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Sam Robinson
2:03
Hey everyone, let's get started!
GM firings
2:11
Do you think there will be more in-season GM firings? How many coaches could be let go before the end of the year?
Sam Robinson
2:11
The situation I have my eye on is New Orleans'. Gayle Benson issuing a dissatisfactory report card on the state of the union and then circling back to support Kellen Moore left Loomis hanging. I have said it is time here, as Loomis is the second-longest-tenured pure GM in NFL history.

Because he's been on the job so long (since the 2002 draft), I do find it a bit hard to believe Benson would go with an in-season firing. I do expect a change -- barring a major turnaround -- after the season, however.

I can see action in Tampa as well, but Jason Licht's successful GM tenure (13th season) probably protects him from an in-season ouster. Then again, the Falcons did fire a 13th-year GM (Thomas Dimitroff) in-season. I'll say Ballard is the only in-season firing this year. As for HCs...
Sam Robinson
2:20
Dan Quinn almost certainly will not make it to 2027, but who would they go to in the interim if they move on early? Anthony Lynn (RBs coach)? It's a pretty inexperienced coaching staff on the coordinator level. Obviously one to monitor, as it's about even money Quinn will be canned early. The reports of disagreements with the front office last season are important to note here too.

The Jets fired their HC and GM at separate points in 2024; the Colts could do the same with Steichen post-Ballard. New York's post-Robert Saleh hire, Aaron Glenn, is not working out. That is one to closely monitor, though Woody Johnson's praise for the former Jets CB is noteworthy re: allowing him to finish the season.

Todd Bowles' Bucs staff doesn't have a clear interim choice, but this is the other situation to follow. Tampa has a number of extensions on its payroll. If Mayfield returns and they can't climb back into the race by midseason or shortly thereafter, he could be let go before the year ends.
Roger
2:29
Sam, what do you think the Broncos do with Bo Nix's option in the off-season if he continues down this path? Thanks.
Sam Robinson
2:29
Hey Roger, pretty important question here. I think the ankle injury coupled with the Broncos' vicious early-season schedule buys Nix some time. So does his promise from 2024-25. Denver's rough stretch at QB post-Peyton Manning is worth remembering here too.

Far worse QBs have seen their options exercised. Mariota, Winston. The Dolphins exercised Tua's after his concussion-marred 2022 season (and concerning 2020-21 showings). I expect the Broncos to exercise Nix's option.

But...I'm much more hesitant on a 2027 extension after this start. The option will give Denver more time to evaluate here. That could be important. Nix may now be on the Tua/Stroud/Young timeline of needing a fourth season to prove he is worth a big-ticket extension. I think that's where I'll bet right now: option exercised, but no extension in 2027.
Bibs
2:36
Is the world just now realizing how overrated Justin Herbert has been?  If Dak or Jared Goff performed like Herbert, we would be hearing about how bad they suck, they can't win without a good cast blah, blah blah.    Somehow Herbert seems to get a pass no matter how bad he plays.
Sam Robinson
2:36
Hey Bibs, yes, this is one of the more shockingly bad seasons from a high-end QB talent in recent NFL history. Herbert criticism would be more aggressive if he played for a marquee team. The Chargers' relative anonymity (NFL-wise, at least) helps him here. I still believe in Herbert, whose ceiling looked higher than Prescott and Goff's. But wow has this McDaniel fit looked bad.

I don't think the Chargers have done enough to help him -- they were too conservative this offseason -- and his OL is consistently hurt or underwhelming. But this is the first year where he's taking (deservedly) real heat.

His aerial promise pre-Harbaugh and the playoff berths from 2024-25 give him some time. But the Bolts need more than a new OC in 2027. They need to be aggressive at multiple positions for outside help on offense. This is an unacceptable season for them.
Who Needs Draft Picks
2:45
The Rams are going to bring in Brian Thomas Jr. or Quentin Johnson, right?
Sam Robinson
2:45
We can shift to the much more discussed L.A. team. Yes, I expect them to make an addition. There is too much on the line for the Rams this year. This the regime that offered two firsts and a third for Brian Burns at the 2022 deadline, when the team was off to a bad start post-Super Bowl LVI. With Stafford at 38, Donald unretiring and Adams-Nacua likely in their final season together, help is needed soon.

BTJ is a good one to start with. The Jags will hold out for a Day 2 pick, but him being benched in Week 6...value is dropping. Johnston has a guaranteed option for 2027, but that's a candidate I overlooked last night when discussing this situation.

How about Keenan Allen here? He did an L.A.-or-retirement crusade in 2025 but amended it this year. He's 34 on a team now in transition and on a vet-minimum base salary. A short-term fix who could complement Adams and Nacua in the second half.
Ghost of George Young
2:53
Happy Friday, Sam!   What is a realistic acquisition cost for Quentin Nelson, if the Colts decide to move on?  Also, what about DeForest Buckner?
Sam Robinson
2:53
Back at you! I'm a big Nelson fan. Think he's actually been underappreciated. This is a future Hall of Fame guard who rarely misses time in an age-30 season. It's a contract year, same as Buckner, but a rare impact guard rental opportunity. Fascinating trade market.

