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Sam Robinson
2:03
Good afternoon, everyone. We are days away from free agency. Let's get started!
cmac1973
2:13
What will the Patriots do to improve their receiver room?
Sam Robinson
2:13
Cmac, the Diggs move will move a $26.5MM cap hit off their books but also creates an obvious need. Considering the Pats' relentless WR pursuit from 2024-25, it is interesting that we're back here again. With Boutte and Douglas still on rookie deals, it seems like another vet is needed.

The runway does seem clear for A.J. Brown, doesn't it? It would really cost the Eagles to move Brown now, and he is owed $29MM guaranteed for 2026. But the Pats would have a player (a rather mercurial one) familiar with Mike Vrabel who is nearly four years younger than Diggs. He would complement Maye's rookie deal well and is signed through 2029.

With the AFC likely to be stronger in 2026, the Patriots adding a wideout early in the draft may not be enough here. If they do not land Brown, ending up with one of the top WRs in free agency -- Pierce (will be overpriced), Doubs, Jennings, maybe Mike Evans -- will almost be mandatory
Steel City Steve
2:20
Aaron Rodgers could've re-signed by now if he wanted to keep playing. Wouldn't the Steelers be better off signing Malik Willis or drafting someone like Ty Simpson as a long-term QB answer than hoping Rodgers plays one more year?
Sam Robinson
2:20
Steel City Steve, I am a bit surprised Rodgers has received the red-carpet treatment two years running. The list of QBs to be a team's primary QB1 at 42 is Brady and 1998 Warren Moon. Rodgers was capable last year, but the Steelers waiting him out does not seem wise. Then again, the alternative gets a bit weird.

A host of teams are in this situation, and the Steelers doing what they normally do wins-wise will put them at a disadvantage re: the better 2027 QB class. I'm not sure Willis is the answer here, but I do think this team makes sense for Simpson.

Someone has to take that gamble, and it might as well be a team that has a need now and does not expect to have a good chance to be near the No. 1 pick in '27. QBs get talked up annually (already happening with Simpson), and while Pickett busted, this is a new staff eyeing Simpson. It's risky but logical, as it might not even require a trade-up. Curious to see if connections emerge
Roger
2:28
Sam, if you had to guess right now, who will be the Jets Week 1 starting QB? Thanks.
Sam Robinson
2:28
Hey Roger, this is a delicate situation. On one hand, it would behoove the Jets to be bad in 2026. That way, they secure potential Arch Manning/Dante Moore 2027 access. But Aaron Glenn's first year went so poorly he already has two coordinators and will be on the hot seat. It would seem the GM would want a stopgap (at best) while Glenn would want the best possible option.

The Jets played it smartly (odd to say given what happened) in 2017 by using Josh McCown as a stopgap and then drafting Darnold. I doubt Glenn would be inspired by a trade for Tanner McKee or Tyson Bagent or Jarrett Stidham. But that probably would, until the NFL implements a lottery, be the smartest play.

I think one of those options or a QB2-type FA works best long term, but appeasing Glenn and going Kyler or Tua feels more likely. But this is truly up in the air. Could go 10 different ways.
TD-Machine
2:35
Other than Maxx Crosby, which trade candidates do you think have the best chance of moving?
Sam Robinson
2:35
TD-Machine, I don't know if I'd do it due to the cost for the Eagles, but A.J. Brown is starting to seem realistic to be moved. This FA WR class has options, but no No. 1 looks to be in that group. A market should be there for a 29-year-old with six 1,000-yard seasons on his resume.

I'll say Tremaine Edmunds finds a trade landing spot as well. It would be interesting if the Bears can offload his full 2026 salary ($13.9MM), but he is somehow still 27 is an upper-crust LB with prime years left.

Guard Ben Powers (DEN just gave Palczewski a two-year deal) is also one to watch. The Broncos can't realistically have five eight-figure AAVs on their O-line, and Powers is the most logical chip.
JD
2:40
Sam can you explain the difference in what makes a player a restricted free agent and the two levels they can place on them?
Sam Robinson
2:40
Sure, JD. There are three RFA tiers. First-round tender, second-round tender and the lower-end/right-of-first-refusal number. They come in at $8MM, $5.77MM and $3.52MM this year.

The first-round tender is rare due to the cost, but it is a near-bulletproof way -- as we learned with the Pats and Malcolm Butler years ago -- to ensure an RFA stays. It requires a first-round pick to come back in the event of an unmatched offer sheet. The second-round tender (where the Cowboys are going with Aubrey) requires a second-rounder back for an unmatched offer sheet.

