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Jason Mackey's Pirates chat: 06.25.21
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Jason Mackey
11:30
Hello, everyone, and welcome to my weekly Pirates chat. Sorry for the changed day, but I didn't want to do this during a game. Plus, I was traveling to St. Louis. So, here we are. Feel free to fire away. Will be back at noon to answer everything.
11:56
OK, let's get rolling. Little Pearl Jam today. Don't know what it is, but just feels right.
V. Fontaine
11:56
What would an extension for Bryan Reynolds look like? Seven years and $80MM?
Jason Mackey
12:00
I think that might be a little strong. Remember, Cutch was six years, $51.5 million, and an option for a seventh. The years there make sense. Buy out Reynolds' arb plus two free agency years. Your financial commitment is less because you theoretically would've paid his arb -- at least three times through -- anyway. Try to give a raise on that and maybe agree to something on the two FA years. But I think $80 million and seven years is probably high.
V. Fontaine
12:00
A player in Bradenton caught my eye while looking at the Marauders stats; Santiago Florez. His strikeout numbers jumped off the page. Do you have any insight on him?
Jason Mackey
12:02
Florez has been outstanding. Has the third-lowest ERA in ALL OF minor league baseball this season. Honestly, I don't know a ton other than the fact that he's been really good this season. Also 4-0 in June with 29 K and 5 BB. I know the slider is really good, but that doesn't paint a great picture. I plan on calling Jonathan Johnson (Low-A Bradenton manager) soon to learn more.
Jack
12:03
All the talk at the trade deadline centers around whether, "fill in the player's name", should be considered part of the team" when they are ready to compete".  As I see it, the first question to answer is not who will they trade, but when is the goal of being competitive.  With a lot of the recent talent acquisition being in AA or lower and several of the AAA players being hurt and out for the season, do you see the goal being pushed back another year?
Jason Mackey
12:05
This gets thrown around in an odd way. Like the Pirates are going to have a parade some February and say, "We're competitive!" The players are going to determine this. Say Oneil Cruz, Mason Martin, Rodolfo Castro, Roansy Contreras and a few others all pick up steam, dominate and impact the team in 2023, they might be competitive then. If their development lags, it'll take longer. I think we can safely say it won't be next season, or more than likely won't, but putting an exact time stamp on it is hard. That said, to answer your question, they have a general idea here based on contract status. Will "fill in the player's name" be under team control and potentially good enough to play on a better team? Those are the guys who should stay.
Cullen
12:05
Is there any chance that the Pirates are attempting to game the draft system by overvaluating other shortstops as a possible 1:1 pick to drive the asking price of their preferred player down so they can select them? For instance, they leak Meyer is their preference so that maybe Lawler, Leiter, or Davis' asking price drops?
Jason Mackey
12:07
I sincerely doubt it. I also haven't seen it "leaked" that Mayer was their preference. I've seen his name listed among a list of options, and he is. But their preference, to my knowledge, isn't accurate. If he's they're preference, they're drafting him. There's no one ahead of them. But it does come down to who they can sign and be smart about the bonus because they want to use that money in other areas of the draft.
Cullen
12:07
What are you hearing about Tahnaj Thomas this season? His potential seems extremely high, however his numbers don't seem to be there yet this year. Thanks!
Jason Mackey
12:08
Yeah, the walks have been an issue. All the talent in the world. He's athletic as all hell. But he needs to control his pitches more and attack. Not sure why that has been an issue, but it's been the root cause of some of his problems.
MikeZ
12:08
I have a Ke’Bryan Hayes rookie card I’d love for him to sign. Based on your knowledge of player schedules/access to fans, any advice?
Jason Mackey
12:08
Nope. Other than check the internet for local appearances, etc. I don't broker signings. I cover the team.
MikeZ
12:09
Your prediction: which team will make the playoffs next, Steelers or Pirates?
Jason Mackey
12:10
You bring up a good point. I'll say the Steelers, but there could be something interesting brewing here. What if the Pirates do get this figured out? The Steelers could be post-Ben, the Penguins perhaps approaching post-Sid. I'm not rooting for that stuff, mind you. But it's possible this push for the Pirates could come at a really good time for the city, if they can indeed make it happen.
MikeZ
12:10
Envisioning a rotation in a few years of Priester, Contreras, Thomas, Mlodzinski, Yajure, with Malone, Garcia, Jones also in the mix - that’s not pipedream cause for actual encouragement, even if a third of them whiff. Thoughts?
Jason Mackey
12:12
I'll take that in a heartbeat. Those are my thoughts. You have others, too. Like Michael Burrows, Omar Cruz, Eddy Yean and Braxton Ashcraft, too. Who knows. They won't all pan out, but a few should. Get enough of them, your percentage go up. The Pirates should also add talent with Frazier and Rodriguez deals. But to your point, yeah, there are reasons for optimism. At least I think so.
Matt from LA
12:12
Jason, assuming that Frazier is traded, who moves to second? Newman with Gonzalez going to short?
Jason Mackey
12:13
Good question. That's one option. If Phillip Evans is hitting more, maybe him. I'd say the most likely option, yeah, is Newman, with Gonzalez taking over at shortstop.
Matt from LA
12:13
Not that it really matters in the greater scheme of things with the Bucs, but we can't do any better than Tom or Gamble or even Evans in leftfield? Although not hitting much better, at least Newman is a very good shortstop and even Polanco hits for power occasionally.
