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Sam Robinson
3:01
Hey everyone, happy Friday. Let's get going ahead of Week 14
Roger
3:09
Hey Sam. It looks like Kyler Murray's done as a Cardinal. What would he fetch in a trade? Where do you think he'll go? Thanks.
Sam Robinson
3:09
Hi Roger, Murray will be 29 ahead of the 2026 season and has two original-ballot Pro Bowls on his resume. But he has not recaptured that form following his ACL tear. The past three seasons and a $36.8MM 2026 guarantee muddy the waters.

You'd have to think the Cards will aim for at least a Day 2 pick. Matt Ryan fetched a third from the Colts despite being tied to a then-big-ticket deal. Carson Wentz attracted a 1/3 combo on a $32MM-per-year deal (then a bigger number). Geno and Alex Smith landed a 3rd. That has to be the baseline here; Arizona paying some salary would help

Murray as the J.J. McCarthy competitor would be interesting, but does he fit O'Connell's offense? He didn't fit Drew Petzing's. The Jets come up as well, but they just missed on a dual-threat QB

The Jets, Raiders and Browns are first-round QB spots to watch (Cleveland using a similar system to Petzing's makes that unlikely, though). The Vikings and Jets make some sense, Minnesota slightly more since it won't use a first-rounder on a QB
Trooper-84
3:15
Do you see the Seahawks as serious Super Bowl contenders? Could they go the distance even without getting the 1 seed?
Sam Robinson
3:15
Trooper-84, I do. The 1 seed matters, and it would obviously help for Seattle's home-field advantage to come into play. Sam Darnold's big-game struggles do invite concern, to the point a "prove it" element exists here. But there is still a lot to like with Seattle.

Mike Macdonald's defense will keep the team in playoff games; they nearly beat L.A. despite four Darnold INTs. The Seahawks lead the NFL in DVOA and have wins over the Jags, Texans and Steelers (who were playing better at that point). The NFC is crowded, but issues are present with most of the contenders.

I'm confident Seattle's defense is good enough to reach the Super Bowl; Darnold delivering even B-minus-level play may be enough to help it get there.
Buckeye Bob
3:25
Will Myles Garrett's legacy ever change from being a legendary player on a team which did nothing with his talents?
Sam Robinson
3:25
Buckeye Bob, this season has burnished Garrett's legacy considerably. Breaking the sack record on a losing team would be wildly impressive, even though Strahan did this too (2001 Giants were 7-9). Garrett's 2025, though, has elevated him a level in terms of EDGE talents historically. He is 16 sacks away from the top 10 all time and 29 away from the top five (he could reach the top-five level by 31, which is staggering)

This isn't quite Joe Thomas. The Browns did make two playoff berths with Garrett, the second being a DPOY season. That matters for both parties, but I expect trade rumors to emerge again. Cleveland does not have a good path to contention right now, and Garrett has already gotten restless.

We have seen greats tied to mostly bad teams; Megatron and Thomas are immediate examples. DEs also aren't judged like QBs re: wins. Garrett's trade value won't go down after this season. If it's not next year, I expect him to be dealt to a Super Bowl contender at some point in his late prime
Mike Jones
3:37
Do you think the commanders will trade down in the first round to try and recoup some of their missing picks in later rounds? They've got to get younger and there's not much left on the roster from rough previous draft classes under previous team leadership.
Sam Robinson
3:37
Mike, this would be a wise move considering the Tunsil trade cost them their second- and fourth-round picks. Though, the Brian Robinson swap did net them an extra 6th. The age on this roster also concerns. You're right; a talent influx of Adam Peters-era draftees is necessary. McLaurin, Cosmi and Payne are about it for homegrown core players pre-Peters.

The team did trade down in Peters' first draft, sliding back in Round 2 (helping the Eagles land Cooper DeJean) and added extra Day 2 capital. One of the two second-rounders obtained (TE Ben Sinnott) has not cleared the 30% snap barrier yet. It is too early to know if they will move out of their first-round slot, as it is not yet set and the draft board still has months to shake out.

We can't really force a trade-down move, especially if a high-end defensive talent is available to Washington in Round 1. But this should certainly be an area Peters explores thoroughly due to the factors you mentioned.
Warrick
3:56
Trey Hendrickson's stock is probably down. How much do you think he'll get in free agency? I'm guessing the Bengals won't franchise him.
Sam Robinson
3:56
Warrick, the Bengals did go against the grain by tagging A.J. Green at 32 in 2020. The last non-kicker to be tagged north of 30: Wes Welker in 2012. So we can't totally rule that out; the Bengals can be stubborn. But I agree with you. A tag is unlikely after this injury-plagued season.

Hendrickson has no other recent injury concerns, so he should land a multiyear deal. No Joey Bosa-like "prove it" pact should be expected. Hendrickson hurt himself by taking the Bengals' one-year extension offer in 2023, as it delayed his free agency by a year. Considering what happened this season, that matters more.

Danielle Hunter's two Texans deals (2/49, 1/35.6) are notable comps, and the first being nearly fully guaranteed in free agency is a place to look at. Hendrickson pushed hard for a multiyear guarantee and, like most Bengals, failed.

Hendrickson should be able to land a deal between those two Hunter AAVs, and being on the open market helps. This injury and his age (31 today) create key variables
Unclemike1526
4:10
Some people on this board think Dennis Allen has been bad this year because of where the Bears rank in team defense stats. I say he deserves a medal for holding it together with duck tape and bailing wire and a lot of practice squad and special teams guys. The good news is his guys are starting to get healthy at the right time. What chance do you think the Bears have if they all get them all back except obviously Oyedingbo and Turner and lets face it neither one was very good anyway"?
Sam Robinson
4:10
Unclemike1526, I see both sides. The Bears were slightly better in points allowed and EPA/play last season (13th, 15th) than this year so far (25th, 18th). But as you noted, they have been without key players this season. Having Jaylon Johnson available for 2 games and Kyler Gordon for 3 obviously created a massive issue. Being 9-3 with the top two CBs out that long is impressive.

Allen played a key role in helping the Saints out a defensive mess in the late 2010s; Drew Brees' late-career Super Bowl window was partially Allen-driven. Kevin Byard and Nahshon Wright -- the latter spending most of last year on Minnesota's P-squad -- having 11 combined INTs jumps out on this year's defense, and Sweat has been slightly more productive than last season despite again lacking a viable sidekick rusher.

The CBs' returns should help the pass rush, but that remains a concern (23 sacks is near the bottom). The defense's performance in Philly encouraged. The arrow points up, but this won't suddenly be a top-tier unit
Sam Robinson
4:11
We'll call it there for today. Have a good weekend, everyone. Enjoy Week 14
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