JotCast | Front Office Chat: 9/8/23

Front Office Chat: 9/8/23

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Anthony Franco

3:55

Hey everyone, hope you're all concluding a good week!

We'll get going a few minutes early here

steve

3:55

What sort of contract offer does Rhys get from the Phillies? He is a popular guy with the fans, but do they want to move on from him and look for a defensive upgrade?

Anthony Franco

3:57

Assuming his knee is progressing as expected, I'd just make the qualifying offer. I imagine he'd lean towards accepting if they put one year and around $20MM on the table, which is about where I'd value him if I were a team

3:58

Hoskins has pretty consistently played at that level throughout his career. I don't see any reason to believe he won't come back to pre-injury effectiveness. It's not like he's a player who relied on plus mobility and athleticism anyways

Cory

3:58

If the Orioles win 100 games, will this be one of the least talked about 100 win teams in recent memory? Because they don’t have one standout statistic, it seems like everyone discounts their win total

Anthony Franco

4:01

Probably. I think they're generally perceived as super talented on the position player side and fun as hell. Both things are true, of course, but they're likely still a bit underrated overall because their position player group is so young and (aside from Adley and maybe Mullins) hasn't really established themselves as household names to more casual fans

Guest

4:01

Who are the best and worst general managers?

Anthony Franco

4:03

Friedman (Dodgers), Neander (Rays) and Anthopoulos (Braves) are the ones I'd probably put in the top tier, which is reflected in the record. Jerry Dipoto has done a great job in Seattle, maybe Mike Elias (Baltimore) is entering that discussion but I'd like a little larger track record in terms of MLB player acquisition to put him there yet

4:05

Worst is so much tougher, because it's a really difficult job to hold onto if you're actively bad at it. If I were doing a 1-30 GM ranking, a lot of the people who'd be in the bottom third (J.J. Picollo in Kansas City, David Forst in Oakland, Chris Getz with the White Sox) are there largely because they're relatively new leading baseball ops departments and stepped into awful situations

4:06

They're more unproven than bad, I'd say

4:07

Kind of a similar situation with Bill Schmidt in Colorado, although a lot of his moves have continued the Rockies' general trend of overrating their own players, which is concerning. I've generally not been super high on the Marlins' and Reds' moves in free agency, but Kim Ng and Nick Krall are working with lower-tier payrolls and they've both done well in constructing an internal prospect pipeline

Closers

4:07

Are Jhoan Duran and Andres Munoz ever going to dominate the 9th inning like real elite closers? Both seem to have periodic meltdowns. Is it growing pains, or a permanent inability to live up to their hype?

Anthony Franco

4:08

I think Duran's more or less already there. He's got a career 2.20 ERA and 33.2% strikeout rate in 123 innings. Hard to ask for much better than that

4:10

Munoz's strike-throwing can get a little wobbly so I'd have him a tick below Duran, but he's clearly a very good reliever already. Seattle openly detests the idea of naming a set "closer," though, so I don't think they'll ever commit to using Munoz in the ninth inning to the extent that people who have him on their fantasy team would probably like

Buffy the Umpire Slayer

4:10

Will we see Trout or Ohtani again this season?

Anthony Franco

4:12

I don't see a point to bringing Trout back. Ohtani should be, though. They've deliberately kept him off the injured list and he's still taking swings pregame

Unless they finalize the elbow surgery he'll very likely require within the next couple days, I imagine he'll be able to hit through the oblique discomfort. Doesn't seem like a major issue

Lefty

4:12

The Giants pitching staff is pretty good with more young arms on the horizon. Offense is obviously the problem. But since attracting a big free agent bat has been fruitless, should the Giants pursue Yamamoto? Focus on pitching (and speed and defense) and win 2-1 games. For a team that wins half their games over two seasons after winning 107, it might be beneficial to form an identity.

