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Jason Mackey's Pirates chat: 04.29.20
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Jason Mackey
11:57
Hi folks. Thanks for joining my weekly chat. We could use some more questions here, so feel free to fire away. Gonna get started here in a couple minutes.
Marty
12:03
Thinking in the next 4 or 5 Years, Bob will threaten to move team to Vegas, Sacramento, etc.?  Lease up in 10 years...thinking the shakedown comes 5 or 6 years before...what do you think?
Jason Mackey
12:06
I don't think so, Marty. Honestly, I think a more likely scenario would be Nutting selling before then, especially given what baseball franchises are worth these days. ... I could also see Nutting keeping the Pirates for a long time and gifting them to his daughters. But I don't expect him to threaten to move like you're saying.
Guest
12:06
In what ways do you think a shortened season could benefit the Pirates?
Jason Mackey
12:07
Less opportunity to screw things up? Not trying to be a wise guy, but seriously. They have had strong starts in the past but struggled to finish. This would be the perfect time to pull that stunt again. Also, fewer games means -- in theory -- less of a need for depth. That's one of the areas where the Pirates lack.
Rick Hays
12:07
Is there any person or way to buy the Pirates from BOB NUTHOUSE, I mean Bob Nutting?  (lol)  He keeps making money from his businesses, and refuses payment of salaries to get and keep great players.
Jason Mackey
12:08
If Bob Nutting chose to sell the Pirates, he would have no shortage of suitors, believe me.
Ricky
12:08
which plan do you see working out for MLB?
Jason Mackey
12:10
Based on Dr. Fauci's comments this morning to The New York Times, not the one floated yesterday. Sounds like it'll have to be something where everyone is quarantined in one city, at least to start. I think you could do that in Arizona; Arizona and Florida; Arizona, Florida and Texas; or perhaps -- although probably less likely -- in 5-6 hubs across the country. At this point, it seems like the fewer locations the better. But you're gonna have to make sure guys' families can come. I'm afraid that's what would ultimately prevent this from happening.
La’meer
12:10
When do you think they decide on a plan?
Jason Mackey
12:10
I think end of May is fairly likely at this point, although it's tough to say for sure. Depends so much on testing, etc. But I think they would like to have something in place by late May or early June.
Jacque Strap
12:10
How far did you go in your baseball career, where did you play? Got any great stories from a performance of yours?
Jason Mackey
12:11
I played high school at Brentwood, college at Westminster, legion for Brentwood and Brookline and in Daily News League over the summer. I was a pitcher, catcher and infielder. Bounced all around really. I have a bunch of stories, although at the risk of sounding like Al Bundy, I don't think I need to bore yinz with any of them.
Donald
12:11
How do you anticipate the lost revenues experienced this year to impact the team? Will they be more aggressive once play starts to trade any assets of value they have, assuming the chances of extending anyone is slim at best?
Jason Mackey
12:16
It's a great question, Donald. One, I don't think we know. I think it depends on what can be done to alleviate some of that financial burden. Can TV money be split differently? Can they, say, monetize uniforms and sell ad space there? Is there a business-related thing the Pirates or MLB can do that I'm not mentioning (surely there is). ... As far as trading assets, I think that also depends on what the season looks like. Ideally, you would like Kela, Archer and others to up their value, then solicit offers. If they're playing, I don't know if there's a need to be "more aggressive." There's a need to make better trades than they have recently, but that doesn't necessarily mean being more aggressive. ... Chances of extensions ... right now that sort of stuff is frozen. So, no. But once it's not, I can't see that affecting extensions. If you have an opportunity to do something smart for your business four, five or six years down the line -- say buying out Reynolds' arbitration years -- then you need ...
... to do it, IMO. If you skimp there, in the short-term, it's only going to limit the long-term viability of your product or team. But the key will be figuring out some sort of revenue depending on whatever MLB decides to do.
Joshua
12:20
Why was Newman always included in extension talk? This would already be his age 26 season, has 5 years of control remaining, at which point he'd his free agency for his age 31 season, so he's no spring chicken at that point. I don't see his salaries ballooning at any point, so no real cost savings. Really, seems like another Jordy Mercer, who made decent money in arbitration and was obviously not worth bringing back after that.
