Hoops Rumors Live Chat: 7/30/26
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ARTHUR HILL
11:00
Welcome to this week's chat. We'll start with a question about Jalen Duren and the Pistons.
theBigLip
11:00
What’s your guess on the Duren final contract? I’m thinking $35M x 5.
ARTHUR HILL
11:07
Duren might be fortunate to get $35MM per year considering that the Pistons hold all the leverage in negotiations. They've made it clear that they aren't interested in a sign-and-trade, and there's not another team that can make an offer that Detroit wouldn't quickly match. If that winds up being the average annual value of his new deal, I don't it will be for five years. Duren and his representatives believe he's worth much more, and they'll want to test the market again as soon as they can. Something around $100MM to $110MM over three seasons seems like a reasonable compromise, maybe with a fourth-year player option thrown in.
Hoopsfan
11:07
Are teams like the Rockets more hesitant to hand out max-rookie extensions because of the second apron? If so, will Houston wait until next offseason to given Amen Thompson an extension?
ARTHUR HILL
11:16
Rafael Stone has done a masterful job with rookie-scale extensions, getting Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith and Tari Eason to accept team-friendly deals, with Eason's contract considered among the best bargains of the summer. Negotiations with Thompson may be more difficult with so many observers predicting future stardom for the 23-year-old wing. Thompson will want to be paid accordingly, but the alternative is dealing with restricted free agency next summer, and we've seen how little leverage players have in that situation. I think they'll get a below-max agreement done before the season starts, but negotiations could go right up to the October deadline.
JD
11:16
Everyone seems to be assuming Philadelphia will be Lebron's last team but he really only committed to one year. What are the odds he plays for another team before retiring?
ARTHUR HILL
11:21
LeBron called this his "last decision," but the player option in his new contract leaves him with an easy out if things don't go well in Philadelphia. The idea of playing on a veteran's minimum deal may become less appealing if Joel Embiid winds up missing most of the season or if all his star teammates aren't willing to share the ball. Philly fans are notoriously fickle, and there's a chance LeBron could get blamed if the season doesn't turn out well. As long as the Sixers keep winning, he'll be happy in his new home, but if not, we could see a repeat of the LeBron sweepstakes next summer.
Unclemike1526
11:22
I'm not sure I completely understand the Bulls position here. OK so they're like a million under the Cap line and like 40 something million? under the first tax line. So what exactly is stopping them from making offers for guys like Watson and Mathurin especially when they have 3 tradeable pieces in Okoro, Smith and Jones? Why can't they put in offers for those guys and still trade the other guys and dip below again? I know nothing about the NBA rules system but this seems like a slam dunk of things they should be doing. Still trying to wrap my head around the Powell signing too. Thanks
ARTHUR HILL
11:31
The Bulls have plenty of financial flexibility to make an aggressive offer for either one of those restricted free agents. They're about $37.4MM away from the tax line and $43.7MM below their first-apron hard cap. And as you point out, they also have low-cost contracts to include in the deal without disrupting the roster. I would be especially interested in Mathurin if I were running the team. He's a potential long-term solution at shooting guard who already has plenty of big-game experience. It seems like the Powell signing was made with an eye on the trade deadline, as the Bulls are hoping to flip him to a contender in exchange for future assets. They got him at a relatively low price, but it still feels like they should have been focused on finding younger players while they're still in a strong financial position.
Cale
11:31
Thoughts on the Heat's outlook after missing on LBJ? The roster looks pretty mediocre outside of Bam and Giannis.
ARTHUR HILL
11:38
The Giannis deal probably didn't work out well for him or the Bucks. They kept him well past the peak of his trade value, and he wound up with a Miami team that doesn't feel like a contender in an upgraded Eastern Conference. Giannis and Bam need to be surrounded by shooters, and there aren't enough of them in Miami. Free agents like DeMar DeRozan or Bradley Beal wouldn't really solve that problem, and it doesn't seem likely that Dallas will make Klay Thompson available. The Heat probably aren't going to be much better than the Bucks were in their post-championship years.
bill laimbeer
11:38
are the pistons seriously done with acquiring players this offseason??  i know duren's deal will eventually get done, but they look like they are still woefully short in playmaking/scoring.  at this point, bradley beal or derozan couldn't hurt, could they?