Anthony Franco

4:16

I'd prioritize the bat. They've done a pretty good job at hitting on the mid-level pitching acquisitions but been kind of hamstrung when they've needed to address the lineup midseason because they're so reliant on mixing and matching with a bunch of average players

They can go after impact hitting and still add pitching, albeit probably not at the Yamamoto level. The "silver lining" to missing out on all their biggest targets the past couple offseasons is that the long-term payroll picture is still wide open. Obviously you'd rather have Aaron Judge or Cody Bellinger right now than payroll room, but they can take swings at an Ohtani, Bellinger or Matt Chapman this winter while playing in the third or fourth tier of a deep free agent rotation class

Cory

4:16

What’s your playoff teams in the AL and NL as of today?

Anthony Franco

4:18

Current top five in the AL and still like Texas over Toronto. I'll stubbornly hang onto the Giants for one last week but they're running out of time to win a game. Give me the current division leaders, Philadelphia, the Cubs and San Francisco in the NL

Dano

4:18

In reference to the Grichuk situation, how many times can a player be placed on waivers by the same team in a season?

Anthony Franco

4:20

This is a good question. None of us are 100% sure on the answer, although Darragh and I were discussing it on Wednesday in response to Grichuk hitting waivers again

4:21

There's an unlimited number of times that you can outright a player to the minors, although that player has the right to test free agency on each occasion after the second time someone waives them (or if they have 3+ years of MLB service)

But to do what the Angels are doing with Grichuk -- waivers with no attempt to send him to the minors if he goes unclaimed -- is trickier

4:22

The way Darragh and I each read the rule is to say that you're allowed to do that once between the trade deadline and August 31, and then one time per week after that for the rest of the season

4:23

But it's a really complex rule that neither of us were 100% sure we were correct on, so we stayed away from putting that in the post. In practice, I'm not sure it matters a whole lot. I doubt the Angels would try a third time if Grichuk clears again

Jack

4:23

How much do you think Ohtani's market will be affected by his injury? What would have been your pre and post injury guess as to what he signs for? ( years and overall money.) And, any predictions where he'll land?

Anthony Franco

4:26

It matters obviously but I still expect him to easily beat the Judge record (if he prioritizes the guarantee). Judge had offers in the $400MM range. Even if Ohtani couldn't pitch again, he's at least a comparable hitter to Judge, two years younger, and can probably handle the outfield. Obviously, he'll take another shot at the two-way thing at some point

4:28

I'd probably project him around $440MM right now. Hard for me to see him getting half a billion, which could've been on the table a month ago, but he's still the clear #1 free agent since I've worked at MLBTR

The Giants have been my default guess at a destination

Tony

4:28

Thanks for taking the questions. My question is regarding your rankings of the playoff teams in the NL. I would go Braves, Phils, Dodgers, Brewers, Cubs/Dbacks. I think the pitching issues have knocked the Dodgers a notch below the Braves/Phils.

Anthony Franco

4:30

I still like the Dodgers over Philadelphia. The L.A. lineup is so good. If Mookie Betts leaving on crutches last night ends up affecting his availability for the playoffs, it's a different story. But right now, I'd go:

Atlanta
Dodgers
Phillies
Brewers
Cubs
D-Backs

Bob Loblaw

4:30

this winter, will DiPoto move Gilbert to STL for Donovan and Herrera?

Anthony Franco

4:30

I don't think that's enough for Seattle to move Gilbert

Ryan

4:31

Have the Blue Jays panicked to much as a front office this year? The Varsho trade, The Manoah situation, Bo going on IL and teading for DeJong, bring Bo back to quick. Imo they seemed quick to do a lot.

Anthony Franco

4:32

I don't think they've panicked necessarily. The DeJong trade was reactionary to the Bichette injury, sure, but they also wanted to add some right-handed balance and he'd been hitting lefties really well in St. Louis this year. He could've fit as a backup middle infielder in Toronto even if Bo were healthy

Obviously DeJong was terrible there and they cut him quickly, but it seemed like fine logic at the time

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