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Jason Mackey's Pirates chat: 07.21.23
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Jason Mackey
11:38
Hey everyone. Thanks for joining my weekly chat. Will be back in about 20 minutes to answer any questions you might have.
12:05
OK, let's do this ...
Mike Benjamin Fan Club
12:05
If this season continues as it has been recently, I don't see how the organization thinks that Derek Shelton the right person to lead this team next season. I try to be a patient fan and give mangers and players quite bit of leeway to improve. But at some point, you have to see the improvement via wins, and from my perspective, we are just about there. I'm anxious to see how the rookies play the rest of the way, and if they show positive, measurable steps forward, then its fair for Shelton to start next season as the manager. Otherwise, its time to hire a new one, preferably one with previous experience as an MLB manger.
Jason Mackey
12:07
Thanks, Mike. ... Couple things. 1. I think we need to wait until the end of the season to make final judgements. Not defending anything, but as 20-8 should tell us, a lot can and probably will change. 2. That said, if they lose 100 games or come close, yeah, that should be cause for concern. For Shelton. For Cherington. For Andy Haines and the offense. For players. For Bob Nutting. 3. When you say amid the good times that the goal is improvement and winning more games, that doesn't go away if you suddenly stink again.
Mike Benjamin Fan Club
12:07
I appreciated your article on the Pirates TV situation. But in the words of Dennis Miller, I don't want to go on a rant here but MLB putting local games exclusively on streaming services such as Apple TV and Peacock is irritating at best and highway robbery at worst. Two games this past weekend? If the Pirates or MLB want to go subscription only, that's fine. I'll gladly subscribe to a streaming service to get all 162 games minus national network/ESPN games. But this is just another way for MLB to extract more money from the average fan. Thats just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Jason Mackey
12:08
I don't disagree with your assessment. It's dumb. And unfair to fans. Tweeted as much on Sunday.
Hank
12:08
Do you see the Pirates changing their philosophy when it comes to hitting? The last season and half with Haines and being patient has for the most part not worked. Or do you see them changing the voice (Haines) and still trying this  with someone else?
Jason Mackey
12:09
Sadly, no. And I think they need to. I think it's hurting them. They've become far too passive at the plate. ... This seems to be an organization-wide thing. Not excusing Haines by any stretch, but the problem isn't just him. It's trying to push a philosophy without having the proper personnel to do it. Sound familiar?
Cullen B
12:09
Good Morning, Jason, thanks for the chat! Will the Pirates ever disclose how long Shelton's extension was? Some of his decisions are baffling and it was very frustrating watching him leave Priester in just to get shelled when he looked like he had lost it.
Jason Mackey
12:11
Probably not, but my understand is that it's two years on top of the current one. Why they're so secretive with this stuff, I'll never know. I could probably learn someone's social security number easier. But that's my understanding of its length. That said, I don't have an issue with what he did there. Let the kid learn. Why are we trying to over-protect pitchers? Is it ruining the pennant chase? His pitch count wasn't dangerous. I don't understand why I'm supposed to get mad at Shelton over this.
*understanding
Cullen B
12:11
Jason, if the Pirates did fire Haines mid-season, are there any viable replacements interanally or externally who would even be an upgrade?
Jason Mackey
12:11
Jon Nunnally -- minor league hitting coach and someone who knows all these guys ... they also love him -- would be my choice. I'd also be surprised if they made a move in-season.
Matt
12:12
I was hoping for a more complete understanding of the framing metric.  I know you said it's determined from cameras placed around the park, but what are the cameras looking for, and is there a way that the ball/strike calls are determined to be influenced by the catcher and not the umpires bias?
Jason Mackey
12:14
I can explain pitch-framing to you and how it works, but I can't explain to you the math behind FanGraphs' calculation of framing runs or the same for Baseball Savant. I'm not sure anyone can. But it's basically the idea of having borderline pitches and flipping them into strikes. There's inherently umpire bias to that. How a catcher receives the ball -- where he catches it in his glove ... does he yank or rip as opposed to a softer movement ... holding the glove there ... elbow up or elbow down/angle of the glove ... where a catcher is setup vs. where the pitches comes in ... what the umpire can see ... umpires' tendencies' and leveraging them (picking more at the outside, say, if an umpire is inclined to give that pitch). There's a ton. But I can't tell you how they arrive at xxx.xxx framing runs saved. That's their secret sauce.
DaquidoBazzini
12:14
Why is it that the Pirates seem to get so many games on Apple TV or Peacock? It's really not right for those of us (like myself) that have purchased the MLB season package.
Jason Mackey
12:15
My guess would be that they play fewer games on traditional national broadcasts (ESPN, FOX) and that's a way to get them out there? I don't know. But it's not the Pirates choice, though they'll probably take all the attention they can get. Agree that it's unfair to fans.
