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Jason Mackey's Pirates chat: 06.04.21
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Jason Mackey
10:25
Hello, everyone. Welcome to my weekly chat. Had to move it from Wednesday because I was traveling back from Kansas City. Hope you can still participate. We're gonna start at 11, but feel free to leave your questions now. Thanks!
Matt from LA
10:58
Jason, I really enjoy your honest, objective perspective and journalism regarding this year's team. Unlike our announcers, you do not try to sugar coat the team or its performance. One question: Although I realize why they are stuck with Polanco, why continue to play K'ai Tom? Drawing occasional walks does not warrant the playing time that he receives. There has to be someone better in our system?
Jason Mackey
10:58
OK, let's get started.
11:00
Hi Matt, couple things here. One, I'm not sure there's anyone immediately available in the system. I do think Tom is a better option right now than anyone at Class AAA, although Bligh Madris intrigues me. Need to see more. Eventually, I think Canaan Smith-Njigba and Cal Mitchell could contend for time, but not now. We've seen Anthony Alford, Dustin Fowler and Troy Stokes Jr., and it's the same as Tom to me. One thing I don't get about Tom is why they don't take advantage of his ability to walk -- I.e. why not bat him in front of guys who can drive in runs? Having him bat in front of guys like Gonzalez and Newman means nothing if he walks, then they can't get a hit. We've been over Polanco. They're trying to let him accrue some semblance of trade value.
Matt from LA
11:00
Is Cole Tucker ever going to be given a real chance to see what he can do on the major league level?
Jason Mackey
11:00
I think Cole Tucker has to earn some opportunities, and to this point, he really hasn't done that. At Class AAA or the big leagues.
Dirk
11:00
With all of the offensive woes of late, do you think that it is finally time for the Pirates to unleash the Lonnie Chisenhall solution?
Jason Mackey
11:01
And that would be ... ?
Guest
11:01
Has any reporter reached out to our fearless owner for comment in response to the PG editorial?  What about the Commissioner's office?
Jason Mackey
11:02
I don't think so, and I don't see why that would be necessary. It's an editorial. Not a reported piece. That's the opinion of the Post-Gazette's editorial board. Nutting is free to disagree with it and probably did. Others can agree with it. It's why editorials exist. But, no. Nobody has reached out, and I have heard nothing of Bob's opinion on it, although I can't imagine he agrees.
Justin R.
11:02
Is there any universe where Adam Frazier and/or Colin Moran are part of the next core?
Jason Mackey
11:04
None whatsoever. They have trade value. The Pirates know their window is 2023 at the earlier. One, people automatically assume that those guys, who are so darn close to free agency, would for some reason want to sign here. Two, they have prospects in Nick Gonzales and Mason Martin who theoretically should be able to contribute for cheaper. Lastly, Frazier and Moran have trade value. Why pay money for the present, when you're almost assuredly not going to contend, and decline to get something that could be used toward your next push?
Pirates fan
11:09
how Do you feel about Cruz? Will he be up this year
Jason Mackey
11:10
I've liked what I've seen lately. His approach at the plate looks much more mature. I think there's a chance, yeah. The tricky thing, though, is his fielding. He has 8 errors in 22 games, I believe. That's ... pretty bad. That said, I don't know if it matters. If he produces with the bat, you may just have to live with it, which I can. I think if his current hot streak continues, then yeah, we probably do see him in September. Will be interesting to see at which position, though.
Pirates fan
11:11
what pitchers do you see debuting this year? Kranick? Rosany?
Jason Mackey
11:12
Potentially either, honestly. Kranick is definitely close. Liked what I saw out of his first Class AAA start. He'll obviously need more runway there. I think they'll need to get Roansy in Class AAA as well, which may be 1-2 dominant starts in Class AA away. But totally reasonable to think those two could debut. They have the talent. Just a matter of proving it.
Scooter Pie
11:12
Hi, Jason!  As happy as I am that Hayes has returned, is it possible that people may be expecting too much offensive production from him?  Yes, he had a great September in The Bigs, but his career minor league average is in the .270’s, and he never hit more than 10 homers in a season.
