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Sam Robinson
4:02
Hey guys, offseason now in full swing. Let's get going!
Mount Olympus
4:11
Which teams other than Vegas are most likely to take a QB in Round 1?
Sam Robinson
4:11
Olympus, the outlook for the non-Mendoza QB ranks is foggy entering the Combine. While QBs are overdrafted due to positional value every year, it is very possible we have a one-QB first round for only the second time in 2014.

We have to leave open the possibility of pre-draft risers. Tyler Shough climbed the board last year, and countless others have done so during the workout process in recent NFL history. Ty Simpson is the current clubhouse leader to be the QB2 in this class. The Steelers not re-signing Rodgers makes them a candidate, but taking an iffy prospect at 21 reminds eerily of the Pickett move. Beyond that, it gets weird.

The Rams have two firsts and need to find a Stafford heir apparent, but this doesn't look like the year for it. They're a candidate still. The Cardinals finding a Murray trade partner and trading back into Round 1 is a scenario to monitor as well. Ditto Cleveland and the Jets in trade-up scenarios (a Jets trade-down move could be in play too from No. 16).
George Young's Ghost
4:19
While the Giants have a decent foundation, they still need draft capital.  What kind of haul of picks would they be able receive if they decided to deal Dexter Lawrence and/or Kayvon Thibodeux?  I understand they both had off years given their upside.  Thanks.
Sam Robinson
4:19
Thibodeaux is the more likely trade chip, and the Giants can try for a third-rounder. A host of contract-year edge players (Jaelan Phillips, Chase Young, Dante Fowler) brought thirds back. Yannick Ngakoue fetched third- and fifth-rounders in a contract year (2020). That may be the best the Giants can hope for there, as Thibodeaux is tied to a guaranteed $14.75MM on his fifth-year option. Having Thibodeaux raise his value before the deadline and then moving him should be an option too.

Trading a three-time Pro Bowler in Lawrence would be a way for the Giants to free up cap space (they're at a surprisingly low $6.9MM projected. But this is not a good year for the DT position in FA or the draft. Replacing Lawrence would be difficult.

Because it's a down year at those positions, I could see a team parting with a second-rounder or at least a package including two mid-round picks. Lawrence is tied to two nonguaranteed $18.5MM base salaries from 2026-27 and is only 28.
Horseshoe Henry
4:28
Can the Colts afford to re-sign Jones, tag Pierce and still make other moves in free agency?
Sam Robinson
4:28
Horseshoe Henry, it would be possible. The Colts have $35MM-plus in projected cap space. Restructuring the two DB deals they signed last year (Bynum, Ward, presuming the latter doesn't retire) can create more than $18MM in space. Bernhard Raimann is a restructure candidate too. Releasing Grover Stewart creates a need, but it frees up $12.25MM. That seems likely.

If the Colts really want to cut into their foundation, trading Michael Pittman Jr. would save $24MM. He is only going into an age-29 season, though the Colts may need to eat some of his $22MM salary to make a trade worthwhile.

Jones squeezed the Giants in 2023, and the Colts' well-known push to pay him oddly gives a player with his injury history leverage. A dicey negotiation ahead. A Pierce tag would cost more than $28MM. He would not fetch that AAV in free agency, but the Colts could certainly lose him if they don't overpay on the tag. A situation not too unlike the 2023 Giants' pre-free agency outlook looms.
walterj23
4:37
If you were the steelers would you wait for Rodgers , trade for Tagovailoa or Murray , or push hard for Malik Willis ?
Sam Robinson
4:37
Hey Walterj, asking me is maybe not too indicative of the actual Pittsburgh plan. I remain a Kyler Murray backer, though obviously a bit less so compared to earlier this decade. I would try to acquire him on the cheap. That said, I don't think they will do this. I think they will re-sign Rodgers and kick the can down the road.

I can see the logic in this, but the Aaron-McCarthy reunion would be a third straight stopgap year at QB for the franchise. If the Steelers re-sign Rodgers and pass on this meh QB draft class, there will be tremendous pressure to land a true long-term option in 2027. They will not be the only team facing that pressure, though.

I will be fascinated to see what team lands Murray. The Cardinals will need to move him by Day 5 of the league year or see $19.5MM of his 2027 salary guaranteed. The latter component makes a release possible. Would be a fun FA market to follow ahead of his age-29 season.
Etch
4:43
Hello! Will there be opportunities to trade down in the draft? It seems like Mendoza is the only elite qb prospect and many analysts are skeptical about teams wanting to move up for other positions. Thanks
Sam Robinson
4:43
Hi Etch, yes, there will be trade-down opportunities. This draft won't present as many as maybe 2024 did, when the Patriots passed on two big offers (from the Giants and Vikings) for the Drake Maye slot. QBs do drive that action, but other positions obviously generate trade interest as well.

Washington is without a second-round pick, while the Giants are without a third. Those could be two teams looking to slide down in the top 10. Coming up into that range could be for one of the top edge rushers (Bailey, Bain; assume Arvell Reese will be gone by then) or one of the WRs. Tetairoa McMillian drew extensive trade-up interest last year.

The Jets could also move down from No. 16 if they believe they can get the draft's second-best QB later in the first round. This isn't an overly exciting draft at QB, but there will be many moves as teams covet other areas.
Sam Robinson
4:57
Thanks for the questions, everyone. Think we will call it for today. Have a good weekend!
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