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Sam Robinson
4:00
Well, some big news hit late last night. Let's get started!
TD-Machine
4:10
Which HC has the strongest chance of being fired first this season?
Sam Robinson
4:10
Hey TD-Machine, I'm going to have to stick with Todd Bowles. The Bucs were not exactly looking good before Mayfield's injury last week. The second-chance HC is running out of excuses, and the upcoming Jalon Daniels (or perhaps Easton Stick/Brett Rypien, if the rookie UDFA proves overmatched) threatens to derail Tampa Bay's season.

Bowles' defense ranks 23rd in points allowed, though EPA per play is far more generous; the Bucs are sixth there. Bowles has fired two OCs (Leftwich, Grizzard) during his tenure, and pressure will be on to maximize Mayfield's extension soon. If the Bucs keep losing with Daniels at the controls, they could be buried -- even in the NFL's worst division.

This is Year 5 for Bowles as Tampa's HC. While his 2025 extension loomed as an issue -- due to guaranteed coaching contracts -- re: a January firing this year, Jason Licht's patience is probably wearing thin.

FWIW, TB has not fired an HC in-season since 1990 (Ray Perkins); that came before the Glazers' ownership tenure.
walterj23
4:22
Do you think the Steelers got enough for Joey Porter Jr ? I was kind of hoping for a bit more .
Sam Robinson
4:22
Hi Walterj, I thought a 2027 Day 2 pick would be available. But I don't think it's a bad return. A second-round pick for a player the team did not seem to have tremendous interest in extending is a good outcome.

It is a bit amusing the Steelers got more for Chase Claypool (the Porter pick) than they did for a much better player. The Cowboys also do not seem to have immediate extension plans, reminding of the Pickens trade. That component likely boosted Porter's trade value.

This 2028 second-rounder will help -- to some extent, at least -- Pittsburgh's yearslong quest to find a long-term QB. Parting with a Day 2 pick in 2027 or using the Dallas '28 second-rounder as part of a trade package to move up the board for a QB next year will certainly be in play. From that angle, I like how it played out for the Steelers.
Cowboys franchise tag
4:32
Would it make more sense for the Cowboys to tag Pickens a second time or Porter for the first time this offseason?
Sam Robinson
4:32
The Cowboys are quite comfortable using the tag. They have unholstered it seven times since 2018 (though, Dak Prescott's 2021 tag was procedural) and have had five players -- DeMarcus Lawrence, Prescott, Dalton Schultz, Tony Pollard, Pickens -- play on it in that span. Based on recent organizational history, it would seem Pickens or Porter will be tagged in 2027.

Financially, a Porter tag would be the better play. It is projected -- at around $23MM -- to cost around $10MM less than a second Pickens tag. That said, Pickens has (thus far) proven to be the better player. Despite entering the league a year earlier, the All-Pro WR is a year younger than Porter. He is a more valuable asset at this juncture.

The Cowboys finding a way to pay Pickens -- which won't be easy given Lamb's extension and Prescott's wildly player-friendly deal -- while tagging Porter to gather more intel on him would probably be the better play.
Duval County Doug
4:47
Is it safe to count the Jags as true Super Bowl contenders at this point?
Sam Robinson
4:47
Hey Doug, I was skeptical of the Jags last year. Wasn't too high on the Coen hire, and Gladstone's inexperience caught my eye. The jury is still out on their strange draft this year, but I have to say their sustained stretch since the Jakobi Meyers trade warrants respect. They should be viewed as a key player in the AFC.

Jacksonville is top five in EPA per play on offense and defense; Campanile will probably be a two-and-done at this rate (was surprised after last year's defensive turnaround he didn't draw more HC interest in January). Like Jesse Minter in L.A., Campanile also doesn't exactly have top-end talent. But it is working. Coen coaxing Lawrence's best stretch as a pro deserves respect, and they are doing it in spite of Brian Thomas Jr.'s disappearing act.

Highly intriguing Bengals game Sunday, and after that they somehow don't have a true road game again until November.
Bledsoe2Moulds
4:55
What's your level of concern with Drake Maye? All hell could break loose if he looks bad again on Sunday and the Bills smoke the Pats.
Sam Robinson
4:55
Good to see this strong Bills id back in the mix...yeah, the other side of the Jags' Week 3 showing got pretty ugly. Maye has accounted for one TD and seven turnovers (six INTs) so far. That is obviously alarming. I did view the Patriots as historic schedule beneficiaries last season, and it's certainly possible that is catching up to them. Still, I'm not necessarily panicking on Maye yet.

He showed bright flashes with a skeleton-crew skill-position corps as a rookie -- with an overmatched coaching staff -- and it is hard to completely dismiss and MVP2 season. We do have some evidence for fluky top-three MVP finishes, as Derek Carr's 2016 reminds, but Maye is more talented.

The Pats have some winnable games after this Bills tilt. If he still looks bad by midseason -- after games against the Jets, Raiders and Dolphins -- then some panic is justified.
Sam Robinson
5:00
Thanks for the questions, everyone. Got some AFC North action tonight. Have a good weekend!
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