Front Office NFL Chat
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Sam Robinson
5:04
Hey everyone, hope you're all having a good week. Let's get started!
J J McCarthy
5:10
If I lose the QB 2 battle will I be kept or is my time in Minnesota done? If I'm out who could pick me up to be their no. 2?
Sam Robinson
5:10
J.J., quick hook huh? Ten games and out underscores how teams are thinking in this NFL era compared to those in the pre-rookie-scale contract period. I do believe you would have gotten more time had this been a rebuilding situation. Being drafted by a team that went 14-3 (and apparently had some front office friction) was not good for your development.

That said, you not beating out this version of Wentz would obviously be concerning. I do think Wentz (if healthy) is a safer Murray backup for a Vikings team geared to compete for a playoff spot. You don't seem to have a future in Minnesota, but your value has cratered. Not sure even a late-Day 2 pick is feasible now.

The Vikes could preach a reset -- as the Jets did with Zach Wilson (before that fourth-play Rodgers Achilles tear) in 2023 -- or take the Colts route and shop a disappointing top-10 QB. With Murray on a one-year deal, though, keeping J.J. for now makes sense -- if only because of what's happened to his trade value.
Todd Monken
5:19
Could I honestly be thinking of trading Shedeur Sanders and keeping Taylen Green so Deshaun Watson doesn't feel to much pressure to perform up to his contract?
Sam Robinson
5:19
Hey Todd, I'm not sure you should be doing anything with regard to Watson pressure. That ship has sunk; I would be stunned if Watson finished this season as your starter. And best of luck with that $86MM-plus in dead money -- thanks to your boss' spree of restructures -- through 2028. Stefanski may have lost draft capital, but you're stuck with the dead money bill.

It is fairly clear the Browns do not think their 2027 QB1 is on the roster. The Browns' Garrett trade already pointed to an aim of landing a QB in a potentially deep class. That has to be the priority. If Watson is the gateway there, stomaching this setup makes sense. But I'll bet Sanders gets into the lineup early.

Sanders' trade value is not believed to be high, and Berry's Dillon Gabriel pick has not aged well. If a team offers an early-Day 3 pick for Sanders, you will probably accept. But the Watson announcement confirmed this is a play-out-the-string season before a high-stakes draft.
Eliot Wolf
5:25
If I offer christian Gonzalez a four year 140 million with 2 and 65 million guaranteed would that get it done? I heard somewhere he wants to be highest paid defensive player with an aav of 40+m.
Sam Robinson
5:25
Hey Eliot, good news on the latter front. You will not have to offer anything close to a defensive-record AAV to Gonzalez. Will Anderson Jr.'s place atop that list (at $50MM per year) will not change for a cornerback. I do believe 4/140 with $65MM guaranteed would do it.

Only one CB (Devon Witherspoon) secured more than $50MM guaranteed at signing. The post-Belichick Pats are paying players -- as their 2024 extension spree showed -- and you were aboard under Belichick when Gonzalez was drafted. With Witherspoon setting the market, this shouldn't be that complicated.

I'm surprised it has taken this long. I wonder if Gonzalez's camp is using his age (24; 1 1/2 years younger than Witherspoon) in these negotiations. Mid-20s CB years are valuable, and Gonzalez has an opportunity. But I can't see the Pats approaching $40MM AAV, especially when they have him signed through '27 via the fifth-year option
Tua T
5:33
Will I be the Falcons started this year or will Michael Penix pass me come October or before?
Sam Robinson
5:33
Tua, have got to say...stupendous job on your Dolphins extension. Securing that guarantee after a 17-start 2023 was crucial. The Dolphins smashed the Broncos' Russell Wilson dead money record to move the deal, but considering the concussion trouble you've had, shrewd negotiating on your part two summers ago.

As for your Falcons status, the fact that you haven't seized the job despite Penix not even being in this competition -- for the most part -- is odd. You are the more accurate passer in this historically rare southpaw-southpaw battle, and I had assumed you'd claim the job under Stefanski. But the way it's looking, I will say Penix makes the pass at some point early in the season.

I would say the stakes are high here, but you already prevailed with that $93MM guarantee at signing and an extra $54MM locking in last year, you are set. I expect the Falcons to be in the hotly contested QB market in 2027.
Stadiums
5:41
Could you ever see the Jets or Chargers building their own stadiums separate from the Giants/Rams?
Sam Robinson
5:41
Under the current ownership groups, probably not. We are now in Year 10 of the L.A. Chargers, and despite the market size, it is pretty easy to argue they rank 32nd in fan support. I don't think a separate stadium will solve that issue. Seeing as the Jets and Giants have shared a stadium for more than 40 years (and this is a better setup for the Jets than the Chargers have, as they are the Rams' tenants at SoFi), I don't see that changing in the foreseeable future.
Kodiak
5:49
At This point do you see any dark horse teams flying up the standings to challenge the expected division and conference leaders? The NFC East and North divisions look especially tight, but who had a losing record last season that will surprise us all?
Sam Robinson
5:49
Kodiak, the NFC North has an opportunity by virtue of playing the NFC South and AFC East (where Dolphins and Jets matchups should be favorable). I'm not guaranteeing anything, but I like where the Vikings are as a sleeper of sorts. They went 9-8 with a terrible QB situation and have a top-tier DC running things. The Lions' schedule lines up well. If they can get their safeties back by October-ish, I like where they are.

I'll exclude the Chiefs here because of their usual standing and will express some optimism in the Bengals and Bucs. Cincy threw everything it had into defensive upgrades. I don't love their O-line (nothing new there), but their bevy of investments on defense should be enough -- if Burrow is healthy...obviously a risk -- for a playoff berth.

