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Front Office Chat With Tim Dierkes
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Tim Dierkes
12:11
I'd be a bit more inclined to lock up Ashcraft, honestly.  Totally get the scouting love for Chandler, but he walked 12% of batters in Triple-A last year.  Some young pitchers work that out, but many do not.  Ashcraft may not have Chandler's ceiling but he does have better command.
12:13
We talk about how 39 PA doesn't really matter, and it doesn't.  But I see pitching slightly differently: how many SP throw 97 and can currently drop an 8 K, 0 BB outing on the Orioles?  It's kind of a short list.  All pitchers get hurt but if the numbers make sense, grabbing some FA years from Ashcraft seems like a good idea.
Josh E
12:13
Steve gets vacations?  What kind of ship is being run over there?  I kid of course, hopefully it is a good one for him.  My question:  Why is exit velocity a stat?  if you watch the game, you can tell how hard the ball is hit or not hit.  Same with launch angle.  I am by no means an expert but if you hit the ball hard enough, it will travel far enough to have the desired effect (which to me is getting on base and not necessarily touching them all at once).  I sure hope this question makes sense.  Thank you!
Tim Dierkes
12:16
I GUESS he earned one.  As far as exit velo, I'm not quite sure I could visually tell the difference between 100 mph and 108, but I think that matters a lot.  Nor can I measure launch angles with my eyes. These are also just good stat to measure regularly, because they normalize pretty quickly.  If your barrels per PA is through the roof that can tell you a lot more than hitting .300 for three weeks.  But nobody is saying we should stop measuring batting average, right?
Even on my kid's HS team they track "quality ABs."  Just on the basic idea that a screaming liner that gets caught as a better AB than a towering pop-up that somehow dropped for a hit.
Blackout Gattling
12:17
Random question, how many participants are typically in these chats? Are you happy with the turnouts?
Tim Dierkes
12:17
This one has 41 participants at the moment.  I think that's just fine.  I'
I'd only be concerned about the exact number if it was so low as to not generate enough questions to fill an hour.
12:18
Unfortunately in this case I have more than I can answer, so I don't see 44 (the new number) as a bad thing.
Magic and Bird
12:18
Michigan or UConn tonight?
Tim Dierkes
12:18
I just can't.  I went to Illinois
CBA
12:18
Thank you for the response! I guess I meant more "How can the league allow teams to just not care about being a baseball team" rather than anything regarding tanking. I just can't imagine that baseball team owners with literally zero interest in baseball are good for the game.
Tim Dierkes
12:19
I always say, there are no actual stewards of the game.  MLB and the commish just pretend to be.  He will say he's doing something for the good of the sport, and sometimes he actually is, but he will happily do tons of things that are certainly not for the good of the sport but make owners money.  Exhibit 1A: the proliferation of betting.
12:20
It'd be fascinating to somehow give a third party (fans basically or people who love the game with no stake in it), a real seat at the table and real power.  Ain't gonna happen though
Manfred doesn't LIKE the Angels not seeming to care a ton about winning, but that's more of a PR concern than him actually caring enough to, say, oust Arte Moreno over it.
About the App (not really a question)
12:21
Hey, the app is pretty damn good, but is there any way you could highlight new comments like on the site? Then everything would be just dandy! BTW, the Diamondbacks ARE gonna make the playoffs. Thanks for all your hard work, been reading for 20+ years. All the best from Stockholm, Sweden
Tim Dierkes
12:21
That is a pretty good idea.  If you haven't checked out the new Trade Rumors app please do so!  It's in the store for iPhone and really close for Android.
RIP Slap Hitters
12:21
Line drive slap hitters used to be a dime a dozen back in the 80s and 90s. They’ve gone the way of the dodo bird since. Does the Nico Hoerner extension give us hope for a return? Other that Luis Arraez and Hoerner I can’t think of many other lineup fixtures with this skill set.
Tim Dierkes
12:23
Honestly I think teams will take offense any way they can get it, and love contact hitters.  But say Nico is a 107 wRC+ guy who strikes out 9% of the time.  Would the Cubs trade that for a 120 guy who strikes out 25% of the time?  I think they would.
12:24
Hoerner definitely was an interesting extension case in that his value is primarily in his defense, and such players have historically not gotten 22 mil/year (or whatever it works out to with deferrals).  In fact one of the more famous cases of paying for defense was the Cubs' disastrous contract with Heyward.
To ATL
12:24
I remain unconvinced that Bryce Elder is a MLB-level starter. But he does seem to consistently soak up innings. Is that a valuable ... talent?
Tim Dierkes
12:27
I mean, a 50%+ groundball rate is a real MLB talent, and if you can pair it with an average K% and above average BB% (remains to be seen with him), you have something pretty solid.  I thought he was a 4.75 ERA guy coming into the season.  Two starts in you could say I'm mildly intrigued to see if there's more there.  Even at 150 IP of 4.50 ERA, yes, there's value in there, perhaps as much as 2 WAR worth.
Josh
12:27
Tim, why don't they let the big leaguers use aluminum bats for the home run derby
Tim Dierkes
12:29
Curious what the exit velo would be.  If Vlad Jr can hit a ball 120 with a wood bat, is it 140 with aluminum?  That could be dangerous out in the stands even at HR distance.  And forget those kids running around wearing T-Mobile shirts in the outfield.
12:30
Side note.  I think I've lost all interest in the MLB All-Star Game.  I say this as someone who took his son to three of them!  We had fun but it's just not something I want to watch, the game or the derby.  I think the thrill of the WBC just killed the ASG for me.
Brewer Fan
12:30
Kyle Harrison have ace upside?
Tim Dierkes
12:32
He's definitely on my "intrigued" list, along with Braxton Ashcraft, Jack Leiter, and others.  The Brewers are just so damn good at pitching development.  Give 'em a lefty throwing 95+ that scouts used to adore, a guy who already showed the ability to post league average MLB K and BB%s in 2024.
There are so few aces in the game that I hesitate to go that far.  Could there be 150 IP of sub-3.50 ERA ball in that arm though?  Yes.  Health permitting.
JK
12:32
Right now (not counting deferred payments) the contracts that go furthest into the future are Vlad and Soto, both signed through 2039. If the league is able to get a salary cap, would they need to wait to implement it until after those contracts are up? Or would the Mets just have a guy making $46M against a cap that they didn't plan for when signing him?
Tim Dierkes
12:34
I believe existing contracts would be grandfathered in somehow, and it may be one reason the Dodgers and a few others have gone big in recent years.  I assume a cap would be phased on gradually.
12:37
The tricky thing here is that MLB CBAs typically run five years, so there's limited room for phasing.  Also consider the environment that would be in place if a cap is to be implemented soon: the players will have been crushed by an epic lockout, likely the entire 2027 season and perhaps some of '28 lost.  The state of the game would likely be post-apocalyptic.
12:38
On that note, I have to run.  I'm sorry I couldn't get to more questions.  I'll be opening up my mailbag for this week soon.  At least with those I can take my time with each question!  Thanks for subscribing.
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