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Jason Mackey's Pirates chat: 07.09.21
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Jason Mackey
11:42
Hello, everyone. Welcome to my weekly Pirates chat. Stupid game bumped us from Wednesday but still plenty to discuss. Feel free to fire away now. Will be back at noon to answer everything.
12:02
And away we go ...
Guest1in SF
12:02
Back to the Ka ai Tom “experiment”, under Rule 5 if the Pirates wanted to remove him from the 25 man roster wouldn’t Tom first have to clear waivers? And then, presuming no team claimed him, wouldn’t the Pirates have to give Cleveland the opportunity to pay the Pirates $50k to take him back onto their roster. Absent Cleveland doing just that, wouldn’t he be released and the Pirates required to pay him  100% of his major league minimum salary ($571,000) as termination pay from the Pirates? I’m just baffled that the Pirates are continuing to keep him on the roster, especially in the midst of injuries and multiple roster transactions, and wondering if these seemingly low financial considerations (to me) are guiding the Pirates here. I’m anxious for the Pirates to cut ties with Tom and to use that roster spot to provide opportunities for other prospects from the minors.  I just don’t see sufficient MLB level skills from him.
Jason Mackey
12:04
I can tell you for sure that financial considerations are not guiding what the Pirates are doing with Ka'ai Tom. Now, I don't agree with it. I don't think he belongs on a major league roster, but I don't think it has anything to do with money. Are they trying to ride out his Rule 5 stuff because they think he might be good one day and know they aren't? Maybe. Do they think he might actually be a decent player? Perhaps. But I don't see what the financial motivation would be here.
Don
12:05
Have you heard anything on Bryan Reynolds on the trade front?
Jason Mackey
12:05
Not a thing. Nor do I expect to hear anything. The idea that they should trade him was, and continues to be, insane, outside speculation. They're not interested.
Danny
12:05
Fangraphs updated their farm system rankings and has the Pirates third behind the Rays and Blue Jays. Is it realistic they could be #1 between the draft this year, what’s sure to be a Top 5 pick next year and some trades?
Jason Mackey
12:06
Completely realistic. And, honestly, I don't know how they don't get there on opportunity alone. Think about what they have a chance to add over the next month. No. 1 overall pick. If they go under slot, perhaps two more big adds. Then traded for Frazier, Rodriguez and Anderson? Say what you want about them now. That should lead to a very nice infusion of talent.
Nathaniel
12:06
Hey Jason.  Who are some of your realistic targets with the 37th pick?
Jason Mackey
12:11
I want Will Bednar to fall. He's not gonna. I also typically preface this by pointing out that a lot can happen in there. One guy I've seen go in that range who intrigues me is Adrian Del Castillo, the Miami catcher. At the beginning of the season, he was a top 5 talent. Didn't have a very good year. Also some concerns whether he'll stay behind the plate. But if Pirates scouts were convinced he would hit and could fix his throwing motion, he intrigues me. Also like Ethan Wilson, he's a guy I chatted about with Carlos Collazo from Baseball America. Similar to Nick Gonzales. Others for me include OF Jud Fabian from Florida and Chase Petty and Gage Jump, a pair of high school pitchers. Jump is a lefty, and they need more of those.
Jason
12:11
Good Afternoon Jason, there seem to be conflicting reports regarding the potential package the Pirates may get back for Frazier. Heyman told the PM team that he thinks it will be a goos prospect and then a high ceiling lower level guy. Other reports are saying that the asking price for him is sky high which makes me think that depending on the team it is either a top 100 prospect, or a teams top prospect. Any thoughts on this?
Jason Mackey
12:19
I have a lot of thoughts, yeah. I saw Heyman's comments. Maybe that's the ask, I don't know. Typically what you can get for a guy is what another team is willing to give up. And they were willing to give up a top 50 prospect, I don't know why this trade happened yet. That tells me other teams are not willing to give that up. Maybe they do, but man, that's a lot. I can see a top 100 guy. ... Think about this: When Starling Marte was traded, he had been worth 29.5 bWAR at that point. Frazier has been worth 10.0. Marte did not net a top 100 prospect, although Peguero has subsequently joined that group. I just find it hard to believe that a guy who has done a third of what Marte did will net a top 50 guy.
Jon
12:21
Hello Jason. I know Reynolds isn’t gonna be traded. But who says no to Reynolds to the Indians for Tyler Freeman and Bo Naylor?
Jason Mackey
12:22
Likely the Indians, I would imagine.
Stephen
12:22
Adam Frazier to the Mets for Francisco Alvarez. Let’s make this happen!
Jason Mackey
12:23
There ya go. Maybe throw in Francisco Lindor as a sweetener. Could add Francisco Cervelli, Cabrera and Liriano, too.
Guest1in SF
12:23
With the promising start by John Nogowski, would it be a shock to see the Pirates aggressively try to move Colin Moran by the trade deadline?j
Jason Mackey
12:25
Shock wouldn't begin to describe it. Also, it makes zero sense to try and trade a first baseman with a limited track record of production (.2 career bWAR, while I have it open) after he suffered his fourth injury in less than two months. It's OK to wait. And they sure aren't going to push Moran out because of John Nogowski, even though I'm a big Nogo fan at this point. He's hilarious. Awesome story.
