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Sam Robinson
3:03
Hey everyone, hope you all are having good holiday weekends. Plenty of seeding intrigue in Week 17. Let's get going!
Division winners
3:13
Of the teams that can win their division this week who do you think will?
Sam Robinson
3:13
I expect the Steelers to rest some starters against the Browns, as the Packers should beat the Lamar-less Ravens and give Pittsburgh the division. Though, I'm obviously less confident there now that Jordan Love has been ruled out. Still, this just isn't Baltimore's year.

I think it will take until Week 18 for the NFC North to be decided, though George Kittle's injury gives the Bears a much better shot in SF. Ditto the NFC South, where the Panthers have a tough Seahawks assignment.

The AFC South and AFC West bring the most intrigue. I expect the Texans to fend off the Chargers. The Bolts' depleted tackle situation has not seen anything close to the Texans' pass rush. That should make enough of a difference to give the Broncos AFC West title T-shirts during their mini-bye and keep the Jags from clinching as well
Bowles over
3:20
If Tampa Bay is unable to overtake Carolina for the division is my job in jeopardy?
Sam Robinson
3:20
Hey Todd, all due respect to your post-New York resurgence, but yes. Losing six of the past seven, including to the Falcons and Saints, and then seeing a less talented Panthers team -- especially with the Bucs having some injured players back -- would be too much to overlook.

What does give me pause is the extension Bowles signed this summer. It runs through 2028. It is not unprecedented for teams to bail on HCs/GMs after extensions -- see the Cards/Titans 2022 developments -- but it would be odd for Tampa to show faith in Bowles only to bail less than a year later. But this second-half collapse may give them no choice.

After being elevated under strange circumstances -- Bruce Arians' mid-offseason exit -- Bowles has now had four years in a bad division. The Bucs are still stuck as a second-tier contender, and he should be considered more likely than not to be fired if Carolina takes the South
Sea Bird
3:26
Does Seattle win the west this week and lock up the number 1 seed?
Sam Robinson
3:26
Hey Sea Bird, I do expect the Hawks to win this week in Charlotte. But they would need losses from the Rams and 49ers to start celebrating. With the Rams facing the Falcons, that is highly unlikely to happen. The 49ers' home Bears matchup also gives me pause re: Seattle.

This week looks to set up a 2019-like season-ender between Seattle and San Francisco, as I think that will be for the 1 seed. The Bears can obviously throw a wrench in that, helping the Rams in the process. This NFC West race is among the best in the history of the 50-plus-year divisional setup.
Snowbelter
3:33
Does Josh Allen have any hope of a second straight MVP at this point?
Sam Robinson
3:33
Snowbelter, I think we lost Allen from the race in Cleveland. MVP is regularly narrative-driven, hence Lamar Jackson losing out to Allen last year despite winning first-team All-Pro honors. I thought that was the right call due to Josh having less talent around him, but the coast is pretty clear for Stafford this year.

Yes, the Rams have padded Stafford's stats with a slew of close-range Davante Adams TD passes, but a player with one original-ballot Pro Bowl chasing the Hall of Fame having the season he is at 37 should be enough. The odd trade drama in February adds a storyline wrinkle there too.

Is Allen the better player? Of course. And the Bills continue to run into post-Stefon Diggs WR trouble -- something that could really cost them in an AFC bracket when they'll have by far the best QB -- to force Allen into hero missions. But he'll probably have to settle for a Pro Bowl nod this year in terms of awards.
Roger
3:38
Happy holidays Sam. Shouldn't the Cardinals make a coaching change? Gannon is 15-34. I doubt many coaches have gotten a fourth year with such a terrible record. I know it's not all on him, but what has he done to keep the job?
Sam Robinson
3:38
Hey Roger, happy holidays to you as well. I think so, yes. The spree of close losses aside, a 1-11 stretch in a third season -- after having not made the playoffs over the previous two -- should be too tough to overcome.

The Cardinals have also regressed on defense, which is more damning to Gannon based on his background, this season despite having better personnel than in 2024. Robert Saleh reached Year 4 after three playoff-less seasons, but he had two 7-10 records on his resume and the Aaron Rodgers injury to create the mulligan case.