ARTHUR HILL
11:45
DeRozan wouldn't be a bad addition, even if he's only a short-term solution. He could replace the scoring they lost in Tobias Harris, and he's still durable as he nears his 37th birthday. I'm not sold on Beal ever being effective again. Even though he's four years younger than DeRozan, it feels like age and injuries have already caught up to him. The failure to add another scorer or playmaker to help Cade Cunningham was a serious misfire this summer. If this is the Pistons' roster heading into the season, it's hard to see them grabbing the No. 1 seed again in a much better Eastern Conference.
Just Curious
11:45
I think the lottery reform is great. We should no longer have to endure a race to the bottom by tanking teams. With the flattening of odds though, there is a bigger drop off in pick value from a team just missing the playoffs, to a pick just outside the lottery. Do you think there could be teams that decide in April they would rather be the 10th worst team than to try for the playoffs?
ARTHUR HILL
11:50
That's definitely a concern for the marginal play-in teams. Why fight for the ninth or 10th spot and an almost-certain first-round exit at best when you have a decent chance at landing a high lottery pick? The quality of the draft will factor into those decisions, of course, and there's less incentive with a projected weaker draft class in 2027 than there would have been this year. But eventually there are going to be accusations of teams tanking games in March and April to avoid the play-in. It's a different type of tanking, but it might be even more damaging to the league. I don't think the new lottery system is going to be well received, and I expect more changes in the next CBA.
Blazer fan
11:51
What can Portland do about its glut of guards and its need for forwards?
ARTHUR HILL
11:59
The Blazers don't seem to have a sense of urgency to break up their crowded backcourt, so you might see a lot of three-guard lineups early in the season. It won't be easy to find enough minutes for Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson and Ja Morant. That's what makes the Morant deal so baffling. He'll be their highest-paid player for the next two seasons and may not be a regular part of the rotation. I don't see him handling that well as he tries to return to stardom with a new franchise, and it could result in a big headache for new coach Micah Nori. The situation may get worked out by the trade deadline, as Holiday in particular will be in demand, but somebody is going to be unhappy with their role for a few months.
Spencer Jones
11:59
Did the Nuggets make the right decision matching OKC's offer for me despite the tax and apron penalties?
ARTHUR HILL
12:07
Denver's current projected tax bill rose from $36MM to $68MM with the decision to match the Thunder's offer sheet. That's a lot to spend for Jones' modest contributions, and it doesn't seem like a wise investment unless the Nuggets are planning to unload salary elsewhere. Under the circumstances, I think I would have let him go to OKC and used that money to help cover the cost of re-signing Peyton Watson, who should be a bigger priority. I know teams hate to give up assets with no return, but it feels like losing Jones would be more acceptable than whatever moves Denver will have to make to ease the cost of keeping him. Or maybe the Kroenkes have finally decided to spend big to give Nikola Jokic another shot at a title and are willing to pay whatever tax bill that produces.
theBigLip
12:07
Is it possible for the Pistons to execute a Watson sign/trade without giving up Holland?
ARTHUR HILL
12:16
The Pistons still view Holland as a valuable asset because of his defensive skills, and it's understandable that they would want to keep him out of a deal. However, the Nuggets would surely ask for him, and Detroit doesn't have many alternatives for matching salary. John Collins and Isaiah Joe are probably out since they just joined the team, so realistically that leaves Duncan Robinson ($16MM) and Kevin Huerter ($9.5MM) as the main trade assets, which the other teams interested in Watson can easily top. Holland changes the equation, and I think the Pistons will have be willing to part with him to get a deal done.
Thanks for all the great questions. We'll talk again next week.
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