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Jan29 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:01
Howdy, chatters! Finally got some melting of the free agent iceberg in the past week; likely more to come this week. Thanks of all the questions in the queue now; don't be shy. Baseball season is a-comin! Let get to it ..
will
12:09
Thanks Brent, 1. What do you see for a Trout and Correa  rebound? and secondly the Stephenson hype train? real?
Brent Hershey
12:09
Both a Trout/Correa rebound is health-dependent, a tough ask for those two in the past couple of seasons. And keeping the level of your 'rebound' expectations in check. With lack of SB for both, would not be wishing for a career year for either, of course.
On Stephenson: the type TRAIN is real, yes (ha!), but I presume you're asking about the hype itself. There seem to me to be several things that need to go right here for RS to end up with the lion's share of the closer role: The small-sample awesomeness of late '23 has to hold AND Estévez has to pitch poorly/lose the job, reading between the lines to the team statements. Both could happen, but it might be March or it might be June for both to solidify. For me  where RS is now going in drafts has been too rich given the circumstances.
Katman
12:12
NL only 5x5. Mets have some enticing prospects in the high minors. Of Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuna, which is likely to make the biggest 2024 impact.
Brent Hershey
12:12
I'm a huge Jett Williams fan and think he has the highest long-term upside of the three ... but for 2024, I think Acuña has the best chance at impact. Already has a bunch of time in AAA, 2B/3B for the Mets seems wide open, and he's the most ready right now of the trio.  May not hit; but has wheels and should end 2024 with the most MLB AB of that bunch.
Willie in NJ
12:17
I'm in a relatively shallow (10 teams) 6 player keeper league with OBP rather than AVG.  I have Adley Rutschman on the cusp as the 6th keeper.  Based on the hype it seems like a no brainer to keep him but his 2024 projections from HQ and others seem to be more or less of a repeat of his very good but not great 2023 season.  So the question is, how much growth do you expect in the next few years and how much will I regret dropping him in favor of someone with better immediate upside (e.g.:  Bellinger or Nolan Jones)?  Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:17
Yeah, tough call. Projections don't love him to take a step up this year, you're right. But the counter would be the floor is so good, and the pedigree/foundational skills are such that a next step is almost expected at some point. The question is when. Is he one of the 60 best players is one way to look at it. In an OBP ... perhaps he is. I'd certainly prefer him over Bellinger or Jones, I'd think.
DrDave
12:22
12 team, NLonly, auction, keeper league, $260 budget, which I won handily last year.  I'm toying with keeping my studs (Olsen $44, Arenado $40, Trea $54, DSwanson $29).  I think with the knowledge gained from BaseballHQ I can fill in the gaps with players who will go cheap but perform well.  I've never tried this approach before and I would question my sanity by doing it.   I do have a nice start on pitching keepers.   Am I crazy?
Brent Hershey
12:22
Not crazy on a conceptual level .. but practically, tying up $167 on those four seems like a lot, in terms of maneuverability in the draft. Knowing your league bidding dynamics helps, too. I'd probably have most questions about Arenado at 40 and would likely just pick one of the shortstops to go forward with. Other comment: Thanks for the sub, and is awesome that you feel prepared to fill in those gaps. Good luck in quest to repeat!
Michael W
12:26
how close is Michael Harris II to being a top 10 OF? On the cusp or probably not going to happen?
Brent Hershey
12:26
Redraft league ADP tells us that the market views him there right now -- #10 OF-er being drafted. That feels right to me. The batting average floor and broad base of skills (including CF defense, which quashes any lineup questions) is a super foundation; one that could take another step at any point and become a first-round talent in a best-case scenario. Another upshot is if (sorry, ATL fans) Acuna or Alibes miss time, MH II moves up into that top-third of the lineup and counting stats only rise. Lotsa goodness here.
Randy L.
12:28
Do you believe Wyatt Langford, Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourio will all be on their teams opening day roster?
Brent Hershey
12:28
I do not (that they ALL will be on the OD roster). My rank in confidence for each individual player starting in the majors would be Chourio, Holliday, Langford. Super fun trio, though, and would love to see all three with their squads on OD.
QMaestro
12:34
Thank you for all you do.  Love the commentary.  Question on prospects for the  following players in a 12-team, AL-Only, 4x4 Roto (standard format 14 hitters/9 pitchers).   Are they Keepers at $10?  Junior Caminero, Isaac Paredes, Jose Caballero, Wyatt Langford, Bryce Miller, Yusei Kikuchi, Gavin Williams?