Jason Mackey
11:13
I don't think so. I think it might be a bit much to expect him to single-handedly save the Pirates. He's gonna need help. But he did it last season, he did it in spring ... why can't he perform at this level? Minor league production doesn't always accurately predict what guys do in the majors. And that's a two-wat street.
Scott S
11:13
Does an experience like Todd Frazier seemed to have had in Pittsburgh have a downstream effect on the Pirates ability to lure free agents when they are ready to add? Is Pittsburgh a place players want to play?
Jason Mackey
11:15
I don't think one has anything to do with the other. Pittsburgh will be a place people want to play when/if the Pirates start winning and spending money. As of now, it's seen as a rebuilding team that probably won't win much with a cheap owner. Guys can use it as a springboard for other opportunities -- the Tyler Anderson plan -- or if the Pirates are the only dog at the bowl. But it's not a destination city/franchise. The hope, of course, is to change that. But I don't see how Frazier factors in. He had a decent spring, didn't make the team, got a chance in season and went like 2 for 33 or something similar. I would argue he got too much runway rather than not enough.
Guest1
11:15
Why is Kai Tom's HBP rate so high? Does he crowd the plate and tend not to move out of the way?
Jason Mackey
11:16
Part of it, I think, is bad luck. But yeah, he does seem to be pretty stubborn that way. Given the limited sample size, though, I think it's tough to make any sort of broad determinations.
Mark Shaw Jr.
11:16
Question about Polanco.  He was obviously swinging the bat pretty well before the "slide"  What prevents him from recapturing that?  Is the shoulder too sore, too tight after the surgery when he swings?   Haven't other hitters come back from worse?  Thanks.
Jason Mackey
11:18
Hey Mark. I think it's the same as all players. Why don't they all hit all the time? It's a hard game. Even at its shortest, Polanco has a very long swing, a lot going on there. Which means there's a lot that can go wrong. I also don't think Polanco has ever had the greatest feel for the strike zone. I really don't think it has anything to do with his shoulder. The rest of him looks fine. Was moving on the run he scored on Stallings' double last night. Has actually played an OK right field, too. I just think his swing is inconsistent, and he tends to get out of his approach a decent amount, leading to chase.
PrinceBob
11:18
I know you have cited Ben Cherrington's hiring as evidence that when this rebuild is near completion BN will spend to get the team over the hump or BC wouldn't have taken the job. But how long is Cherrington's contract? He could be gone by then either because the contract is up or because BN hoodwinked him with assurances that he doesn't follow through with.
Jason Mackey
11:22
We don't know, but I would imagine no less than 3 years, maybe 4. I don't understand your reasoning. There's no win-the-division-in-3/4-years-or-you're-fired mandate. Also, why would Bob -- who you're undoubtedly going to tell me is super cheap -- spend 3-4 years of GM salary, only to repeat the entire process? And "hoodwinked him with assurances?" What does this mean? Do you think Ben -- who has been on three World Series winners and has done basically everything in baseball -- suddenly got tremendously stupid and was hypnotized by Bob's charisma? Again, I know people wanna get mad here and doubt Nutting. I'm fine with it, too. The narrative is theirs to deal with until they change it. But it is possible for Nutting to believe he screwed up, for Cherington to come in and do this right and for their to be a productive ending. Just seems like we're automatically assumed the world's worst outcome.
David
11:22
Robert Murray mentioned the other day that Hayes’ camp countered the Pirates offer in the offseason with Acuña’s contract. While I understand that the Pirates have leverage over him due to the pre-arb years, why would they not jump all over that and lock him up through his age-31 season? We are essentially an expansion franchise from a money-committed-in-the-future sense, and I’m hard pressed to think of too many other cornerstones around which it makes sense to build. Any chance we revisit this off-season, assuming we’ll then have a fuller season of games and data? Feels more like that kind of discount of his 2 FA years is going to seem like a pipe dream.
