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Jason Mackey's Pirates chat: 04.04.23
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Jason Mackey
11:37
Hey everyone. Thanks for stopping by my weekly Pirates chat. You know the drill. We'll get started at noon, but feel free to ask your questions now. Will be back shorty to answer.
david--
11:42
Hey Jason...Do you see Suwinski as a guy that will ever hit for average? Did he ever in the minors?
Jason Mackey
11:44
Gonna get going a little early here folks. Hope that's OK. ... Suwinski has never been a real high average guy. Topped out at .262. I think that may be a struggle for him, yes. But I also think batting average is an incomplete and archaic stat. His OPS the past two minor league seasons has been .820 and .868. If that's what we wind up talking about in the majors, I'm good with it.
Wayward
11:44
Jason, I know that we shouldn't pay any attention to spring training results for the veteran pitchers but how many starts into a year do you go before you get concerned?  As it relates to Hill thru the spring and first start what is causing him some problems?  Thanks.
Jason Mackey
11:45
I have zero concern about Rich Hill. I know that opinion isn't shared by the fan base, but whatever. Hill has missed too many spots, sure. But as the final four innings in Cincy showed, he has also hit them. I just think we need to give it a little more time.
Tony Womack
11:45
Probably have 100 of these already.... Will an extension get done with Bryan Reynolds before the home opener?
Jason Mackey
11:46
I still think it will, but I'm certainly less optimistic than I was. The opt-out thing is not a small deal. I don't think the Pirates will do a deal with one. But I do believe they'll figure it out.
Potato Pete
11:46
I'm back baby!!!! What's your win total prediction for me this season?
Jason Mackey
11:47
Sup Pete. I'm going 74.
Curt
11:47
Any updates on AT&T Sports? What does the future look like there? Broadcasts/blackouts/etc.
Jason Mackey
11:47
No updates. But also no blackouts. As was written in mid-March -- remains true -- nothing will change for this season. It's beyond 2023 that's still being discussed.
Hank
11:47
Hi Jason.  While watching the Pirates players exchange fist pumps and high fives after last night’s victory, it appeared that Cruz ignored Bednar in line.  Do you know if there is a rift between them or  was it just a possible oversight by Cruz?  Thank you.
Jason Mackey
11:49
Did not see this, Hank. Also have a really hard time believing this would actually happen. Zero rift. They're two of the best and most well-respected people in that clubhouse.
Roberto
11:49
Who’s the starting 5 come August?
Jason Mackey
11:50
I'll go Keller, Ro, Oviedo, Ortiz and Burrows.
Christine
11:50
Good morning.  Have the Pirates provided any updates about Brubaker’s injury?  Thanks.
Jason Mackey
11:51
Hey Christine. They have not. My guess is that they're exploring ways to try and potentially avoid season-ending surgery before announcing anything formal. I've heard Tommy John is being considered, so it's not small.
Wayward
11:51
Jason, You surmised when doing your roster review that Mldzinski was going to be working out of the bullpen in Indy.  Have the Pirates confirmed that?  Why do you think they would make that move?  Does he have the closer/back end guy mentality?
Jason Mackey
11:54
As "confirmed" as anything can be in baseball, yes. Indy rotation should be Ortiz, Burrows, Priester, Bido and Smith. ... They make the move because he might be one of those guys -- I don't know, we'll see -- who's better just simplifying and attacking. His results as a starter were inconsistent, but he might be dominant as a reliever. Also could help given he has about 2 1/2 pitches right now.
Willie
11:54
Bucs fans spend a lot of time following prospects as they provide more hope than the payroll disadvantaged Pirates. And while it’s fun to dream on Endy, Ortiz, Burrows, Priester, Davis etc joining the squad in 2023-2024, the most important questioned seems to go unanswered… Does this Pirates team + AAA/AA prospects project to be a contender in 2025? It looks more like average pitching and average hitting to me. Better than recent teams? Sure! But a contender? Hard to see. Am I missing something?
Jason Mackey
11:55
A contender for what, Willie? Should they be over .500 by then and potentially compete in the division? I think they can. If they don't compete for a World Series, is the franchise shuttered? They're in the middle of a rebuild. I get there were failed ones before that, but they shouldn't determine how this one will play out.
Dave Parker
11:55
Has management or the coaching staff considered moving Hayes to SS? The guy is a magician at 3B and still has the frame for it even in his mid-20’s. It would elevate the entire defense and take pressure off his bat. What would you recommend Jason?