Brent Hershey
12:34
No-doubt yes to Paredes, Miller, Kikuchi and Williams.
Caminero and Langford: probably yes given long-term appeal, but would like to fold in spring performance/news if I can.
Caballero: depends on your team needs. He'll probably earn more than $10 given his SB appeal, but could hurt in other cats. This is one, too, that spring news could help. If Caminero makes the TAM roster from the jump, that could affect JC's playing time and I'd likely pass.  Good luck!
Dan
12:37
In a head to head points league, in what order would you take/rank Burnes, Castillo, and Wheeler?
Brent Hershey
12:37
I could absolutely pay dearly for this, but I'm a bit off Burnes this season. 1H slippage last year; don't think the MIL situation does him any favors. Wheeler slightly over Castillo for the 1-2 spots.
TexasBob
12:42
Have you analyzed Stuff + and would you consider it very, or somewhat, or not all that.... accurate in projecting pitchers' performance vs. some of the other Xstats ?
Brent Hershey
12:42
Good question ... I find it useful as another tool in the eval process, alongside more 'traditional' BHQ and other stats/metrics/projections as well as Statcast data. When several of these tools "line up" and tell a consistent narrative (team context/usage is important in this also), then I'm really interested or all-in re: an individual pitcher. But I think you're limiting yourself if you use/rely on any one of these in isolation. Approaches may differ; that one's mine. Hope it helps.
Kasey
12:45
N. Marte, keeper @ 10 in NL only?  Thanks, Brent
Brent Hershey
12:45
Yes in a keeper league for sure. Has a broader base of skills than the 'normal' 3B prospect (read: has some SB ability). I wish, though, I knew more about how CIN was going to approach all of these infielders. As I inferred above, take in as much as you can before your cutdown day to help inform your decision. Though, perhaps in a keeper league it shouldn't matter as much; he should def be worth a 2024 slot.
Michael W
12:53
Good afternoon sir, Two questions as I look to upgrade my OF in a dynasty 5x5 OBP league: Estuary Ruiz is barely ranked as an OF and seems to be an avoid but this site gives him a projected value of around $30. Is he someone to target? Also, at what point do you start to worry about having too many players from the same team? For example from Boston I had Duran and Casas which was fine but with O’Neill getting traded there I’ve now got 3 Boston players. Does that concern you where you drop/trade one? I would have held onto O’Neill to see if there is a bounce back but now I’m not so sure.
Brent Hershey
12:53
  1. Ruiz would not be a target for me in a dynasty context. The projected value there is for 2024 only; and his projected SB are driving that number. It's a good question and issue to keep in mind with regard to projected values.
  2. I only 'worry' about it from a team-context perspective (as you allude to here) -- in terms of what that team's starting lineup will look like. In this particular case, Casas has 1B to himself, and the BOS starting outfield could well include both O'Neill and Duran (likely in CF). If both were 'fighting' for, say, a corner OF spot, then I'd be much more hesitant to keep both -- although again in a dynasty context, where you take in the long-term, maybe that's not quite as big of a deal. Depends on your fantasy roster rules etc. So I would make that O'Neill decision based more on his individual context/ skill set/ opportunity to play than I would on how many BOS players that would be on my fantasy roster.
Hope that helps.
Bob
12:57
Hi Brent.  In a deep NL 5x5 keeper league.  I have Eury and cheap closers but not much else. I have Ashby and Gore for nothing and have two open spots.  Would you keep one, both, neither?  Thx
Brent Hershey
12:57
In your situation, I would keep Gore for sure. Still super young, finally seemed to be healthy, and perhaps 2023 in one spot was good for him? Pedigree says another step could well come at some point. Ashby is a bit different b/c of the injury history, I'd be a bit more wary. BUT ... again in your situation where maybe you're looking to establish some younger guys AND the cost is "nothing", it could definitely be viable. I just would hold my expectations lower in AA's case because of the health questions.
Brent Hershey
12:59
Looks like that's it ... fun hour as usual! If you're not a subscriber, check out BaseballHQ.com while you're here; there are some very fun things lined up in the near future! And if you're on the fence about a spring training trip to Florida, I'd invite you to join us at First Pitch conference in St. Petersburg/Clearwater on March 1-3. Hope to see you there; follow the links on the site for more info. See y'all next week!
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