The common tender, which we saw used on LB Christian Elliss last year, does not bring any compensation for an unmatched offer. But the team has five days to match, which the Pats did with Elliss.
Windy City Heat
2:45
What's your take on the Moore trade? I love it for the Bears. All the best to DJ, but I'll take the 2nd rounder and the cap room. The Bears are still good at WR/TE.
Sam Robinson
2:45
I kind of like this trade for both sides. Moore had fallen out of favor in Chicago -- as you said, the Bears have pieces at WR/TE -- but reunites with Joe Brady in Buffalo. The Bills land a 29-year-old WR signed through 2029. With Josh Allen, Moore receives a QB upgrade and is the focal point of an offense again.

I'm a bit surprised Moore fetched a second-rounder -- even in a swap -- so it's a pretty good move for the Bears.

The team will be in the QB extension business come 2027 and will need lower-cost assets soon. The Bears will maybe need a supporting-cast WR for 2026, but getting off Moore's salary in his 20s was a smart move.
Jim
2:50
Do you believe the Falcons will try to get a WR2 or will they play Pitts on the outside more and bring in a true TE instead?
Sam Robinson
2:50
Hey Jim, I think they will need a true option at receiver. With the extensions coming for London and Robinson, they are a team to watch for an early-round option. A rookie-deal WR will complement London and Robinson's eventual extensions (and Pitts' tag). For a team with a rookie-contract QB, Atlanta is rather limited in cap space ($8MM).
D Jones
2:54
Do I get a deal done before Monday with the Colts? If not who is most likely to make me the best offer and for what terms? Will Colts match?
Sam Robinson
2:54
Danny, boy do you fall into good situations. Kirk Cousins tips his cap. You should probably do the Colts a solid and sign soon. That transition-tag number ($37.83MM) is eating into their cap space, and Pierce may leave as a result.

You shrewdly navigated your Giants FA journey three years ago, squeezing them for $40MM per year. Somehow, despite tearing your Achilles (after a 2023 ACL tear), you secured leverage again. Good on you.

The Vikings would be the team to monitor here, as they out-offered the Colts last year and want to have McCarthy competition. Jones would not be competition, though; he would be a replacement. Minnesota has a delicate situation to manage there. But they have to be considered the team to watch. I would still bet plenty Jones stays in Indy.
Cards Fan
2:59
It sure seems we are parting ways with Kyler, Who should we target in FA and will we take a pick in the dradt?
Sam Robinson
2:59
Cards Fan, the Jimmy Garoppolo noise is getting louder. Given the connection to Mike LaFleur, that kind of makes sense. But it's a pretty depressing situation. If the Cardinals do go for a draft option, it would seem they need to trade way up from No. 34. I'm betting Ty Simpson gets talked up due to the lack of options -- a near-annual QB tradition -- and will go in Round 1.

The Murray dead money makes Malik Willis a bit difficult to land. And tbh I don't love him as an option -- especially at the expected price. The Cardinals going with Jimmy G would give them a chance to do what the Jets might not have the stomach for: stealth tanking and waiting for a prime 2027 draftee.
Shedur
3:02
With the crowded QB room in Cleveland as it is what are my chances of winning the job back to start 2026?
Sam Robinson
3:02
Iffy. I don't exactly believe Deshaun Watson is a true candidate to start (not yet, at least), but this staff is inheriting Sanders. The Browns also are more than $17MM over the cap -- before another Watson restructure (wow, the 2027 dead money will be something) resolves that -- and they need maybe four new OL starters.

You have a better chance at starting in 2026 maybe than you should. I'll still say it's slightly less than a 50-50 shot for you.
DJ Clutch
3:08
With the Texans OL trades and cap situation who are their likely targets to fill out their OL?  It feels like they need at least two interior lineman and a tackle given Brown's injury status, what do you think?
Sam Robinson
3:08
DJ Clutch, they will need a center. And this is now a pretty decent year to need one. They are highly unlikely to be in the Linderbaum market, but Cade Mays would be more affordable. The Texans were linked to him a few weeks back. Tyler Biadasz would be a sensible midlevel signing. Connor McGovern might be too expensive. Might the Texans swing another trade -- Caserio is big on those for OLs -- and get Elgton Jenkins from the Packers?

Re-signing Ingram should be reasonable thanks to his meh Vikings tenure. But if they are not sold Blake Fisher will work out at RT (and with Howard now gone), taking a flier on Jonah Williams or Jawaan Taylor would be logical (while risky). Oddly, Jermaine Eluemunor (even at 31) might be the safest RT option available.

