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Front Office Chat: 9/1/23
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Anthony Franco
4:00
Hey everyone, hope you all had a good week!
Joe J.
4:01
It's great to see the rookies getting a look this season. Which ones are on the Yankees opening day roster next year?
Anthony Franco
4:03
Peraza should be. I think Dominguez could play his way into it but we'll see how the next month goes. I'd guess no on Periera and Wells. A few too many strikeouts for Periera right now -- he's still pretty young, so not super concerning -- and I imagine they'll want a little more defensive certainty to start next season than Wells provides
cashman
4:03
with bader no longer an option, will the yankees sign bellinger in the offseason? Left handed power bat could play well at yankee stadium. If they don't sign him, what might else they do?
Anthony Franco
4:06
Bellinger fits there, sure. Nothing stops them from circling back on Bader although I agree that waiving him makes it feel unlikely. If Dominguez plays well enough, they could give him center and add a rotational corner piece (Joc, Canha, maybe a Kepler trade)
Ryan
4:06
What do you think a Teo Hernandez  contract looks like in the off season? Would a three year for 45 million(18, 15, 12) with an opt out after year one be something?
Anthony Franco
4:08
I think that's a little light given how well he's playing right now. If he looks like peak Teoscar for the stretch run, I'd probably have him at four years in the $16-18MM AAV range. Above Avi Garcia, right around Schwarber from a couple years ago
Those guys didn't have the QO and it seems like Teoscar's playing his way back into that, but he's more consistent than Schwarber and just better than Avi
Giantsphan
4:08
Hi Anthony,  do the Giants make the playoffs or not?  7 of their last 10 against the Dodgers is a rough end to the season… thank you
Anthony Franco
4:09
I've been on the bandwagon all year, not jumping off now
Admittedly I stuck with them into late August last year too and they let me down
John B
4:09
Thanks for the chat. So I find it interesting that the teams with the three highest payrolls are a combined 188-215 and that the Mets and Yankees are in last place and the Padres would be if it weren't for the Rockies. Don't know what to make of it but it seems money isn't the answer to everything.
Anthony Franco
4:12
Money definitely helps -- I can't imagine there are too many years where the top three payroll teams were this bad -- but yeah, it's a reminder that organizational depth matters (probably more so in MLB than in any of the other big American sports leagues). I expected all three of those teams to be better than they were, but they did all go into the season with pretty top-heavy rosters
4:13
It's also a testament to how good the Dodgers have been for more than a decade (or how impressive the Yankees' streak of 30 years of above .500 play had been). Spending helps but it's not a guarantee of anything
Draft pick
4:14
What's your take on Baltimore's draft pick this year, Enrique Bradford? Is he the next Billy Hamilton or will he learn to hit and get on base, since he won't be able to steal 1st?
Anthony Franco
4:16
I think he'll be a below-average offensive player since there's not a ton of power and he's got kind of an odd load in his swing, but I like his strike zone awareness better than Hamilton's
Brennan
4:16
We know the kind of player Will Brennan is today—utterly average—but will he grow into something more, perhaps a Michael Brantley (with a bit of sped) based on his minor-league stats?
Anthony Franco
4:17
Very few players become Michael Brantley. He always had elite strike zone feel, almost never swung at bad pitches. Brennan has great contact skills but swings at everything
4:19
I do think Brennan's better than he's shown this year, but I think his upside is closer to the kind of player Benintendi has become than Brantley
Julio Urias
4:19
2 part question ahead.  What are the chances that he signs with the Reds this off-season?  Also what’s the deal look like??
Anthony Franco
4:20
I actually like the fit on paper. They've got almost nothing on the books past this year, talented young position player group that needs a little more stability, Urías' youth aligns with the Reds' timetable
4:21
All that said, it's hard to project the Reds playing at the top of the rotation market given their spending habits of the past few years. The Castellinis will be more aggressive next winter than they have been -- it's hard to play things anymore cautiously -- but Urías is probably going over $150MM and I just can't see ownership going there
Cards Fan
4:22
I think last year the Tigers were considering listening to offers on Tarik Skubal.  Do you think they would do that again this offseason?  Think he would be a good addition to Cardinals' rotation.
Anthony Franco
4:22
Don't think Detroit would move him. He looks  so good again coming back from the flexor surgery
4:24
I like the Tigers and Cardinals as a fit for a trade involving a pitcher and a position player -- maybe even more so than the STL/Seattle chatter that came up all the time -- but I think it's Manning or Reese Olson as opposed to Skubal
Double M
4:24
Matt Manning from Detroit seems to be one of those love or hate pitchers. At age 25, do you think his good Ratio and ERA are sustainable?
Anthony Franco
4:24
Guess we should go here next
4:26
No, I don't think he's a true talent 3.62 ERA pitcher. It's really hard to be when you're missing as few bats as Manning is unless you have elite command of a sinker that opponents can't elevate
4:27
But he's a good athlete who throws strikes and has the breaking ball mix that's tough for right-handed hitters, so I do like him as a solid back-end starter. More of a low-mid 4.00 ERA type though
Mike
4:27
With David Hamilton's demotion, is Cedanne Rafaela likely to be up with the Red Sox through the end of the season?
Anthony Franco
4:29
Cora seemed noncommittal on it earlier in the week but I'd keep him around and probably play him regularly over Duvall in CF once their faint playoff hopes are officially closed
Question Mark
4:29
Have they decided if there will be the ghost runner during the playoffs?  Will they add a few seconds on the pitch clock during the post season as well?
Anthony Franco
4:30
No ghost runner during the playoffs. The MLBPA has pushed for adding some time to the pitch clock in the postseason but Manfred seemed pretty dismissive of the idea during the All-Star Break
4:31
Still dislike the extra-inning runner but I'm with Manfred on the pitch clock. Players have had six months to adjust to it, I don't see a compelling reason to add a few seconds when the games matter most
The Beatles Show
4:31
How much has the increase in stolen bases helped the increase on scoring...Any stats on that?  (I've felt for years that the steal was more style over substance.  A guy steals second.  Exciting.  But he's left there or the next guy hits a homer and he scores anyway.  And the steal comes at the risk of an out or an injury.  And I think analytics bore that out...leading to their de-emphasis.)  (Sorry for the rant, but what do you think...or know?)
Anthony Franco
4:33
Yeah I think you're right. I think the increased base stealing is about more action as opposed to meaningfully changing the run environment
4:35
Runs are way up this year, as you mentioned, but it seems a lot more about hitting just being better. That's probably some combination of the ball jumping more, and shift restrictions than the baserunning
Last year, the average team scored 4.28 runs per game and the league had a .706 OPS. This season, it's 4.60 runs per game and a .734 OPS
4:36
Two years ago, when basestealing was even lower than 2022 and way down from this year, the league had a .728 OPS and 4.53 runs per game
4:37
So I think it's marginally helpful but far more about guys just reaching base and hitting for power than they have for a few seasons (particularly last year)
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