Jason Mackey
12:25
He was included in extension talk because he was  offered an extension. And from what I understand, for whatever reason, the discussion never advanced very far. But your point is well-taken. I think the issue is the possibility of what you're saying not happening. What if Newman becomes an elite player? At that point the Pirates are trying to have cost-certainty. I also think it would send a certain message to fans -- "Hey, look at us! We're keeping our best players!" -- while not spending a ton more than they would otherwise. You're saying, "I don't see his salaries ballooning ... " Devil's advocate, what if you're wrong? I think that's why it's worth considering, along with the fact that they don't have a proven commodity at shortstop. You'd like to think Cole Tucker is that guy, but there's no guarantee. Ditto with Oneil Cruz. Liover Peguero (Marte trade) is too far away.
Butch
12:25
Who do you see being the Pirates best starting pitcher this season?
Jason Mackey
12:26
Good question. I would vote either Chris Archer or Mitch Keller. I don't think Archer is done. I think there's plenty left in the tank, and he was pretty much wasted under the former group. I also think that if they play and he has a strong start, he'll be traded. Keller also looked really good in spring. His stuff is nasty. He's starting to mature and learn how to handle it. I would bet, too, that this group doesn't Glasnow him, and he's actually able to pull that talent out.
Sammy
12:27
Is the Pirates' revenue truly at zero right now? It would make sense if it was, I'm just wondering if I'm missing something.
Butch
12:31
If the seasons starts, do you expect Ke’Bryan Hayes and Cole Tucker to make the team? If so, do you see either player cracking the starting lineup?
Jason Mackey
12:34
I do expect both of them to make the team. If things were normal, I would've said no; I expect them to start in Class AAA Indianapolis. Both had good springs, but neither was truly great. But with the scope of this season -- compressed schedule; perhaps two doubleheaders a week; the possibility of playing exclusively in Arizona; plus, a quick ramp-up -- I think MLB will almost have to expand rosters. Once that happens, I think you will see guys like that make it. Also, there likely won't be a minor league season, so this could be their only development opportunity. Add it all up, and that's what makes me think they'll make the team. The interesting part will be how they play.
Donald
12:34
I think your points about alternative revenue sources make a lot of sense. I also agree about trying to make smarter trades than they've done in the past. I have to think though, at least in the short-medium terms, this will have large ramifications for the Pirates baseball operations. They already have a well earned reputation for scrimping on payroll and free agents. This situation will almost assuredly keep payroll amongst the lowest in the league for the foreseeable future. Fan apathy is already at a low point, and outside of a temporary attendance boost once games begin again at PNC Park, I can't help but think that they will dwell in the basement of the Central division both in attendance and W-L record for a long time to come unless they start drafting all star talent. Thoughts? Is there any hope?
Jason Mackey
12:36
I agree with you, Donald. There are more ways this hurts the Pirates, too. The possibility they might not be able to trade Kela for prospects/picks. Or Newman and Reynolds accruing service time without playing. It's bad in many ways. But talking strictly payroll, yeah, you would have to imagine that any sort of financial hit the Pirates take this season would be reflected on future payrolls. And they're not alone in that. That's why I think they and other clubs must get creative to find ways to generate revenue.
G
12:36
What are your thoughts on the pirates catchers? Very little offense to offer.
Jason Mackey
12:43
On the list of things that concern me about the Pirates, right now, the offense their catchers supply is not on it, honestly. Even though it was definitely bad in 2019. One, Jacob Stallings was actually quite good defensively. Way, way better than his salary. Second, Luke Maile has been fine on that side of the ball throughout his career; the knock against him has been his offense, which is a fair criticism. But scoring runs was not as much of an issue last season for the Pirates as was preventing them. Stallings was good, but Elias Diaz was horrible; he honestly might've been the worst defensive catcher in baseball. So, while I think they can obviously get better -- the same up and down their roster -- I don't think what they have now is awful. ... They could also stand to find at least one legitimate catching prospect somewhere.