With the Cards effectively burying Kyler Murray this year, I don't think Gannon has the same excuse. It's not a lock Gannon goes due to being tied to Monti Ossenfort's rebuild -- the Cards gave their previous two GMs 10 years apiece -- but it probably should happen.
Cheesehead
3:42
Would/should the Packers consider replacing Matt LaFleur with Jeff Hafley if he gets major HC interest from other teams?
Sam Robinson
3:42
Hi Cheesehead, I think that would be a bit extreme even if LaFleur is wrapping up Year 7. He has two NFC title game berths and three byes -- granted two came in the two-bye era -- on his resume and six total playoff berths. The Packers improving in Year 1 of Jordan Love also bodes well for him.

The Packers have seen Hafley revitalize their defense, which burned them during much of Aaron Rodgers' tenure, but a proven HC that can call offensive plays is the top commodity in modern coaching. Hafley should be generating interest, though many DCs are worthy candidates this year (not making it a lock he lands a job), but it would be drastic to fire LaFleur to protect a DC.
Dan those lions
3:48
With the poor showing of the lions down the stretch has Campbell message been lost? What changes to his staff could be coming?
Sam Robinson
3:48
Dan those lions, the obvious change will be offensive coordinator. I thought the Lions reached with John Morton, and it was bizarre Dan Campbell did not conduct a thorough search to replace Ben Johnson. Next to no search occurred at all. Morton had one year of OC work (2017 Jets) on his resume, bouncing around after. Seeing his call sheet yanked midway through his first season points to an ouster.

I don't expect Campbell to fire two coordinators. He stuck with Aaron Glenn for four seasons, with three of them producing poor defensive numbers. This should see Kelvin Sheppard receive another chance, especially after Campbell has groomed the former LB for the job.

The Johnson-for-Morton switch indeed proved a big mistake. The Lions' OC search should be among the most interesting coaching storylines south of the HC level in 2026.
Buffalo winter blues
3:54
If Buffalo doesn't make a deep playoff run is coach Mcdermott done?
Sam Robinson
3:54
Buffalo winter blues, I see the case for this. I would point to the Broncos firing John Fox after the 2014 season, when they went one-and-done as Peyton Manning battled a quad injury, as evidence this COULD happen. McDermott has been there nine years now, and his defenses regularly underwhelm in the playoffs. To maximize Josh Allen's prime, seeing what's out there (or promoting Joe Brady) wouldn't be shocking.

But still, McDermott is now 8-for-9 in playoff berths. I think that buys him more time regardless of outcome. Now, if the Bills are blown out in the wild-card round -- obviously an unlikely scenario with their QB advantage -- then a better case could be made. The Bills having GM alignment, with Brandon Beane arriving months after McDermott in 2017, also helps.

But this is one of the NFL's most proven coaches. He would rise to the top of a crowded pool of defense-based candidates were the Bills to fire him.
Who Dat Fan
4:01
Benefitting from a 4th place schedule next year, but watching the Bucs and Falcons possibly changing staffs, who of the Panthers or Saints will be in a position to control the division for a few years?
Sam Robinson
4:01
The Bucs can't be ruled out. They do a great job of drafting and extending talent, and they still have the best QB in the division. Baker Mayfield will have his top three WRs, perhaps four if another Mike Evans deal happens, and a good (when healthy) O-line.

It is still a bit early on Tyler Shough and the Saints to proclaim them a surefire 2026 contender. The schedule part only pertains to three differing games from divisional foes due to the current format, limiting its impact. Kellen Moore has impressed as of late, and I'll be interested to see what they do in the offseason. They'll be in slightly better cap shape (though, the Derek Carr 2026 dead cap hit -- $36.7MM -- concerns).

Kind of the same answer for Carolina. Bryce Young is too inconsistent right now. The Panthers rank 27th on offense. It can be argued the Saints have more upward mobility based on Shough's ceiling being less known. But I still kind of like the Bucs moving forward, more so if Todd Bowles exits
Jags Run.
4:06
With the turnaround in Jacksonville this year can you see them making a deep run in the payoffs? Seems as though Lawrence has become more focused and less prone to miscues.
Sam Robinson
4:06
Jags Run, if this were a year with the Chiefs-Bills-Ravens bloc ruling over the conference, no. But we have uncertainty atop the conference, with the Broncos and Patriots carrying big questions with their strong records. In a conference that 3 QBs (Manning, Brady, Mahomes) have ruled since 2001, there is an opening for a surprise champion this season.