RS
12:16
What is your opinion on the deadline moves the pirates can make? I don't see any of the one year contract guys bringing much back in return besides lower level prospects that won't help for a few years if at all. Do you see a scenario where Bednar gets traded for something that may help a little sooner? Its great having a lock down closer, but what is his value to the pirates if he only has save opportunity every couple weeks? Thank you for the chats!
Jason Mackey
12:17
I would not trade Bednar. If you're trying to build something ... or even if you think you're going to build something ... then that's silly. You're irritating your fan base. You're giving them every reason not to trust you. Now, if they're looking at like two top-100 guys, one in the top-50 and more. That's different. But I don't think they're getting that. ... On the other note, wouldn't surprise me if Hill, Santana, Choi and Hedges are all gone. And, yes, I do think they can trade Hedges.
DaquidoBazzini
12:17
What's your current assessment of Bryan Reynold's health? Do you think him and Hayes will be with the Pirates by next August?
Jason Mackey
12:18
I think he's dealing with lingering back issues and they have impacted his performance. That's not making excuses. Just what I've seen Bryan to maintain and how I've seen him swing before. ... And, yes, I do. I don't think they're going anywhere.
Cullen B
12:19
If the Pirates do finish in the bottom 7, we would not be eligible for a top 7 pick due to the new draft lottery rules, correct?
Jason Mackey
12:19
See the Callis tweet in here: https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-rule-changes-with-new-cba
12:20
Top six picks are determined by lottery. The 18 non-playoff teams technically have a shot at getting into the top-six, but not a good one: https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-rule-changes-with-new-cba
D9Dave
12:21
Do you see the Pirates trying Davis or Rodriguez at first base particularly if they trade Santana at the deadline? Seems to be an easier transition for a catcher to play first base rather than corner outfield.
Jason Mackey
12:21
I could see them trying Endy there but not Henry. He has never played that position before. Endy has, some. I also think Jared Triolo could be an option there if he continues playing well, Hayes returns, and they need someone at first base.
BuccoBats
12:22
If there is a strong market for Bednar at the deadline, what would be a realistic return if the Pirates were to trade him?
Jason Mackey
12:23
I can't, Bucco Bats. Not to be a jerk, but realistic return is whatever someone is willing to give up. There's no sensible answer I can give you. I know if I was Ben Cherington, I would shut anything down that didn't start with multiple top-100 prospects. Would have to be a deal EVERYONE considered a no-brainer for me to do it.
NuttingHostage
12:23
Will Bob Nutting ever sell the team? It is clear that he has no clue how to run a professional sports team judging by past results and the horrible culture he has created.
Jason Mackey
12:23
I don't have any sense that Nutting is interested in selling the team, no.
Al Scott
12:23
No one seems to talk much about J T Brubaker’s pitching future in Pittsburgh.  What do you think?
Jason Mackey
12:24
I don't think anyone knows, Al. He's mid-TJ, a long way from returning. I think he could be a very good reliever. He also has a history of elbow issues. Not sure he has a spot here as a starter. And given his arb number, I don't know whether it makes sense to bring him back period. But given their lack of bullpen options, I think I would ride it out and see what he looks like post-TJ.
D9Dave
12:24
Why does Shelton bat Suwinski lead off when he is a home run or strike out kind of hitter?  Shouldn’t he bat in the 4,5, or 6 hole?
Jason Mackey
12:25
Shelton likes that he typically sees a bunch of pitches. He does walk a lot. They also don't have a stereotypical leadoff man. Shoot, they didn't Oneil did it. Agree with you, though. I'd rather have Suwinski hitting 4-5-6.
J$Money
12:25
In your opinion, do the Pirates have:
Jason Mackey
12:25
No, they don't.
George Costanza
12:25
Do you believe the timeline of the bucs competing for a playoff spot has been pushed back a few more years, yet again?
Jason Mackey
12:26
No, I don't, George. I think it depends on the development of the young guys. We don't know. What if they're actually good from here out? Then you have a nice nucleus. If they stink, then, yeah. It's pushed back. But I don't think we know enough either way at this point.
Dave
12:26
Hi Jason, appreciate the chat. I have a hard time agreeing that Hill should be dealt. Besides the likely middling return, my main reason for thinking this is the depth and general health of pitchers. This has been abysmal in August and Sept of previous years, and we see injuries pile up and guys losing velocity. Unless we get aggressive on Jones, there’s also no one to step in. Sorry for the comment non-question, but I guess my concern is future effects beyond 2023. Just doesn’t seem worth it, unless we picked up another player to eat innings. I agree that the games have ceased to matter beyond development.
Jason Mackey
12:29
I hear you, Dave. There's a valid argument there. But my counterarguement would be this: What if the 43-year-old winds up getting hurt? He has averaged 24 starts per season the past four years. He has already made 20 and will have made 21-22 by decision time. It's a gamble, sure, but if there's any return at all, I'm still doing it.
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