Jason Mackey
11:56
No way. Especially not with Oneil Cruz there. And Cruz -- give him credit -- has looked better defensively. Granted it's a small sample size. No, I'm fine doing exactly what they're doing with Hayes. He should win multiple Gold Gloves there. Should have won his first there last year.
Honus
11:57
If the lower leverage relievers falter early on, who are the first bullpen reinforcements? Does service time matter to management for these types of decisions? Any guys to keep an eye on as the inevitable attrition occurs? I’ve heard a lot about Shelby’s slider but assume there are other horses in the stable
Jason Mackey
11:58
Honus, you speak in questions. ... First relievers up could be a couple different guys. Colin Selby -- assuming this is who you mean -- could be one, certainly. He has more than a slider, too. Carmen Mlodzinski is another. Also liked what I saw from Bido in spring training. Curious if there's not something there. Another non-roster guy who intrigues me is Cam Alldred. Should also probably mention Yohan Ramirez or Yerry De Los Santos because they're on the 40-man roster.
Guest
11:59
I understand why neither Shelton or Cherington will quantify any goals for 2023, but what are your expectations with respect to wins this season?   And what would be a reasonable metric for evaluating starting pitching performance?  I believe atrociuos starting pitching has torpedoed the last three seasons.
Jason Mackey
12:00
I expect the win total to start with a 74. I think they need to be in the mid-70s. If it's under 68 -- the Vegas projection -- we have problems. ... Not sure what you mean by metric for starting pitching performance. Like FIP? I would use it over ERA, although most don't know what it is. So I stick with ERA. I also think -- and this isn't a metric -- but are you giving your team a chance to win? Like Oviedo last night. Numbers weren't good, but he gave his team a chance to win.
epiballo
12:00
After the Bucs lost the series in Cincinnati, some fans in the chat rooms bemoaned that nothing's changed from the problems of last year's team. What do you see that gives hope that this year will be different?
Jason Mackey
12:02
Wait, fans in chat rooms? Like AOL style? This is a remarkable discovery. What's different? Well, one, I wouldn't formulate opinions based on less than 2% of the season. Furthermore ... veterans, pitching, offense should be better, defense, guys growing up. I mean, a lot. Stuff we've talked about a lot.
epiballo
12:02
Which is better - to give Reynold's an opt-out clause, to pay him what he wants without such a clause, trade him or keep him without an extension?
Jason Mackey
12:03
Here's what I know:
  1. I wouldn't do the current deal.
  2. I would do the deal without an opt-out.
  3. If they need an opt-out, is it fungible?
  4. If it's not, trade 2025 deadline.
  5. If it is, I think I'd give him an opt-out after six.
Cornette
12:03
Jason, what are you hearing about who the Pirates might draft?  Is Dylan Crews still the odds on favorite?  Let’s go Bucs!
Jason Mackey
12:05
There's not some sort of magical "Who's We're Gonna Draft Fairy" who comes whispering to reporters. Just FYI. Seems to be a common misconception. But again, here's what I know:
  1. The Pirates routinely spend all of their draft dollars. Yes, seriously. Look it up.
  2. Dylan Crews, on 4/4/23, is unquestionably the best player available.
  3. This group has said it will take the best player available, unless there's another strategy that makes sense.
  4. I get it in '21, when there was no slam dunk No. 1. This doesn't look to be that.
Guest
12:06
What a sweet scenerio watching the Pirates shut down the Red Sox last night11  I just cant help but imagine the stability provided by Cutch, Carlos, Choi and Hill helped ease the 'kiddied wagon' into this precious moment.  Bedar '23 is very stable, compared to last year!! Kudos to the FO and Sheltie for setting this vibe in the clubhouse!
Jason Mackey
12:06
Bednar was pretty stable last year, too. Dude was an All-Star. I've liked what the vets have brought, too, although this was more than that. Cutch didn't play, Choi didn't do much, and Hill started Saturday. Bunch of other ingredients last night. Still fun, though.
epiballo
12:06
If the season becomes another lost cause by the trade deadline, who do the Pirates trade: Reynolds, Bednar, or both?
Jason Mackey
12:07
Could easily be neither.
62 Stack Monster
12:07
Hi Jason, Good to see the box scores back in the paper.  Why not let Connor Joe dh? He seems to be hotter than Choi.
Jason Mackey
12:08
Spring training is tough. A longer explanation for that. They may have went with Choi because he has hit well at Fenway (see my note in the glance box yesterday). The more logical answer is Kutter Crawford has an OPS-against that's more than 200 points higher against lefties than righties.
Gene
12:08
What is your assessment of Oscar Marin and his assistant coaches?
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