The Texans need both an early-round pick and at least one surefire FA starter for this unit.
Matt Staff
3:13
What kind of a deal should I expect to make with the Rams for this year and next?
Sam Robinson
3:13
Hey Matt, I really thought your HOF credentials were lacking until last year. You have proven me wrong. Good job on that MVP. You've secured your chance at another extension -- the rare FIFTH QB payday -- but there is not much precedent for what you want given your age.

Tom Brady and Drew Brees accepted below-market extensions at advanced ages, but you were linked to wanting $50MM per year in 2025. Save for the Packers' Aaron Rodgers deal, every QB to sign a $50MM-AAV extension has been under 31. I do expect a raise from your 4/160 terms, but it's possible the Rams have you compromise once again.

But something like three years, $165MM (or slightly more to overtake Lawrence/Love) would be keeping up with the market. The void years the Rams will deal with when you retire could create near-Watson-level dead money pain, though.
Houston over pay
3:19
What are your thoughts on what the Texans gave up for David Montgomery?
Sam Robinson
3:19
I liked Montgomery in Detroit, but he also had a prime setup with Gibbs, Ben Johnson (for two of those years) and a high-end O-line. I like him less in Houston, though the Texans did upgrade on what they had last year. Bears Montgomery was less impressive, and the Texans need to beef up their O-line immediately.

The Texans proceeded this way with Joe Mixon, but they didn't need to give up as much (seventh-rounder). Montgomery will be 29 this summer and has 1,477 career carries (ninth among active RBs). That's actually less wear and tear than Mixon had pre-2024.

But the Texans do not need to give Montgomery a new contract; he is signed through 2027 on his $9.1MM-per-year deal. And no guarantees are left on the deal. Reasonable trade return for a productive player, even if it's a short-term solution.
Jack B
3:23
Who should be the Ravens primary targets in FA, will we lose Linderbaum?
Sam Robinson
3:23
Jack B, Nikhil Mehta's Offseason Outlook piece did well to outline the needs Baltimore has. He views the O- and D-lines as the places in the most need of help. As for Linderbaum, he kind of has to hit the market now, right?

The Ravens re-signed Stanley at the 11th hour last year, but this is a second-contract-seeking player primed to reset his position's salary landscape.

I ranked a center -- a center! -- first in the FA top 50 this year. It will take maybe $22MM per year to retain Linderbaum, with a massive guarantee. The Ravens have made a big offer, but it seems like they will need to bid against competition next week. Never a good sign, but they're certainly not out of it.

But there are cheaper centers available. The Ravens are not usually a big-spending FA team; they may decide one of the available centers is more sensible to be able to afford other pieces.
Combine Warrior
3:26
Who are some of the standout Edge Rushers at the combine you think will still be around at the end of round 2 beginning of round 3? Asking for a friendly GM.
Sam Robinson
3:26
Combine Warrior, I'm going to have to politely defer on this one. I'll be diving into the draft's non-first-round options after this free agency blitz wraps. Spent a chunk of time analyzing this FA market for the top 50, but I look forward to seeing how the draft dominoes look once the dust settles with the veterans next week.
Tony the tiger
3:28
With Hendrickson more than likely gone in free agency is it possible the Bengals trade for Maxx Crosby?
Sam Robinson
3:28
Tony, I would seriously doubt that. The Bengals are not really known for that kind of aggression. So I would expect them to retool around their own recent first-round picks in Stewart and Murphy. Maybe re-signing Ossai too. But if they weren't willing to give Hendrickson post-Year 1 guarantees, I'd imagine they will aim lower in free agency.
Bolts Line
3:32
Who do you see the Chargers going after to help improve the protection for Herbert? Will it be mainly FA or draft?
Sam Robinson
3:32
I would hope they become a player for a free agent guard or center -- perhaps both; they have nearly $100MM in cap space -- but it doesn't sound like the Chargers are going to run wild in free agency. That's never been the Ravens' way, and Hortiz spent his career in Baltimore pre-2024.

The draft looks like the more logical avenue, but you have to think L.A. lands at least one interior O-line starter in free agency. In cutting Becton, seeing Bozeman retire and having Johnson a free agent, they almost have to use their cap space to add a decent veteran starter next week.
Sam Robinson
3:32
Thanks for the questions, everyone. We'll call it there for the day. Buckle up for free agency and have a good weekend!
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