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Jason Mackey's Pirates chat: 06.30.21
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Jason Mackey
11:51
Hello, everyone. Welcome to my weekly Pirates chat. Gonna get started right away, as I have Zoom calls at 12:45 and 1 p.m. with Todd Tomczyk and Adam Frazier. I apologize, but I will have to hop off at that point to handle those. So, let's get started.
Norman "Chuck" Zimmerman
11:53
No question, just a comment if I may. Last week somebody asked about getting Ke'Bryan Hayes to sign a baseball card. Over the years I've had a decent success rate doing that sort of thing through the mail. The formula is this:
1. Make it easy for him. Send the card with a stamped, self-addressed envelope, so that all the player has to do is supply the pen, sign, enclose, and send.
2. Accompany it with a brief letter. Say please and thank you. Show some interest in what he's accomplished on the field, so that you come across as a fan and not a collector who's going to turn around and sell the card.
3. Don't ask him to walk around the clubhouse and get autographs from any other players.
4. Be patient. Some players respond right away and some don't.
Yes, there's always a risk that your baseball card doesn't get returned, but most of mine have gotten returned.
Thanks, Jason. I enjoy your coverage and the chats.
Jason Mackey
11:54
Great. I'm glad we got that out of the way.
Guest
11:54
Derek Fisher just got DFA’d.  Can’t be worse than Tom?
Jason Mackey
11:56
That would be hard, although I think we're making this harder than it has to be. How about Jared Oliva? Or give Cole Tucker another chance, although I'm also OK with him earning it. Will Craig has been hitting the ball well. If Colin Moran is out, move Phillip Evans to left. None of these are perfect, obviously. But neither is continuing to play someone who's what, 3 for 38 in June?
Rockpile
11:56
Do you remember when Pirates a few years ago selected the starting college pitcher Appel as their #1 pick?  And he turned their offer down flat? Got drafted by a different team the following year?  With the current MLB rules, could that happen again to any team including the pirates?
Jason Mackey
11:57
Sure. That's always a possibility. But I also don't think you're going to see it happen, at least not for the Pirates. Like it or hate it, I think part of their strategy is going to involve drafting someone they know they can sign -- albeit for less than slot, so they can use that money on other picks. But I think the Appel-type cases have become more and more rare.
Steve
11:57
Hi Jason. Newman has his defensive skills down. Any idea why the big average drop since 2019? In 2019 he and Reynolds were a one two punch batting. Would really like to see it again.
Jason Mackey
11:59
I know, Steve. You bring up a good point. It wasn't long ago that he consistently drove the ball. It has not been that way in a while. One thing I've noticed is how little Newman seems to use his lower half, which results in a lot of the weak contact. I feel like it wasn't that way in 2019. That said, his exit velocity and whatnot wasn't great in 2019; balls simply found holes. But he was more productive than he's been this season.
Rockpile
11:59
How is it that MLB leaves no salary floor for teams and as such no competitive balance showing how much they care about that but requires an all star representative from each time.  It is anachronistic.   Doesn’t quite reconcile.
Jason Mackey
12:00
As Ron Hainsey used to say, those are some big words for 10 o'clock in the morning, although I guess it's noon back home. Agree with you, though, simply on the basis of the fact that I think MLB should require a floor (and ceiling). I could care less about All-Star Games or how they do them, but the game would be much more interesting if the playing field was equal.
Joel
12:00
Jason, Pirate fans are rightly focused on and agonizing over the #1 overall pick. Got to get that one right. But I am really impressed with the results so far of Cherington’s first draft in 2020 —- lots of promise with only five selections. My point is that the draft is more than just the first round. The Pirates have the most dollars to spend and a great opportunity to add talent beyond just the #1 overall pick, as important as that is.
Jason Mackey
12:01
I agree with you, Joel. Just think for a second about the Pirates' top three picks in 2020: Nick Gonzales, Carmen Mlodzinski and Jared Jones. That could be really good. Do that again and again, and the Pirates may have something here. I have no issue with the spending below slot with a year like this and dumping those resources into your comp or second-round picks.
BVA123
12:02
I saw today on the MLB draft projections that Jack Leiter moved up to #2 while Mayer is #1 still. Have you heard anything on this? Keith Law said they are only on position players while other athletic writers have said they haven’t heard any of that being true. Do u think Leiter comes to Pittsburgh? I don’t think they will go wrong with either pick but just wondering
Jason Mackey
12:02
I'm not expecting them to go with Leiter. The name I've heard the most is Mayer, although I've also heard Davis and Frelick in play. I think the latter two are much less likely.
Matt from LA
12:02
Unlike the Pirate announcers who I know are paid by the Pirates, I greatly appreciate your honest and objective reporting/writing on the team. My question: Is there ever any repercussions from players or the manager when you tell it like it is?
Jason Mackey
12:05
I think the Pirates announcers do a great job, personally. And it's no different than the Penguins or any other pro team. They work for the team or have a contractual agreement to broadcast games, thus you're not going to hear a ton of negativity. However, I do love Phil Bourque, who's so passionate and honest that you can't help but respect what he does and let him do his thing, even if it's ripping someone. Anyway, with the Pirates, no. Not if you do it fairly and accurately and support it with numbers. There's no way the team likes everything I write. If they do, I'm not doing my job. But I hope they respect how much I care, the type of person I am and how much I put into doing this the right way. It's one of the reasons I work like a maniac because I never, ever want that sort of thing to be doubted.
BVA123
12:05
Also when should we expect to see Roasny Contreras, Quinn Priester, Cruz, Gonzalez etc. I know we won’t see Jared Jones for a bit
Jason Mackey
12:06
In the majors? It's far enough that a timeline is tough. Cruz maybe in September. Could see that. As a regular or more than a cameo, next season. The other guys, maybe 2024? Pushing it, 2023.