Tampa has an underrated O-line, and the 2025 woes were largely because of injuries across the roster. I like Bain complementing Diaby, and I also liked the Josiah Trotter second-round addition at LB. Good Otton contract, too
TD-Machine
5:57
What do you think Arch Manning and his family are hoping for with how the draft order shakes out? Which team would he feel best about joining if he winds up going No. 1?
Sam Robinson
5:57
Hey TD-Machine, we do have some usual suspects in the expected 2027 QB derby. The Browns, Cardinals, Dolphins and Jets would not inspire confidence among a family that's been choosey. Before Eli Manning's famous power play, Peyton passed on a 1997 Jets path and returned for his senior season. I'm not sure Arch will have this kind of pull, but I can easily see him staying at Texas for more development (as money is not exactly an issue, even excluding NIL from the equation).

It just seems like it will be hard to outflank one of those teams with low-end reputations. If the Falcons somehow landed atop the board, I think that would intrigue: indoors, good skill players, a few nice OL pieces, and I'm still bullish on Stefanski (he hasn't had much at QB in years).

It's still too early here, as Arch will need to be in a power position -- he's not yet the consensus QB1 -- but the "will he stay in 2027?" is a storyline to monitor regarding potential NFL destinations.
Ghost of George Young
6:06
Last week, I asked about potential CBs that might become available next week.  What about decent WRs?  Would receivers like Cedric Tillman or Charlie Jones offer a potential upgrade on Odell Beckham Jr.?  Thanks!
Sam Robinson
6:06
The OBJ story is interesting for sure, but it would be unusual to keep a WR5 -- as I alluded to on the site earlier today -- that doesn't play special teams. Keeping a No. 4 for that purpose would be more reasonable.

Taking a flier on Tillman makes sense; he is a third-round pick who has had brutal QB situations. But his production has been uninspiring. Browns have struggled with R3 WRs in recent years.

I think the Broncos keep their top five, but it wouldn't hurt to call on Franklin or Mims. The Raiders may not keep 2025 fourth-rounder Don'te Thornton (4.30 speed).

I still foresee Slayton being traded at some point. He is highly unlikely to be on the 2027 roster, and the team signed a similar player in Mooney. Maybe OBJ inspires enough confidence they can move Slayton at the deadline? That's a best-case scenario, of course
Hard Knocks
6:14
Which division are you hoping Hard Knocks covers next year (and are you enjoying Seattle for this summer)?
Sam Robinson
6:14
Hard Knocks: Offseason is back! That Giants series was the best Hard Knocks in eons -- maybe ever. I haven't been in on many training camp Hard Knocks in a while, and I'm a bit behind on Seattle. But that's been interesting from what I've seen.

So many choices here. The NFC North will have Caleb Williams extension talks, maybe a Vikings QB search and more Dan Campbell. The AFC West has some high-profile leaders (Reid, Payton, Harbaugh), and I'd be curious to see Brady cameos given the varying reports of his responsibilities.

I think I'll say the NFC East. Seeing Howie Roseman trade processes, a Washington coaching search/Daniels extension talks, Jerry Jones doing things (and Will McClay-led draft prep) and the Harbaugh-Schoen-Aponte dynamic creates a bunch of good storylines.

The Giants taking a second crack at this to show a more buttoned-up approach would be fun, but any division will be a win; I had assumed this was a one-off after what happened two years ago.
Roger
6:21
Hi Sam. I've read some pretty bleak things about the Commanders OL. It isn't their fault Tunsil got hurt but I never understood releasing the center with no real backup plan. I hope Daniels doesn't get RG3'd out there.
Sam Robinson
6:21
Hey Roger, I agree with you on the center front. Even though Biadasz ran into a bad break in L.A., he landed the same 3/30 contract he got from the Commanders. Normally, street free agents have to take pay cuts after cap casualties. Showed a market was there.

I liked what the Bears did at C in drafting Logan Jones in Round 2 to develop behind Bradbury, but the Commanders had an uninspired plan. Allegretti needs to return from his calf injury soon, or a sixth-round pick (Matt Gulbin) or a player with 2 career offensive snaps (Julian Good-Jones) are the in-house options. Brunskill (ex-SF Peters guy) has over 1,000 C snaps. Is that a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option?

Cosmi is a good guard, and there is plenty invested in Conerly at RT. But we now have three positions carrying questionable starters. I don't like the setup there right now, and I do worry about Daniels in this offense.
Jack B
6:35
Who are some surprise cuts that teams will make come cut down day?
Sam Robinson
6:35
Hi Jack, we are in the NFL's third trade window of sorts. Several more deals should go down for players on the outside looking in by Sunday's deadline.

I mentioned Dont'e Thornton in Vegas; an intriguing speed player drafted under a previous coaching staff. Not sure Evan Neal is a surprise anymore, but I don't expect he or Jalin Hyatt to make the Giants' roster. DE Sam Williams in Dallas re-signed on a $2MM guarantee, but the team then added Von Miller. One to monitor. The Broncos also have several options at DL. 2025 third-rounder Sai'Vion Jones is on the bubble.

Keisean Nixon would qualify as a surprise cut for sure; as of last week, he was battling to keep his starting job. The Pack would save $5MM with a release there. The Colts would eat $10.8MM by cutting Richardson. Still a low-end trade to monitor. A lot of moving parts ahead of cutdown day, which is now two days earlier after being moved to Sunday this year.
Sam Robinson
6:36
We'll stop there for today. Thanks for the questions, everyone. Buckle up for a frenzied weekend of transactions
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