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Front Office Chat: 8/25/23
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Anthony Franco
3:58
Hey everyone, hope you all had a good week!
3:59
Decent number of questions in here, let's get going
Flounder
3:59
How much will Ohtani's arm injury cost him? Any effect on the next contract?
TheBeatlesShow
4:00
Ok, Anthony...for probably the 1000th time, what does Ohtani's contract look like now after the torn ACL?  (And thanks for the chat.)
Ohtani
4:00
How many questions have you gotten about me.  Specifically how the injury will affect my free agency
Anthony Franco
4:00
Have to start here
4:01
The short and unsatisfying answer is that no one really knows. We had an email thread kind of kicking around our initial reactions, but it's both an obviously unprecedented situation and one on which we still need more information -- specifically whether he'll require a second TJ
4:03
We all still think he's the clear #1 free agent in the upcoming class and will be able to beat Judge for the largest guarantee ever. Steve has kicked around the idea of Ohtani maybe preferring a shorter-term deal with an opt-out and a ridiculous AAV ($50MM or something) to get back to the market when he's at full strength, but I don't find that particularly likely
4:04
At this point, there are always going to be questions about his arm health. Either he's pitching through a partially torn UCL or he underwent a second significant surgery within a five-year span
4:05
But even if the pitching aspect isn't viable for the long haul -- and there's nothing to suggest we're at that point yet -- he's an elite hitter and a good enough athlete to probably play a plus right field (ironically a broadly similar profile as Judge)
4:06
All of which is to say that I think he lost quite a bit of money (maybe as much as $100MM) but would still guess he lands in the $450-500MM range and easily breaks the all-time contract record
Will in Westport
4:06
Hey Anthony,  Is Zach Gelof for real?  Did anyone see his stats so far at Oakland as a probability?  Thanks.
Anthony Franco
4:08
He's not going to slug .610 but he was a really good player at UVA and had a strong minor league track record. He'll need to improve the contact rate as the power inevitably comes back but I think there's enough power, strike zone awareness and the ability to play a key infield position (either second or third base) that he'll be an above-average regular
Drew
4:08
Obviously both are a long shot, but if you had to put the "future MVP" tag on one of them would you choose Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker?
Anthony Franco
4:09
Yeah I don't think either of them has that kind of upside, largely because they'd have to be the best hitter in baseball to win an MVP without offering much defensive value
4:11
Walker's younger, had the better minor league production, more natural contact skills. He needs to get the ball off the ground more to reach his ceiling, but he's still super young. I think he has the better chance than Gorman of becoming a superstar, even if Gorman is the better bet to be a good everyday player since he's already been that at the MLB level
Cohen
4:11
I think trading Alonso makes sense.  But is there realistically a team who will give up a young pitcher for a one year 1B rental?
Anthony Franco
4:12
Depends on the quality of player obviously. They're not getting a proven mid-rotation starter with multiple years of club control, though. I wouldn't give up any of the current members of the Seattle rotation for Alonso, for instance, although I imagine the M's would part with Emerson Hancock for him (Mets would need more)
4:14
I think something a little better than what Teoscar went for last winter -- three years of a very good reliever and a solid but not elite pitching prospect -- is about right. Alonso's the kind of player who has less trade value than most fans would expect because the control window's so small, he's limited defensively and already quite expensive in arbitration
Dodger Dave
4:14
With at least half a dozen close to mlb ready pitchers at AA and AAA, will Dodgers have issues with roster spots this off season — nesessitating trades?
Anthony Franco
4:14
Mentioned this last week but I could see them moving Grove for a marginal return. I don't think they have to deal any of their higher-touted arms. Pitching depth is a good thing
4:16
The Marlins were in this spot a few months ago. They traded López, Rogers got hurt, Cueto was terrible and they faced innings questions on Eury Pérez. By the deadline they were taking a flier on Ryan Weathers just to ensure they had enough depth. Teams run through pitching quickly
Matt
4:16
Cubs have a lot of capital , financial and prospect-wise. How do you see them using that this offseason?
Anthony Franco
4:16
I imagine they'll be my pick for Matt Chapman
4:17
Could use another high-end position player, particularly if Bellinger prices himself out of their range. Infield fit would be ideal given the upper minors outfield talent. Could try to bring Candelario back as well
Thank you for the chat!
4:18
Bieber to the Reds make sense this offseason? What kind of package gets it done?
Anthony Franco
4:19
I can kind of see it but I think the Reds might be better off going for someone a little safer. They've already got a few high-upside starters with elevated injury risk. I'd like it more for them if Bieber gets back on the mound this year and at least enters the offseason with an ostensibly clean bill of health
Thank you for the chat!
4:19
Does a Mike Trout trade need to be seriously considered this offseason? I have no idea how to value a trade with the injuries, contract, yet still elite performance, what type of prospect capital does it take? If the Yankees wanted to make a move and balance some salary with Stanton, what kind of prospects need to be kicked in?
Anthony Franco
4:20
I don't think the Angels will consider it. If anything, ownership probably doesn't have interest in losing Ohtani and Trout in the same offseason for attendance reasons. (And if they re-sign Ohtani, they're obviously not trading Trout.)
4:22
From a pure baseball perspective, there's a pretty good argument for getting out from the majority of that deal, adding to a very bad farm system and going with a scorched Earth rebuild if Ohtani walks. Just don't think it'll happen
Julio Urias
4:22
Now that I am pitching well again, will teams offer me $200+ million at the end of the year and will the Dodgers be one of them?
Anthony Franco
4:22
I'm not there on Urias but I was the lowest out of Steve, Tim and Darragh when we were ranking guys for our upcoming refresh of the Power Rankings
4:24
The home run spike is a little alarming to me. Even in his excellent run lately, he's generally not running huge strikeout totals. Career-low swinging strike rate
4:26
He's always been more of an elite command artist than overpowering, but the velocity has backed up a little bit in recent years and I'm not sure how much more leeway he has with the stuff if he's going to maintain ace-level production. I think the stuff regression gives back a lot of the advantage he has over the other free agent pitchers with his youth
John
4:26
Is there any chance either Boone or Showalter are still managing in New York next year?
Anthony Franco
4:26
Buck feels likelier to me but that's just a guess. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they're both retained or both dismissed
Drew
4:26
Would you rather build a rotation of a #1 through #5, or five #3 starters (the average of 1-5)?
Anthony Franco
4:27
Depends on the rest of my roster composition. For the regular season, I'd rather have five above-average but not elite starters. But if I have the Braves' position player group or something, give me the 1-5
4:28
Having the higher end talent takes on extra importance in the playoffs, when the off days allow you to lean really hard on your best arms
Thank you for the chat!
4:28
Fangraphs ran a replacement series and it showed how many playoff teams have poor performance out of the DH position. Have teams overcompensated the role in lieu of flexibility/rotation?
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