Rockpile
12:06
Did the Pirates recoop anything from not drafting signing Appel ie. Compensatory picks and when is the date that drafted players must sign with their teams by for this hear?
Jason Mackey
12:07
They got a comp pick the next year and used it on Austin Meadows, I believe. Believe the signing deadline is Aug. 1.
Joel
12:07
I still can’t get my head around ONeil Cruz being a long-term solution as shortstop, especially with the shortstop depth in the system. With the glaring lack of outfield talent, why not bite the bullet and put him in center or right and be done with it? This is one instance of player development that Cherington is getting badly wrong in my opinion.
Jason Mackey
12:09
They're having him work in the outfield now. Patience, Joel. Patience. There's a long way to go here. They needed to get his offense right and did.  They also wanted to give him a chance he can play the position. Maybe he can, maybe he can't. Guys make a lot of errors in the minors. Look up Derek Jeter's minor league stats. That said, I do see him as an outfielder, and they're starting to introduce that more. I don't see an issue personally.
GH
12:09
BRING BACK MAX!!
Jason Mackey
12:09
It'll take an injury at this point. Pitchers have to be down for 15 days.
DJS
12:09
Hesitating to ask about the draft given that we've covered this ground so much, but I keep wondering the extent to which a non-Leiter pick at 1.1 would almost be a bet against him as much as a bet on someone else. Granting that the other top ranked guys have plenty of reasons going for them, with the foundation of his fastball, Leiter still seems like he has a nice floor as a mid-rotation guy who can continue to get better. Do you think this is too narrow of a way to look at it? I understand the slot spreading strategy in the abstract, but what often goes unremarked upon is that when the Astros did it, they were able to develop Correa into a true superstar. Things might look different if you simply get a solid regular at 1.1, especially if we end up looking at a surprisingly competitive 2024 team around Hayes and Reynolds while Leiter makes his debut on another team. This seems especially the case given that we know we won't spend on a mid-rotation/+ starter in free agency.
Jason Mackey
12:11
I think you're reading too much into it. I think they like the upside of some of these other guys -- they're not alone -- and feel like the combination of  High Upside Guy + over-slot second-round pick is better than pouring all of those resources into Leiter. I think you're picking apart layers here that you don't really need to peel apart.
Rockpile
12:11
What is the average MLB fastball speed above which is good and below which is hittable?
Jason Mackey
12:12
Average fastball speed matters much less than what you do with it. Can you sink it? Does it have spin? Rise? Late movement? How's the control? Any run on it? I'd guess it's around 94 mph, but again, velocity is not everything. You see guys throwing 100 mph who get whacked and guys barely at 90 (Kyle Hendricks, for instance) who can be dominant.
Ross
12:12
Can you better explain and describe the signing for under slot at 1st overall to save money down the line strategy for those that don’t understand? Seems like a lot of people are perceiving this to be like they’re going to be drafting and reaching for the likes of Tony Sanchez, Daniel Moskos, Cole Tucker, etc for “signability” like how things sometimes were pre slot and spending pool
Jason Mackey
12:14
Here we go again ... all picks in MLB are slotted. Not required, but recommended. Teams also have a set number of dollars to spend on the draft. The Pirates will spend all of theirs. What you're doing is basically saying, "We're going to avoid paying here, so we can pay there." This makes sense because, in 2021, there are about eight players who most evaluators believe are relatively equal. So you're missing less by going under slot (and using that money elsewhere). Make sense?
Jordon
12:14
I think everyone would rather see Hayes and Reynolds be building blocks for the future. But, how much better of a return could the Pirates expect for either of those guys over Frazier or Rodriguez?
Jason Mackey
12:15
They could get a lot more based on years of control alone, but sooner or later the Pirates -- in my opinion -- need to put a stake in the ground and say to their fans, "OK, he's gonna be here. It's OK to buy his jersey. And, yeah, we're serious about this." I'm OK with a cycle of trading guys who reach free agency if you have the appropriately back-fill, but we're not there with those guys. You're only setting back the process.
Gus
12:15
How is spin rate measured?
Jason Mackey
12:17
I don't want to botch the wording on anything here. From MLB.com:  pitcher's Spin Rate represents the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute.
The amount of spin on a pitch changes its trajectory. The same pitch thrown at the same Velocity will end up in a different place depending on how much it spins. (For instance, a fastball with a high Spin Rate appears to have a rising effect on the hitter, and it crosses the plate a few inches higher than a fastball of equal Velocity with a lower Spin Rate. Conversely, a lower Spin Rate on a changeup tends to create more movement.)
"The pitch was spinning at a rate of X rpms"
Gus
12:17
I doubt we’d get anything substantial back, but can Polanco’s power be intriguing to a team in a trade?
Jason Mackey
12:18
It might be intriguing, sure. But it's been intriguing for a decade. What has come of it? I do think a team might take a chance on Polanco, if the Pirates are willing to eat a ton of money. Maybe you give up a lower-level guy. There could be a deal there, but it won't be a substantive one. And the Pirates can't possibly save much on his salary.
Northrup
12:18
Hey Jason.  If the Pirates draft the catcher Davis, is there a pitcher they like with their second pick?  Thanks.
Jason Mackey
12:19
I don't think they would automatically go pitcher in the second round, but honestly, I've seen Will Bednar projected in that range on a couple mocks. They could do a lot worse.
Gus
12:19
Do you think Ben is waiting for the trade deadline to do a roster overhaul? Meaning, at very least replacing Tom and Polanco?
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