DJ
12:25
Jason, despite my early reservations about chasing a catcher, I was with you with the Davis discussion on the podcast the other day. For me, his appeal seems to be a mix of ceiling and floor: great carrying tools with the power and hit/patience. The defense all sounds like stuff that can be improved, so when you add in potentially the most underslot, it seems like he checks the most boxes while happening to play a generally scarce position where we are thin. For me, unless the scouts are banging on the table that one of the prep guys will be a star, he seems like the best option (though I am still holding out hope for the surprise in Leiter).
Jason Mackey
12:26
I would not hold out hope for Leiter, but I understand where your head is at. Ultimately, I think I would have a tough time not taking Mayer, assuming it makes sense. The more I study him, man, there's a lot to like with how projects, his attitude, etc. Not that there isn't with Davis, but to my point earlier, I think I like the combo of Mayer-Del Castillo more than I do Davis-???. I think.
Allyson
12:26
Hi Jason. Put your GM cap on. What’s your prediction of team Adam Frazier gets traded to, and who we get back from that team. Thank you!
Jason Mackey
12:29
Hey Allyson. I think one of my kids stole my GM cap. I think my top three for Frazier would probably be the White Sox, Giants and Blue Jays, in no particular order. The White Sox might have the greatest need, but I worry about the depth of their system. I think Toronto makes a lot of sense, because of the familiarity there. I also can see Frazier really helping the Giants, an old school player for an old school team. I think he would fit in very well there.
12:30
What comes back? Really hard to say. I do think we're going to see a similar deal to what we saw with a couple this offseason. Younger, high-upside guys. Maybe a top 100, although I'd be stunned if it was top 50. Would imagine them wanting to build some outfield depth. Always pitching.
Joel
12:30
Gut sense: who are the Pirates going to take at 1-1? (Or are you saving this for a Sunday article???)
Jason Mackey
12:31
Ha. Not saving anything. Gut sense would be Mayer. But I don't feel great about that. I really think this is gonna go down to the wire. Not just the pick but conversations between the Pirates and players leading up to it.
Logan
12:31
Richard Rodriguez and Tyler Anderson to the Blue Jays for Gabriel Moreno. Who says no?
Jason Mackey
12:32
This is much more believable than the last who-says-no one. I do think the Pirates would want more than a two-for-one deal involving those guys, however.
Just a fan
12:32
So when does the Polanco era come to an end? Hasn’t that time now come upon us?
Jason Mackey
12:33
I think we could be close. I think they were riding it out, hoping to trade him. That's gonna be really tough. Maybe they still try, hope he comes back and try to get something, anything for him. If they take back money, and a lot of it, I think they might be able to get a low-level prospect. I suppose that's better than DFA'ing him but not by much.
Joel
12:33
Mason Martin is slugging over .600 but he has struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances. This sounds like Brad Eldred redux to me. Can he really make enough contact to be a true contributor in the majors?
Jason Mackey
12:34
I've watched both play. Mason Martin does not look like Brad Eldred 2.0, no. He's much more athletic. Smaller in size. A more consistent approach with his swing. Better defensively. Martin had a lousy stretch after a decent start, and now he's punching back. I think his numbers are a little skewed.
Munkeefist
12:36
I looked at Mitch Keller's AAA stats the other night and they looked very good. Have you heard any reports on his progress there? I'm hoping we are not looking at another Tyler Glasnow type that tears up minor league hitters and then struggles when he puts that Pirates uniform on.
Jason Mackey
12:37
I have, yes. And they've been quite good. He's throwing more strikes. He's more aggressive, doing a better job controlling his fastball. I think it was a lot mental with him. I think he's probably getting to a place where it's OK to try it out again with the major league club. I understand the concern. It's valid. However, I will say, the Pirates are doing the right stuff with Mitch. Whereas I blamed the organization a lot for Glasnow, I don't think it's the same for Keller.
Joel
12:38
With Gamel playing something resembling professional league average baseball, have we seen the last of Ka’ai Tom? I certainly hope so. Not to pick on the guy but he encapsulates for me the disastrous state of the team at the big league level.
Jason Mackey
12:39
We'll see. I think it depends on what other guys do, what they do with Polanco, etc. Right now Gamel deserves to play. Obviously Reynolds isn't going anywhere. Does Jared Oliva do anything? Hasn't yet. Does Alford get hot? They have some time. I hope someone else takes that spot because I agree with you. But that's been one of the issues for them -- no one has.
EV in Melbourne
12:39
HI Jason,  Thank you for your insights, and others thoughts as well, that this platform offers.  When competitive baseball returns in 3 or 4 years, will Shelton be around?  Or is he a caretaker like John Russell was?
Jason Mackey
12:40
I think that's still TBD. We're looking at Russell with hindsight. I think they're looking at Shelton right now and evaluating. He could. But I also don't think they're married to it. I also don't know how I feel personally because the guy has managed less than a full season with a terrible roster. Not exactly a fair grading scale.
V. Fontaine
12:40
Can you provide some insight on how much cash changes hands when teams trade a player for cash considerations?
Jason Mackey
12:40
Believe GM's stock each other's soda machines. For three years at a time.
David
12:41
Have you heard anything about Colton Cowser being in play for 1.1? He seems right in the same mix with Frelick, and models apparently like him a lot. Their profiles read similarly to me, with Cowser having a bigger frame and maybe standing out more with the hit tool than Frelick, whose speed is what stands out.
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