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Front Office Chat With Tim Dierkes
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Tim Dierkes
11:28
Let's goooooooo!!!  Steve is on vacation this week, so I'm manning the live chat.  It's been a while, but hopefully I'll shake off the rust as I go.
Cat_Herder
11:28
Thanks for the chat, Tim.  Think the ship has sailed on McGonigle and a "friendly" extension now that he's in the show?
KingTiger
11:29
Any information regarding a Kevin McGonigle contract extension?
Tim Dierkes
11:30
39 PA into his big league career, McGonigle absolutely looks like he belongs.  But I imagine the Tigers' interest in an extension would be roughly the same if he was struggling.
11:33
McGonigle is represented by Vayner Sports, the same agency that reps Bo Bichette.  Bichette's guy is Greg Genske, an agent I used to talk to back in the day when he was with The Legacy Agency.  I haven't talked to Greg in years - I think I remember chatting with him after the Yankees signed Sabathia!  But I bring that up to say, McGonigle is not a Boras client and I see no reason they'd be opposed to an extension.  Legacy did their fair share of extensions for players across the service spectrum.
11:34
I do not think the ship has sailed on an extension. A deal before McGonigle came up wouldn't have made sense, as it'd take away the PPI pick possibility for the Tigers.  I also think the Tigers putting him on the Opening Day roster should probably have engendered a little goodwill with the player and agent, even though it was also in the team's best interest to do so just in the name of winning.
who's on 1st
11:35
extensions for Emerson and Griffin seem an over pay. Lets say the teams went year to year. yrs 1-3=$1m, arb: 5/10/15. Even if the arb yrs were: 7/13/17(which are very reasonable projection). That would leaves $55m for Colts other 2 years of the 8 yr deal. Don't get started on Pitt spending all that $ given to them over the last several year on 1 guy.
Tim Dierkes
11:39
In this exercise, it'd be good to have an arbitration database (a life goal of mine for MLBTR), so that we could put some more accuracy on the range of potential arb outcomes for these guys.  That said your projections seem fine; Kyle Tucker made 33.5 mil.  On the higher end, Juan Soto as a Super Two made 79.6.  It'd be tough to make a good projection so far out, and a big factor is when you're going to call him up and whether he finishes top 2 in ROY to get a full year of service.  Lot of unknowns there.
11:41
But say Griffin signs that 9/140 deal we've been hearing about.  Say too we're aggressive about the arb projection and put him at 40 for those three years.  The Pirates would still be giving him something near $100 mil to buy out three free agent years - doesn't seem like a big discount, right?
11:42
First off, there's a binary aspect to this: you're either buying out FA years, or you're not.  So if that can't be done at a steep discount, at least you're still getting them when otherwise, Konnor would be visiting PNC as a Dodger during that time.
11:44
Second, if I have this right, the Pirates are trying to buy out Griffin's age 26-28 seasons.  He's the best prospect of the last decade or whatever; it's possible he could generate 20+ WAR during those three years.  We're talking about 2032-34.  If baseball doesn't have a salary cap, the price of prime-age Griffin, with zero decline years, would A) not be a thing any team can buy on the market because he'd do a Juan Soto deal and B) would cost over $50MM a year even if he's the next Bo Bichette or whatever.
11:45
That's my long-winded way of saying that I support the Pirates buying out three of Griffin's FA years for this total price.
NL West
11:45
Arizona is .500 after the first three series. If they can remain around .500 by the time Lawlar is back, are they legit Wild Card contenders? Or is this a mirage and they will be destroyed by their injuries by late May?
Tim Dierkes
11:49
I'm intrigued by Lawlar and what he may do this year, though I don't think we can really count on it as a game-changer for this team.  In just these ten games of going 5-5, the D'Backs playoff chances have lost 7.6%, down to 29.3% per FanGraphs.  Their rest of season winning percentage projection is indeed .500, so doing that until possibly the end of May - at which point we have no idea how a broken wrist will affect Lawlar's trajectory - would probably put the team further in the hole.
My way of saying that treading water until Lawlar returns doesn't seem good enough.
Brewer Fan
11:49
Does the 27th man for a double header count as an option being used? I know Henderson will be using one anyway at some point this year, but just curious if that is an exception to the option rules.
Tim Dierkes
11:49
I asked Ethan Hullihen, who knows this stuff really well.  He pointed me to a section in the CBA that makes it clear that this does not count as an option being used.
