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Jan15 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:02
Greets, chatters! Back at it here after a couple weeks off due to holidays and finishing up our Minor League Baseball Analyst book. Speaking of which: today is the final day for the earliest delivery of the book, which went to press on Friday. Those that order through the link above will also have access to the entire PDF version tomorrow (Jan. 16). Perfect for early drafts!
Back to the chat; good number of Qs in the Q ... keep em coming, and let's go!
Michael W
12:07
Happy new year Brent! Wait… Is it too late to still say that even though we haven’t seen each other since December? I’m always asking about keepers and I felt I needed to lean into your expertise a little more on those dynasty players. In a 5 x 5 OBP Roto league we can have seven minor leaguers on our squad. My current group looks like this: Andrew Painter, Daniel Espinosa, Roman Anthony, Gabriel Gonzalez, Lazaro Montes, Orelvis Martinez and Spencer Jones. I aim for people that get listed as 8s or 9s on your page. Would you drop any of these if you have a chance to grab a Jett Williams, Wyatt Langford, Hurston Waldrip or Leodalis De Vries? I was considering moving on from Gabriel Gonzalez. Any other FYP that are below the radar you are looking at?
Brent Hershey
12:07
Not too late; HNY to you as well, Michael! Thanks for dropping in.
Would rank the newbies listed as Langford, Williams, Waldrep. As for cuts, yes, I'd move on from Gonzalez for any of those three, and would probably prefer Williams (should get on base a ton) over Martinez (power, but a bit of a free swinger).
Figuring that Espinosa is Espino, I might prefer Waldrep there instead also — Espino has filthy stuff, but yet to really be able to stay healthy and Waldrep is close and Braves have shown they are not shy in promoting guys who are ready. Good group ... good luck!
will
12:09
Thank you Brent for all the help. 4x4 keepr league AL only.Bradish 10 gausman 32 Bello 10 Resse olson 7 Pivetta 10 and Regan 6, can only keep 3 your thoguhts please?
Brent Hershey
12:09
Bradish, Pivetta and Ragans most likely; though could make an argument to buy the anchor in Gausman (would depend on what the rest of your keeper budget looks like). In that case, I'd drop Pivetta from the 3.
TX Wingman
12:12
10 team, NL only, keeper, 5x5 roto, OBP instead of BA with 10 pitchers and only 1 catcher.
I have Tatis at $35. Should I keep him at this price? BBHQ custom draft software has him at $33.
Your thoughts on how Tatis will perform this year.
Love your Monday chat!! Thank You!!
Brent Hershey
12:12
Probably would keep him at this price; as the CDG can't take into account inflation for keeper leagues. Which is your case likely pushes what Jr would go for to pretty far beyond $35, I'd think. Especially if FTJ is your lone high-ticket guy, I'd lean towards keeping.
David
12:16
Longtime HQ member
Need some guidance on Keepers for this year.
Soto $30, Hoskins $7, Chisolm $20, Gallen $19, Buehler $6, Edwin Diaz $8.
It’s a mixed 16 team league. Two quirks : We do walks instead of runs, making Soto more valuable and our league tends to pay the same money for top pitchers as they do for top hitters.
I only get to keep four guys
Thanks
Brent Hershey
12:16
Thanks for the support, David! We've got some significant site improvements in the pipeline and are excited to share them soon!
As for your squad, Soto, Díaz, Gallen and ... Hoskins? Not 100% sold there; Rhys hasn't walked as much in recent years as he did early on. But he's gonna find a near full-time 1B/DH job, I'm sure. Could make a case for Jazz there as #4; it's just health. He stays on the field, should easily return >$20. Kinda depends on your risk tolerance. Good luck!
Pedro
12:21
Hi Brent.  Any concerns with Gausman?  His underlying metrics like EV, max EV and barrel rate all slipped a bit last year.  Thx
Brent Hershey
12:21
I don't, even with realizing what you state. As the Forecaster box mentions, there's some indication that 2d half skills drop could be due to a non-DL side injury that caused him to miss a start in mid-July. Yes, getting to the age of where we want to be aware of a drop-off, but I'm not out yet. Full disclosure: I have drafted him as my SP1 in a couple places already.
Rich
12:26
Hi Brent. BaseballHQ seems significantly more bullish than the ADP consensus on Michael Harris II, Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, and Arraez. Any thoughts on why that might be?
Brent Hershey
12:26
I think it's as simple as different systems view and project players slightly differently. Given that our in-season projections are behind a paywall, we feel not always being in perfect step with ADP is a feature, not a bug. Threading that needle of projections v. ADP in-draft is the great puzzle.
The best part? In drafting, we still make our own final decisions; I'd be fibbing if I said I'm taking Arraez exactly where the BHQ projections say I should.
Kasey
12:27
Now that the minor league Organization reports have finished, when do you expect to hit us with the top 100 prospects? TIA
Brent Hershey
12:27
Great timing ... the HQ100 hits the site for subscribers tomorrow (Tuesday, Jan 16); the popular roundtable discussions will run on Wed and Thu!
Jerry Jones
12:30
Happy New Year Brent.  Do you see either Skenes or Dylan Crews having meaningful impact (say $10) in 2024?
Brent Hershey
12:30
Think it's possible for both; our prospect group has Crews as a bit ahead of Skenes in terms of 2024-only impact; both are within the Top 15. That probably makes sense -- when close, history says bet on the rookie hitter over the pitcher. But Skenes has the arsenal to hit the ground running -- for both, it's WHEN they hit that is the relevant question.
Rich
12:34
On thé pitching front, BHQ seems significantly more bullish than the ADP consensus on Fried, Musgrove, M. Kelly, and Pepiot. Any thoughts on why that might be?