I can see the Jags winning playoff games. Coen has helped Lawrence minimize mistakes (12:0 TD-INT ratio over the past four games), and we still could see more from a disappointing Brian Thomas Jr. to provide upside.

I still lean toward Denver, Buffalo or Houston this year, but Jacksonville's Week 16 win over the Broncos obviously makes them a live underdog.
QB shuffle
4:13
With a few quarterbacks having some huge cap hits next year besides Murray being dumped by the cards who would be your surprise change?
Sam Robinson
4:13
QB shuffle, good question. Tua wouldn't count as a surprise now, but his $99.2MM dead money number needs to be circled. I can also see the Falcons joining the Vikings as a team that could bring in competition -- assuming Cousins is gone -- for a struggling young starter. Especially if a new staff arrives.

The Jets will drop Fields, and for the smoke emerging in the AFC North, I don't really see the Bengals or Ravens doing something so drastic as to move on from superstar QBs after frustrating seasons. Cincy is quite stubborn, and Baltimore's offense is built entirely around Lamar Jackson.

I will say I am monitoring how Burrow plays it this offseason. He has shown he will not sit tight with regards to pushes for roster upgrades. That will be a key storyline to follow.
Sam Houston
4:20
Is the Texans defense good enough to propel them to the super bowl despite the o-line trouble and other problems?
Sam Robinson
4:20
Sam Houston, I actually think it is. This formula typically does not work. QBs control Super Bowl paths. It has now been 25 years since the Ravens used Trent Dilfer to complement their historic defense. The Broncos did reach Super Bowl 50 with a broken-down Manning, however, 10 years ago. This can happen, but it takes a truly elite defense. I wouldn't quite put Houston on the 2015 Denver level there, but the playoffs were big in elevating that group. The Texans could have that kind of run in them.

That Denver O-line was also mediocre, but ESPN's win rate places Houston 31st and 32nd in pass and run blocking. That is a hard formula for a Super Bowl. But the Texans showed they can make life tough for the AFC favorites, getting into rock fights with the Broncos and Bills and scoring 36 on the Jags.

With no dominant AFC team, the Texans' defense -- No. 1 in scoring, yards, EPA per play -- is perhaps the top wild card in this bracket.
Brady's Raiders
4:26
With Tom Brady's part ownership it seems that he is more or less the defacto general manager. Will he influence the firing of Carroll? Who could be the next coach?
Sam Robinson
4:26
Brady's Raiders, absolutely. You saw how he exerted influence well beyond his minority owner title this year. Brady drove the firing of Tom Telesco -- GMs are almost never one-and-done -- and he aggressively led the HC pursuit of Ben Johnson and QB push for Matthew Stafford (while reportedly shying away from Sam Darnold). Brady is probably the lead decision-maker re: Carroll's future.

I would think, based on the Johnson pursuit, Brady will try again to find an offense-based coach (if Carroll is out). Joe Brady will be coveted, and they interviewed Vance Joseph last year. I'd think Brady, especially after Johnson and Liam Coen's success, would be a prime candidate. But the Raiders' dysfunction will work against them on the HC carousel.

Defensively, there are many options. Beyond Joseph, Robert Saleh is there as a former HC. Chris Shula and Jesse Minter are intriguing younger options as well.
Who Dat Fan
4:33
There's a long list IMHO of potential fires on Black Monday. Who do you think does get the ax, and is there a dark horse candidate that could be fired? (Zac Taylor?) If you have guesses on who takes those jobs, I would be interested in hearing those as well.
Sam Robinson
4:33
Who Dat Fan, Jonathan Gannon and Pete Carroll don't have great cases to present. Raheem Morris has now had nearly three Atlanta HC seasons (counting his 2020 interim year). He joins them on scorching-hot seats, though I'd say Morris has a slightly better chance of staying. As I mentioned above, Todd Bowles is running out of time. Mike McDaniel seems 60-40ish to stay, as offensive coaches are scarce on this carousel; he's a better alternative in all likelihood.

