take April through at least the first half of June as evaluation time. Even if the O's wanted to jump earlier, there aren't going to be many teams willing to move players who'd help two weeks into the season
4:09
It'd also be totally fair for Baltimore to wait on Bradish and Means to get back to decide how concerned they are about the rotation
4:12
Adding another high-end starter still feels like the big midseason task. The teams that project as clear sellers right now mostly don't have those guys (aside from Jesús Luzardo) but that'll open up as the competitive picture around the league gets clearer
Padres could put Cease back out there if they're struggling. Giants could market Snell if they fall out, Mets with Severino. There'll be guys, but it's too early to say with any kind of certainty
Eddie Boy
4:12
We have had some rule changes the last couple of years that have transformed the game.  Is there a rule that hasn't been implemented yet, that you would like to see?
Anthony Franco
4:13
Hmm, this is an interesting one
4:14
Probably something to incentivize teams to stick with their starting pitchers longer. I've always kinda liked the "double hook" DH idea -- a team loses its DH once it goes to the bullpen -- to mitigate some of the increased relief usage and force teams to rely on their position player depth a little more late in games
4:16
I'd be surprised if we ever see that -- doubt the league or MLBPA care enough to push for it -- but I'd at least be curious to see how that one plays out. I don't miss pitcher hitting but I've always been partial to some of the late-game weirdness/matchup plays you'd get with NL games when teams were deep into their bench. That kinda died with the universal DH
EXPO
4:16
What team won't be able to keep their win percentage where it is?
Anthony Franco
4:17
Well the Yankees aren't going to keep winning almost 80% of their games and the Marlins will play better than a .154 clip, but that's probably not the spirit of the question
4:19
Nice start for the Pirates but I still think they're the worst team in the NL Central. The Royals are probably the biggest pleasant surprise so far, and while I don't think they're going to win the division, I buy that they're better than I thought they were two weeks ago
Jack
4:19
Victor Scott II has really struggled and I assume he will be sent down as Stl outfielders get healthy. Think he is future CF or future 4th outfielder?
Anthony Franco
4:20
Fourth OF, don't think he'll hit enough to be a regular
Hope I'm wrong because he's a fun player
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