Brent Hershey
12:34
Broad answer above ... but via this specific group, I'd say that at least for the first three, track record matters. Our initial projection was favorable for Pepiot; it got even better after the trade --- just b/c we're assuming he's a for-sure rotation member now and feel comfortable giving him more innings. Some pretty significant in-season adjustments for Pepiot.
Don Dringus
12:37
Is it worth hanging on to Manzardo for one more year in case his personal issues were the cause of his decline last year?
Brent Hershey
12:37
Depends what your other options are, really. What you say makes sense ... but there's some indications also that he'll need to skew toward the upper end of his projected outcomes to be an impact fantasy guy. He's just not a classic power-centric first baseman; as long as you have correct expectations there, I think hanging on for another year is fine.
Lou
12:46
I hold the #1 and # 7 picks in the supplemental round of our deep, NL only dynasty league. Unfortunately, there is not a surefire stud like Churio available. How would you rank these available draftees if you were in my spot: Matt Shaw, Luisangel Acuna, Victor Scott, Jacob Misiorowski, Aidan Miller, Bryce Eldridge, Yanquiel Fernandez.
Brent Hershey
12:46
Fun group. My own from-my-list rank is Misiorowski, Scott, Shaw, Eldridge, Miller, Acuna, Yanquiel. Some valid discussion if you want to spend #1 on a pitcher, though. Scott/Shaw just as worthy, and both are close to the majors.
A separate reference, our staff (combined) list rank is: Shaw, Misiorowski, Acuna, Yanquiel, Eldridge, Scott, Miller
Either way, getting 2 of those will be fun. GL!
Jerry P
12:49
What do see the positions of scarcity are in this years pool
Brent Hershey
12:49
Finding the quality of OFers drop off quickly. I THINK that's partially b/c of more platoons going on ... so to combat that, you can fold in/consider more maybe lesser-skilled guys who have a more sure-fire shot at everyday playing time. Just a thought.
Some also might say at 2B; but as usually there's some multi positional players who qualify there that I think are useable/draftable.
Katman
12:53
Pretty jazzed about Tyler Black. He looks like a potentially significant 2024 contributor in Milwaukee. What needs to happen to make it so?
Brent Hershey
12:53
Quite simply, nothing (from the MIL standpoint). Black is intriguing, but if MIL brings in an older FA guy with 3B experience to back him up or give him competition, then Black becomes less appealing right now. But, Black brings some hitterish skills and speed to the table, and giving MIL's cost-consciousness and where they are on the dev cycle, it does makes sense that they give Black the first shot at the job.
Rocky
12:56
Tarik Skubal seems to be breaking out and maybe on the cusp of much more. How would you view him as a keeper option in a 10 team, keep 10 league, to pair with Gerrit Cole? Signed, a Tigers fan who really likes Skubal
Brent Hershey
12:56
Depends ... if this a 10-team mixed league, he's much closer to being a cut than in an AL-only. But OTOH, fantasy is supposed to be fun, right? Keeping him alongside Cole, as a Tigers fan, would definitely qualify, and is defensible, it seems. Like a lot of what I saw both pre- and post-injury with Skubal. Feel like in redraft leagues, the current price is a bit too steep ... but in this keeper situation, yeah I'd say go for it.
Brent Hershey
12:57
Wow, you all brought the goods here ... will try to get to the rest here in more rapid-fire...
Lou
12:58
A post-hype Miguel Vargas owner here. Need him to get dealt to an NL team, ala Busch, Has LA given up on him (unofficially)? The more they add payroll and star power, the more pressure to win now, which doesn't bode well for Vargas. Which NL teams could use him?
Brent Hershey
12:58
Think he's a piece for LA, but not a foundational one. Don't think they are under the gun to trade him, sorry.
Broken Bat
12:59
Thanks for the chat time on such a cold day in Midwest. I would like to pick your brain or you can bring out the crystal ball on a prospect Xavier Edwards. There seems to be something very valuable about a contact hitter that runs like he does. However, it seems the arm strength isn’t there to play shortstop on Marlins which only has Berti mid age 30’s in front of him. Lat year Batting champ is playing 2nd base for Marlins, and unless they DH Arrez it seems like no position is available. What do you see his value to be in 2024?
Brent Hershey
12:59
I'm interested in Edwards for the reasons you state. You also encapsulate the risk. Maybe they try him some in the OF? Worthy pick in draft/holds or deep reserve roster spots.
Steve
1:00
Curious to get your take on a fairly deep AL-only sleeper, Lawrence Butler.  He seems like he offers a pretty interesting combination of power and speed and may have a decent path to playing time in OAK.
Brent Hershey
1:00
Spring training decision for me. OAK a club where he could have a great March and win a job. But others can too, in that OF. Butler's got tools, but sw/miss concerns as well
Steve
1:03
In a deeper league (e.g. 12 team AL or NL only) how do you approach roster construction?  Do you overload on hitting knowing there will be more viable pitchers on the wire during the season?  Are you more likely to go LIMA (or some iteration)?
Brent Hershey
1:03
My current lean (subject to change, ha!) is to go a bit more pitching heavy up top. Think there's more certainty, bigger gap between first and last pitchers taken. Personally, I feel better finding in-season bats on the WW than playing the pitching streamer game.
Neil
1:06
Hey Brent - With Busch going to the Cubs, I assume his playing time projection will shoot up (assuming he becomes the starting 1B).  I assume this would increase hit counting stats, while potentially hurting his OBA as he'll now be less of a platoon guy.  Does that sound right?  Also, how about a pick for the Birds game tonight?  Thx!
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