Butch
12:44
Do you agree with many others that Oneil Cruz could be a future superstar?Also, do you think he will stay at shortstop or move to another position?
Jason Mackey
12:45
Calling someone a future "superstar" is a strong term. Do I think he'll play in the major leagues? Yeah, I do. He has a ton of talent. I'm not yet ready, however, to say he's gonna be a superstar. I also don't know if I see him sticking at shortstop. The thing that worries me is his footwork, short-area quickness and focus. If he can improve all three, then yeah, the arm and bat are there. I just don't know if he'll be able to improve all three. I see him more as a succession plan to Gregory Polanco in right field.
Scott
12:45
Did you hear anything about the Pirates being the only team in professional sports to suspend 401 K contributions to their employees?
Jason Mackey
12:49
Scott, look up. That big thing you see is a rock. You're gonna want to push it and off to the side. Get out from under it however you can, but beware of the sun. My friends from aht-a-tahn tell me it's bright. ... Yes, I saw that. And they got crushed some for it, which I don't necessarily think is fair. It stinks that it has to happen, obviously. But in a couple more days, I'd be stunned if there aren't at least 5-6 teams who've taken cost-cutting measures. Clubs are in a tough spot with barely any money coming in.
seferg
12:53
What percent of a teams revenues is made from ticket sales?  If they play all in Arizona, how will baseball make money other than mlb package deals?
Jason Mackey
1:01
That's the million- -- or really billion- -- dollar question. Per Forbes, MLB made $10.5 billion in revenue in 2019. Gate receipts counted for $3.2 billion or a little over 30%. Over the past decade that number has been between 30-40%. Forbes listed the Pirates as getting $44 million on gate receipts in 2019 -- or about 16% of total revenue. Take this for what it's worth, but Forbes' numbers are routinely criticized by MLB team staffers, although nobody is usually willing to provide actual information as to why they're wrong.
1:02
But to get back to the point -- sorry, I spent some time researching that -- they should be looking to do things like sponsorships or advertisements on jerseys. Maybe more in-stadium ads. I would explore different pricing plans on merchandise and try to move more of it.
Butch
1:02
Do you think they will use robot umpires as part of the plans do resume baseball this season? I had heard this being one of the things considered in the Arizona plan.
Jason Mackey
1:04
I don't get that part of the Arizona plan. If players are quarantined together and remain inside of this bubble, it's like our families. I don't have to maintain a six-foot distance from my wife. We live together. We experience the same things. That's the way it would work here. They would self-isolate at first -- in theory -- then they'd basically be one big, happy, baseball family.
Itsyoboi
1:04
The pirates need to sign puig. He would be a lot cheaper now and is a good player. Plus bring some optimism to the fans
Jason Mackey
1:06
If I'm a fan, I would not be optimistic at all about signing Yasiel Puig. I'd like to see the Pirates spend more than they do, absolutely. I'd like to see them draft and develop better and improve in a lot of areas. But Yasiel Puig inspiring hope? I think I'll pass. Don't screw up the draft. ... Also, how faint are those hopes if you're clinging to Puig?
Jr 317
1:06
I can't possibly see how this team improves its record over last yeat.  No Taillon, Vasquez or Marte.  Do you think they can get within 10 games of playing 500?  If so,how?
Jason Mackey
1:10
They didn't have Taillon last year, either. Vasquez is fair, although Kela can be pretty good. They'll miss Marte, but I don't think it's going to be a gigantic, crippling drop-off going from him to Jarrod Dyson, who runs the bases better and is a better defender. ... When people rip the Pirates and say they're terrible and there's no way they'll win more than 69 games, etc., these people generally have little feel for how miserable things were last season and how underutilized some of the talent was. One example: Joe Musgrove said they had this pitching tech -- Rapsodo, TrackMan, etc. -- but nobody ever explained what it did or how to use it. Remember what Glasnow said a couple months ago? How he was basically armed with nothing when it came to pitching up in the zone or adjusting his approach? I had been saying the Pirates were woefully behind the times when it came to preparing pitchers, and this was exactly what I had been told -- only off-the-record. The new group is 180 degrees different. ...
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