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Jan 25, 2021 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:00
Hello, 2021 Baseball Chatters! Been a while since we've engaged here, but with all the player movement recently, and the fact that we're a couple week away from camps opening, figured now is the time!
12:02
Any/all fantasy questions taken -- prospect lists, either of our BaseballHQ publications, real-life player movement; fantasy keeper lists/trades, pandemic fallout, etc, etc. Great to have you all back here; let's go!
PriceIsRight
12:08
As I prepare for my MLB auction draft, I continue to be perplexed by the actual draft, the nominating and the bidding. I finally won last year, so I must have done something right, but I'm here looking for greater surety......In the (approximately) first third of the auction, how does one know whether or not to bid enough to secure a good player, if there's another player one covets more still un-drafted? ...If one wins the auction for the first player, one can't afford the second....if one forgoes the first player, the second often becomes more expensive because they're the last really good player at that position...FYI, The same dilemma arises in the second third of the auction...
Brent Hershey
12:08
Ha ... yeah, that's the whole dilemma (and many say, extra excitement) of auctions. The fact that you get a shot at every player is what makes it different from a straight draft. This might be basic, but many auction players go into auctions with dollar values assigned to every player, which give a rough guideline of what YOU think each player is "worth". The key, though, from my perspective, is to not be beholden to those strict figures, but to give yourself some flexibility. Having to decide 'on the fly' whether a player who's bidding has stopped at far below his value is a better 'buy' than another player at the same position you might like better (but have to pay more) is part of the process. I'd say it sounds like you navigated it well last year ... but also remember that the draft or auction is usually just the start of your team ... in-season management is important also. Good luck, and remember to have fun!
WillinTO
12:14
I have a rebuilding team in a keeper league.  How would you rank Jeffers, Torrens, Mejia and Sisco for performance in 2022 and beyond?
Brent Hershey
12:14
Ahh, catchers! For 2021, we have all of these rated right about the same (and none of them really high). I'd probably go Mejia, Jeffers, Sisco, Torres for this year. Long-term ... probably about the same. I would say that seems like Mejia/Jeffers are on a higher tier than the other 2. Questions about Mejia b/c he was the highest rated of these four in the minors but never developed ... but on the other hand, going to TAM, could be a positive change of scenery.
Guest
12:16
Are we going to see another big splash for the Mets now that some of their targets (Springer, Hand, etc) are off the board?
Brent Hershey
12:16
I would doubt it, at this point in the offseason -- especially knowing that they will likely want to be in the Lindor re-signing mode by the end of the season. But if they are in the race come the trade deadline, I'd fully expect them to be aggressive buyers. What a turnaround that new ownership has done as far as philosophy. NL East could be tons o' fun to watch over next handful of years.
Guest
12:18
In Dynasty League, trying to get Yelich. Is Gonsolin and Conforto too much?
Brent Hershey
12:18
I don't think so ... Yelich the best player in that deal, and I def like Gonsolin as an underrated fantasy player in 2021 and beyond, and Conforto also. I don't think it's a lopsided offer because of that -- but I do think that despite 2020 Yelich is still one of the game's best, and I want those guys on my fantasy squads. Good luck
Shep
12:24
Feels like Nate Pearson never makes it as a full time starter. Tell me I'm wrong.
Brent Hershey
12:24
Well, from a stuff perspective, you're wrong (lol). He's got the devastating two pitches (trip-digit fastball; killer slider) and the curve and/or change-up could get to league average. He's got the build to take on innings, and control/command had been improving. Gonna come down to health for me -- and that's where I certainly can see your concern (assuming that's your viewpoint). The fact that 2020 only added to his injury history, rather than abated it, is certainly relevant. Personally, I'm still split on the matter, so I'm not jumping him up in rankings to acquire right now.
Guest
12:28
How do you think Taillon will do in Yankee Stadium?
Brent Hershey
12:28
It's a tough assignment for sure, esp with that short RF porch. He has been a 50%+ ground-baller in the past, so that's a positive if it keeps up. But will it? In general, I still find him incredibly risky as 2x Tommy Johnner. There's just not a convincing body of work (other 2xers) that say he'll be his same 'ol self once he hits the mound again. Maybe he will, but maybe not. Not a huge factor in my SP ranks for 2021.
Robert B
12:35
Based on the information we have today, where should set our expectations for MLB starting pitchers innings pitched in 2021. Let’s assume a full 162 games or at least a substantially longer season than the shortened 2020. What is a reasonable bump in innings for a pitcher from 2020 to 2021?
Brent Hershey
12:35
This should be the story we all are talking about, especially w/ its fantasy implications -- how the short season and IP totals are affecting 2021 SP values. And maybe I've just not seen it, but get the sense that it's just 'rank the ol' SP pretty much as normal.' Seems to me that the # of 200+ IP guys will continue to decrease at least for 2021. And while I realize it does that for everyone — so in relative terms AFA drafting value maybe it's not a big deal — seems like it should still be a factor.
But back to the question ... seems like the young guys, some of which are still trying to ascend to that 180-200 IP level, are the real victims here, in losing out on a full season to take that next step (wherever they are on the ladder). And in most cases I think the teams will protect those arms, and not push them more than, what, maybe 60-80 IP beyond their 2020 total? The traditional "horses" I think will still be able get within 20-30 innings of their normal workload, if not closer. But something to watch
Dean
12:40
Hi Ray. I'm trying to round out my keepers for one of my longtime leagues (we're moving to OBP, QS and Sv+Hld this year). I currently have three ace pitchers (deGrom, Buehler and Nola) but I'm considering moving Nola for a bat. I'm looking at E. Jimenez and Albies in potential deals. Is it worth moving Nola for hitters of that caliber?