Jason Mackey
11:25
I think because the Pirates want to avoid spending money they don't have to spend. Doesn't make it right, and I don't agree with it. I also question the numbers on that. I know what the Pirates offered and where Hayes' camp sees his value, and I don't see Acuna's deal playing into that. But be that as it may, you said it: The Pirates have no incentive to bend over backwards here. Let Hayes put up numbers while you save as much as possible, then when you have to pay him, pay him. Just don't wait 4-5 years. Wait 1-2. I do think the Pirates will get something done. But it makes sense for them to wait, and unless it's a massive, massive deal, it doesn't make sense for Hayes to sign what wasn't a terribly rich offer.
To finish up the last part, yeah. I think they will revisit it this offseason.
Guest
11:25
In order to build up trust from the fans...signing Hayes long term should be part of the plan. I know the Pirates threw an offer at him and he turned it down. Has there been any other serious talks to getting this done? We know how waiting until the remaining arbitration years ends up. Sign Hayes now! Great PR and proof that your serious about being competitive into the future.
Jason Mackey
11:27
I agree with you, No. 1. But I think there's a cat-and-mouse game going on here, as I just described. One thing I will add: I've never heard an ounce of negativity from either side. They're just pretty far apart right now on their valuation of the player. I think that can and will change. But I think the Pirates would probably like to see a greater sample size before doling out what will likely be the richest contract in team history. As long as they eventually do sign Hayes, which I think they will, then I'm fine with waiting and trying to be as intentional as possible about determining his value.
PrinceBob
11:27
Last time I checked, Steven Wright had pretty good numbers in Indy. Do we ever see him in Pittsburgh and is he the last knuckle ball pitcher ever to play?
Jason Mackey
11:28
He has had good numbers, and yes, I do think we will see him in Pittsburgh before too long. I don't think he'll be the last. That's hard to say. But I do think that's become such a rare thing. I love it, though. I can't wait to see it up here. I've watched some on MiLB.TV, and it's hilarious.
Sunner in Orlando
11:28
Just saw a highlight of Mr. Meadows going deep for the 14th time this year and a 5 rbi night and I just imagine an outfield with Meadows in right instead of Polanco. That has to be the worst trade in all of baseball history correct? Or at least Pirate history?
Jason Mackey
11:29
Easily Pirates history. That's not a question. I would say it's top 5 in baseball history. Have said it's the worst. Probably a broad assertion there, but it is awful, yes.
Sunner in Orlando
11:29
What have the Rays done to stay competitive with a low payroll that the Pirates have not done. Is the Rays model the only way the Bucs compete? Will the MLB ever impose a salary cap floor to keep guys like nutting from not spending any money on upgrading his team while he rakes in profit and sees the value of his team grow to over a billion?
Jason Mackey
11:32
Last part first: I sure hope so. And I do think so. MLB has to look at the NFL and NBA and realize there's a way forward with the cap, guys can still get rich. And I don't think you can do a cap without a floor. So, yeah, I think I and I hope we'll see one. May also be wishful thinking. Ha. As for the Rays, what they've done so well is back-fill. Yeah, they lose guys to free agency or they make Blake Snell trades for players who they can't/won't sign longer-term. OK, that sucks, but they also draft incredibly well, they do well internationally, they develop incredibly well, and they back-fill those spots. You might lose some names, but how many random dudes -- especially pitchers -- have the Rays found who are absurdly good and seemingly come out of nowhere? The Pirates need to have a big slice of that. Doesn't have to be everything, but any successful small-market teams drafts, develops and trades well.
Danny
11:32
What would a Bryan Reynolds extension look like in your opinion? He’s currently Top 10 in WAR in the NL by both baseball reference and fangraphs
Jason Mackey
11:36
It's too hard to spitball, Danny. This could go any number of ways. I can't imagine Reynolds would do anything for less than like $5 million per, but even that may be crazy low. Typically one WAR is worth like $7-$9 million free agency agency. Reynolds has been worth 2.3 this season. Now, obviously he's achieving certainty, so it won't be $20 million per or anything like that. But you'd probably think at least, like, $30 M over five or $35 M over six, something like that. And again, I'm probably undershooting it.
mbk
11:36
Have they totally given up on the idea of Clay Holmes as a starter?
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