Nelson is on a $16MM base salary; by the deadline, an acquiring team will need to pay about $8MM. I wonder if the Colts could pry a second-round pick from someone, though again, we are talking about a guard. But this is one of the NFL's best players. I'd say they shoot for a second; a third and a Day 3 choice at the very least. The acquiring team has a franchise tag to use if it chooses as well.

Less for Buckner, who is two years older and has had recent injury issues. A good player still, but I don't think the Colts will get a second here. $13MM base, so an acquiring team would pay about $6.5MM at the deadline. He's off to a good start, though (four sacks). Shooting for a third is not crazy, especially if he keeps up this pace.
walterj23
3:00
Once again for the third year in a row the Steelers need a good WR . Which WR are available  that wont cost an arm and a leg ?
Sam Robinson
3:00
Hey Walterj, kind of a weird situation since they added Bernard and Pittman. The latter is expected back as soon as he's eligible. I'm not sure this is a front-line need, for a change, especially if Bernard keeps ascending. But this is a team with a soon-to-be 43-year-old QB and cornerstone defenders in their 30s. They will buy, even if it's not at WR.

To answer your question, I think Jauan Jennings and Josh Palmer would be low-cost options. (The 49ers should probably be ready to reacquire Jennings, though, as they are now down their top SIX wideouts.) Ditto Keenan Allen and Calvin Ridley. Chris Godwin is maybe one to monitor, but he is a high base salary.

I doubt the Browns would trade Jeudy to the Steelers; they definitely won't if they stay in contention. But he has come up often in rumors. And Cleveland did trade in-division last year (Flacco).
Cheesehead in CA
3:06
Can the Packers bring Jonathan Taylor back to Wisconsin?  Would a 2027 third and 2028 second get it done?
Sam Robinson
3:06
Hey Cheesehead, I think that would get it done. McCaffrey went for a 2/3/4/5 package coming off injury-marred 2020 and '21 seasons. He was also a more dynamic player than Taylor (and was younger and fresher at the time than the Colts RB currently is).

Taylor is just 27 and has been healthy since injury issues a couple years ago, but he's on 1,673 carries (sixth-most among active RBs). He's also on a $22MM-per-year deal. As I mentioned Thursday, Taylor's contract has an out since his 2027 salary doesn't lock in until Feb. 19. Though, a $15MM base salary for a back of this caliber is not a dealbreaker by any means.

The Packers would seemingly only entertain this if Jacobs' situation deteriorates into an actual suspension (without pay this time). If that happens, they should be considered a clear RB suitor. That would be a fun storyline given Taylor's dominance with the Badgers.
South Florida Steve
3:10
The Dolphins should be sellers at the deadline, but do they have many guys left that would bring a strong return?
Sam Robinson
3:10
Absolutely sellers. But good point re: roster talent. They just extended Aaron Brewer and Jordyn Brooks. Sieler said he wants to stay, but he should be considered a trade chip. This regime has no ties to him. This roster, especially with Achane out, rivals the 2019 Miami team. Teams will be looking elsewhere for help. The rare seller without much to sell.
Arch Mehnning
3:16
Regarding Nix and the 2024 QB draft class, how would you rank that group two years later? Daniels had the edge at first, but now it looks like Maye or Williams for the top spot. I'll take Williams.
Sam Robinson
3:16
I don't think Nix's shaky start changes my placement of him. I still rank him fourth in the class, despite some promising Penix play this season.

I think I will go Maye, Williams, Daniels, Nix, Penix, McCarthy. This debate could be a fun one for many years. Even with the Pats' historically easy schedule last season, Maye leading the league in QBR (to Williams' 16th-place finish) and finishing second in MVP voting was enough to give him the early edge. But Williams absolutely could overtake him.

The Bears and Pats have their guys, who are clear $60MM-plus-AAV candidates in 2027. The Broncos and Commanders need to see some more, though Daniels' situation is far less favorable than Nix's, making the latter's early-season form concerning.
RoxTalks
3:22
Who’s your pick for the World Series with Game 1 tonight??
Sam Robinson
3:22
Small-market World Series! As a fan of a small-market team, this will be fun. We certainly still need a salary cap (like, you know, every other major American sport has), but it will be cool to see two well-run organizations go at it for the title.

I'll say Brewers in 7. Misiorowski in this spot will be intriguing.
TD-Machine
3:29
Which team is the best candidate for a splashy trade addition?
Sam Robinson
3:29
Hey TD-Machine, gotta include the Cowboys and Rams for obvious reasons. I think the Lions need to be monitored because of the opportunity they have, the defensive issues they've run into and how competitive the NFC North is.

Brandon Beane tried hard to land a WR at last year's deadline. The Bills need to focus on defense this year, and I have to think they'll be aggressive. Allen is 30, and their pattern of playoff underachievement has reached a tipping point.

If the 49ers keep losing guys, they have to be ready to bring in reinforcements. Their success and agonizing finishes -- coupled with their volume of 30-something stars -- points to action. It might be now or never for SF.
RoxTalks
3:29
Booooo, no salary cap booooooo!
Sam Robinson
3:29
Agree to disagree! Thanks for reading nonetheless!
Sam Robinson
3:30
Good extended chat today as the trade deadline approaches. Thanks for the questions, everyone. Have a good weekend!
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