Brent Hershey
12:40
Brent here, but no problem! That's quite a trio of starters, but I'd agree that if you're looking to move one, Nola would be it. All depends on your league depth, and who's available to be drafted. You might find that keeping Nola and having those 3 ace-ish starters put you at such a good place with pitching that it's not worth giving up -- assuming you can acquire worthy bats in the draft. But if you do deal Nola, I'd def prefer Jimenez over Albies (who I like a ton but not enough to trade Nola for). Thats' the type of young power bat I'd look for.
Robby
12:45
My league is moving to Sv+Hlds this year, and I've been digging through the Forecaster and website for highly skilled relievers to target. What is an ideal draft strategy for leagues with this category? Do you recommend grabbing a reliable closer and loading up on high-skilled, high-leverage arms late in the draft? Thanks
Brent Hershey
12:45
My hunch will be that b/c of the number of unsettled bullpens (closer roles) heading into 2021, that the lack of those "reliable closers" (an oxymoron in many cases, in fact) will drive the draft-day price up. So it may well be a better use of resources to instead plan on getting several high-skilled guys at the back of MLB bullpens. This is especially true if the new category is specifically W + Hd, and not W + (holds/2), which some are going to. If you're spreading it out, look for good teams and good offenses (more likely to have leads in games, etc). And then maybe one or more of your relievers ends up in a closers role at some point
WayOffBase
12:51
For keeper leagues, which pitchers coming over to the AL are worth spending an extra dollar on in the draft? (4x4 10-Tm)
Brent Hershey
12:51
Boy, not sure there are many .. I've always been a Garrett Richards fan, but due to injury risk he's still a late-rounder for me. He likely starts in AAA, but I'm very interested to see what the Rays do with Luis Patino. Maybe I"m missing some ...
Guest
12:56
Brent, Please give your thoughts on Toronto 1B, 3B, DH, OF positions.
Brent Hershey
12:56
For me, this is still all up in the air until we get a better sense of Vlad Jr's situation. He's lost weight and looks great and wants to play 3B ... but is that TOR's stance as well? I don't have a read on that yet. I do feel that 1) Teoscar is legit; he'll come back some but feel like is a VG corner OF and should get time, and 2) I'm interested in Tellez getting full-time AB in 2021. He's made some significant strides, but again how much they play him sorta hangs on Vladdy -- if they keep Jr at first, that likely trims Rowdy's PT some. Oh, but hard to imagine Espinal being the starting 3B come April 1 given how they've spent elsewhere. So maybe that's the answer.
Brent Hershey
12:57
Man, you all going strong, I see. Will get to as many of the rest of the Qs as possible in lightning round format ..
WayOffBase
12:59
So good to have you back, so another question, since there were the Alternative sites, what players impressed?
Brent Hershey
12:59
Thanks -- Overall somewhat skeptical of alt-site reports, since many come from the teams themselves. Some of the rosy ones will be right, but there's little incentive to be objective from the team perspective.
Jim from St. Paul
1:01
Hi Brent.  In the Mayberry section of the Forecaster (p. 64), it is mentioned that Mayberry scores can be adjusted can be adjusted based on the Reliability factors.  I've been playing around with doing the same thing for points-league forecasts using the same percentages listed.  The idea is to adjust the points forecast up or down to become a risk-adjusted forecast.  (I've actually been scaling the percentages in the table there to have a max of 100% so it is only a reduction).  This results in not so much a specific points expectation but rather a risk-adjusted forecasted value.  Has anyone looked into this in detail, analytically.  I don't have access to prior year forecasts or I would do it myself.  Thanks!
Brent Hershey
1:01
I believe Patrick Davitt did something with this a few years back for us, but it's a valid question/approach from what you have here. If you're a site subscriber, maybe reach out to us at support@baseballhq.com and we can either help you find it, or perhaps work something else out. Good Q!
Mike
1:01
5 X 5, Lynn or Carrasco?
Brent Hershey
1:01
Carrasco.
Vic
1:03
How do you see the Red Sox CF position playing out?
Brent Hershey
1:03
Think either Benintendi or Verdugo COULD play there, but not optimal. Roster says likely their OD centerfielder not with them yet.
Dead Arm Dandy
1:04
So what's your take on Puig being such a taboo signing the last 2 years for teams? Seems like a cheap placeholder(in terms of in years contract) that teams seem to covet
Brent Hershey
1:04
Think teams are scared off by the volatility and personality in some cases. In 2020, you'll remember he was just about signed and then caught COVID. But figure he has to sign somewhere in 2021.
TheMacs
1:06
With Hand now in Washington, I assume he's at the top of the list for saves.  I'm pessimistic.  As an Indian fan, I remember the 2nd half of 2019 and even though he had success last year, I never felt comfortable watching him close games out.  Am I wrong?  Who's next in line, Rainey?
Brent Hershey
1:06
Agree; Hand's recent work is not closer-worthy; 2020 decline in velo was esp concerning. Maybe that comes back ... but if not, yes like Rainey's chances and he's a perfect late-round target, esp now
Katman
1:07
I'm going through the seven stages of death and dying with Joe Musgrove. I was SO elated when he got moved to the Padres instead of the Yankees (I'm NL only).

Now I realize that he's still Joe Musgrove, and he's become Dave Bush in my mind -- everything's great except the results.

Is this really the year, or should I find another home for him?
Brent Hershey
1:07
He's not Bush yet, though I get the comp. I don't know if this is really the year, but if someone else in your league does, then there's your opportunity to maximize his value. OTOH, I'd NOT sell him for 10 cents on the dollar; I'd hold and just keep expectations reasonable.
Kris Olson
1:09
Shane Bieber keeper league question: Extend for one year at $14, two at $19 each or three at $24?
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