Kevin Stefanski is an interesting one. The Browns' past two years have been bad enough to override his two COY awards. Stefanski would be a strong candidate, having an offensive background and success in a place that is tough to find, to immediately land another HC gig.

Surprise? John Harbaugh comes to mind. The Ravens fall short in the playoffs annually and were far more disappointing this season. Zac Taylor should be on the hot seat, but the Bengals operate differently than most. His having 2 years left on his deal offers a complication.
Go fish
4:35
With the injury troubles the Patriots are having right now is it likely that Miami could pull of an upset?
Sam Robinson
4:35
Go fish, I wouldn't say likely. The Pats will be playing for the No. 1 seed, most likely, in Week 18. And the Dolphins starting Quinn Ewers probably gives them too steep a hill to climb in that game. If this game were in Miami -- where some Brady-era teams faltered late in the season -- rather than Foxborough, I would give them a good upset chance. Not so much on the road, though.
Who Dat Fan
4:41
Will the Bungles actually spend some money on an offensive line to protect Joe Burrow or will it be another piecemeal job and waste another year next year?
Sam Robinson
4:41
The Bengals certainly could use upgrades up front. I doubt they would give up on Dylan Fairchild after one season; he won that LG quickly in training camp. RG is unfilled for 2026. RT Amarius Mims probably gets another year, but he hasn't quite justified his first-round draft slot yet. The Bengals could save $14MM by cutting LT Orlando Brown Jr. and $4MM by releasing C Ted Karras.

Burrow will make his preferences known; he showed that with Higgins and Hendrickson this year. With $69MM-plus in cap space, I expect some OL upgrades. But defense is the top priority right now.
walterj23
4:49
Do you think Ty Simpson will still be there in order for the Steelers to draft him in the first round in next years draft or do you foresee him going much earlier than say 20 ?
Sam Robinson
4:49
Hi Walterj, we are a bit too far out for strong predictions there. That said, Simpson is not a lock to come out, and it could depend on Dante Moore's status. If one of those two joins likely entrant Fernando Mendoza in the draft and the other doesn't, the 2026 entrant figures to rise up the board due to the annual supply-and-demand issue at QB.

It would be fascinating to see two QBs pass on first-round status in the NIL era; the early rumor, but we have a ways to go. If Moore stays at Oregon, I can see Simpson requiring a trade-up for Pittsburgh. Though, I'll be diving into the draft much deeper once we get to Senior Bowl and Combine season.
1st Pick
4:54
In your opinion which team will win the battle for the first pick? Who would thing they then choose?
Sam Robinson
4:54
1st pick, this has become pretty interesting, hasn't it? The Raiders and Giants have a game that could make a decent case for a lottery. Two 2-13 teams deactivating players set to face off. The Giants are down Andrew Thomas, but the Raiders have countered by placing Brock Bowers on IR and scratching Maxx Crosby for the game. They appear intent on acquiring the No. 1 pick.

Even with the Chiefs probably set to deactivate more starters in Week 18 -- after the Mahomes-, Minshew-, Rice- and McDuffie-less Week 17 contest -- the Raiders will be home underdogs probably next week. Vegas seems like the bet here.

The Raiders would have the clearest path to solving their QB problem by obtaining the No. 1 pick, and by sitting their best two players against a comparably terrible Giants team, they appear going for it in a setup where a lottery doesn't seem on the horizon.
Who Dat Fan
4:57
Connor Byrne wrote in-depth about Marcus Freeman and NFL vacancies earlier. Your take on the Giants or Titans adding him?
Sam Robinson
4:57
I'm a bit hesitant on the college route. The transition has proven difficult, based on recent returns -- Kelly, Rhule, Meyer. Freeman also has a prime gig at Notre Dame. While interest is understandable -- especially in a year without slam-dunk HC candidates -- I don't expect him to leave South Bend this offseason
Sam Robinson
4:58
Wow, nearly two hours. Thanks for the questions, everyone. Enjoy Week 17 and have a happy New Year!
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