11:50
Since it's just us die-hards here on a Monday morning, I'll let you guys in on a little something.
11:51
Ethan rules at contract and payroll stuff, and we're going to be bringing his team payroll pages to Trade Rumors Front Office!  This will be part of your subscription.  Work is coming along nicely on this project.
Ethan's payroll pages are literally the most accurate ones in the public sphere.  I'm really excited to bring him into the fold for this.
Moving on!
CBA
11:51
Hi Tim, do you think that any new CBA might bring about some guardrails to keep owners from openly not trying to win? I find it hard to believe that the other owners appreciate that teams like the Rockies, Angels, Twins, Guardians to a lesser extent, not even tanking, but rather not even focused on baseball. The Rockies and Coors are referred to by Coloradans as "The Best Bar in Denver", not even a baseball team. Arte Moreno says that winning is not in the top five priorities of Angels fans. How can a league defend the integrity of their product with nonsense like this?
Tim Dierkes
11:54
If I worked in an MLB front office, I assume I'd be dedicating my life to trying to win a World Series with/for that team.  In that sense, some of these teams being laughingstocks and having inept management would be a good thing.  There are some sleeping giants out there.  The White Sox and Angels have mostly been punchlines in recent years, but they're in large markets.  With the right ownership and front office, these teams could be juggernauts.  If I was with the Tigers or Mariners I'd be good with the status quo.
Same goes if I was the owner of the Tigers or Mariners, I guess.
11:56
In terms of guardrails, the last CBA did add a key one.  From Baseball America: "Under the current draft lottery rules, teams that receive revenue sharing (e.g., the Rockies) can’t pick in the lottery in three consecutive years, while teams that pay into revenue sharing (e.g., the Nationals) can’t pick in the lottery in consecutive years."
11:58
Certainly I could see the MLBPA pushing for more stuff of this nature.  The Nationals were ineligible for the lottery and will be picking 11th this year.  That certainly didn't stop them from rebuilding or push them into spending on decent players.
Maz01
11:58
Hi Tim, do you feel that is sustainable the way the Whitesox are using Grant Taylor as an opener 3 of the last 4 days and will this continue?
Tim Dierkes
11:59
When I first saw this happening, my natural inclination was that it is not sustainable, and not necessarily good for his health.  But then I thought about how these are not really relief appearances, where the pitcher enters a given day not knowing if he's going to warm up or pitch.  I appreciate the White Sox trying something a bit different and unless there's real evidence that this is bad for Taylor, I'm good with it.
Blackout Gatling
12:00
Red Sox time… what is their best course of action. Players are underperforming, they really did not do much to improve the lineup, and the pitching staff was supposed to be a huge strength and it hasnt happened yet. Too early to panic? Are the fans shouting SELL THE TEAM in the right?
Tim Dierkes
12:01
In the course of nine games, this team has lost 16.6% off its playoff chances - 60.8 to 44.2%.  The Red Sox are now more likely to miss the playoffs than make them.
12:02
That said, 44% ain't bad if you ignore what it was a couple weeks ago.  Nor does it account for a potential deadline addition or two.  But it's April 6.  The avenues to improve the team are extremely limited.
12:03
Anthony, Contreras, Duran, Story, Durbin - all five are well under expectations, and it's not as if we should change our entire opinion of these guys after 38 PA.  That'd be ridiculous.  Anthony should be a 120 wRC+ bat from this day forward.
12:06
Ranger Suarez has made two starts, both pretty bad.  But I'm sure he's had two bad starts in a row before.
12:07
Sorry, I was trying to use B-Ref's Span Finder but got a bit lost.  Always a good tool to ask, "Has this player ever been this bad for this long before?"  I remember answering a lot of these types of questions on Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor.
Big Time
12:07
No need to panic yet for the Red Sox, right? Just a tough stretch to open the season?
Tim Dierkes
12:08
As a follow-up, I do actually think it's time to panic.
Not in the sense that anything can actually be done by the Red Sox, but if you're wondering if the team is now notably less likely to make the playoffs already, the answer is a resounding yes.
12:09
Will the Red Sox make the playoffs?
Yes (46.4% | 13 votes)
 
No (53.6% | 15 votes)
 
Total Votes: 28
Burgher Time
12:09
A Griffen extension at 9yr and $140m seems like a no-brainer when thinking about what his first 3 FA years will cost. Skenes was never going to sign a long term deal but what about locking up Bubba? Ashcraft should be cheap.
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