Jason Mackey
12:15
You might be the one person in Pittsburgh who's OK with Polanco in right. I'm fine with Gamel. He's at .324 with three doubles and a HR while reaching base safely in each of his last 10 starts. Tom has no business on an MLB roster right now, IMO. Alford could be hurt. Oliva hasn't performed terribly well. Swaggerty is hurt, done for the year. Mitchell and Smith-Njigba aren't ready. So, yeah, it's close to the best they can do. Unless, of course, it's not terribly serious with Alford.
Goof Off
12:15
How soon do you think that we'll be respectable, ie, a .500 team? Who is YOUR pick at 1:1? I am high on Henry Davis, C and Marcelo Mayer?
Jason Mackey
12:16
I'm starting to come around on Davis. Seems the more eyeballs are on him, the more scouts like him. But I'm still going with Leiter. I can't not take pitching. I don't think that's what they're going to do. But if you ask what I would do, I'd go with Leiter.
Matt from LA
12:16
Although playing a little better than I expected (I don't see them losing 100 games as currently constructed), what will happen if they trade Frazier, Reynolds (God forbid!) and/or Rodriquez?
Jason Mackey
12:17
Well, they're going to lose games, for one. I think you could see Bednar become the closer. Or get more back-end opportunities. I think we might see Newman and Gonzalez as placeholders in the middle. They won't trade Reynolds. But other than being bad/worse, I'm not sure what else could happen.
woobie
12:17
Do you think Mayer, if he’s the pick at 1.1, takes anything at or under slot? And is there a standout tool the Pirates really like about him? Only asking because so many mocks mention cost and not what makes this guy potentially special.
Jason Mackey
12:20
A couple things: 1. From what I understand, the Pirates have pretty similar evaluations of all the top picks. 2. Mayer draws a lot of Corey Seager comps: plenty of power, good bat to ball skills, excellent defender. Should stick at shortstop, too. Would create an interesting situation with Liover Peguero, no doubt. And, I guess, Oneil Cruz. But you have a lot of talent there, and maybe someone could move.
Woobie
12:20
Is there a ballpark number on how many appearances Keller gets in AAA or could they conceivably keep in there all year if things don’t improve? And is the organization’s confidence in him as strong as they’re letting on publicly?
Jason Mackey
12:20
No, I don't think there's a set number. I think he needs to produce results. They also need to see more confidence and consistency out of him. Until those happen, I don't think he's coming back.
Dave
12:21
Hi Jason, any new thoughts or insights on the draft to share? Seems like the national writers have settled on Mayer as the pick but all the writeups make it sound like he's a placeholder almost. Do you think we've settled on a position player? I'm still hoping for Leiter, but if we're going position player and underslot, Davis and Watson seem more likely to fit the bill than Mayer/Lawlar. Are we simply in the waiting stage for bonus asks to line up, or do you expect there will be lots of back and forth right up until the moment the pick is announced?
Jason Mackey
12:23
I think the Pirates are very much in the thick of this. Any speculation to the contrary is exactly that. The only thing I know is that they have a list of about eight guys they would feel good taking at 1-1. From there, it depends on stuff. And, yeah, signability is one. Not so much can they sign a guy, but more what he wants and what that will allow them to use in the subsequent rounds. Mayer is in the mix. Leiter is in the mix. I do think they're likely going to employ the strategy of saving as much as possible and shifting those dollars to other parts of the draft -- I.e. spending over slot to get a greater volume of talent. But I think there's also plenty still to be determined.
Guest
12:23
Hey Jason! Any idea the feeling on El Coffee continuing to hood down RF after All-Star Game
Jason Mackey
12:25
i think you're probably going to see it, and I think fans are going to be mad about it. And I don't blame them. My thoughts on playing Polanco before revolved around this: Who's better? At that point, they really didn't have much. But -- now obviously last night's injury could change things -- I hate seeing Anthony Alford denied a shot because they're married to Polanco. Wanna see what's up with Alford. If he's OK, he deserves to be up here. I don't see how anyone would give up anything for Polanco right now, and the best player here should play.
Ben
12:25
Hey Jason love your work, I’ve heard so much about so many prospects, but one that already made his debut literally seems to have an extra base hit every night. Rodolfo Castro seems like such a consistent player that has a plethora of talent. What’s the game plan for him though as a third baseman that seems to be MLB ready by next year at most? Will we see him again this year becuase he seems so talented.
Jason Mackey
12:26
Hey Ben. Thanks for the kind words. Thanks for bringing up Castro. Just tweeted something about him earlier. Man, he's had a really good year. I don't know the succession plan for him position-wise, although I feel like I can confidently say, he won't be playing much third base at the major league level. That said, he's hitting the crap out of the ball. And if he does that, they'll find a way to get him in there somewhere.
And, yes, I think we will see him again this year, in September if not before.
Woobie
12:26
Do you think fans’ everyday excitement over prospects should come with a dose of reality? I’m in my 40s and remember a great collection of prospects in the late 90s-early 2000s (Benson, Hermansen, Ramirez, Nunez, Wright, Anderson, etc) and nothing came of it. Maybe I’m showing my age/grumpiness, but it seems like many younger fans aren’t considering that most of these guys won’t pan out.
Jason Mackey
12:28
Maybe. But it's not my job to program peoples' minds. I'm said and written it a lot: Not all of these guys will pan out. However, if you get enough of 'em, your chances are better. Also, Woobie, have less of a Pittsburgh mindset about this. Just because something happened before doesn't automatically mean it will happen again. Don't know why that happens so much here -- I'm born and raised here, remember -- but it does.
Ed
12:28
Any insight on why Brian Goodwin did not get a chance in the outfield with the Pirates? He is hitting well with the White Sox.
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