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Jason Mackey's Pirates chat: 09.16.20
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Jason Mackey
11:29
Hello, everyone. Thanks for stopping by my weekly Pirates chat. We'll get started at noon, but feel free to ask your questions now.
12:04
OK, sorry for the brief delay. My wife was literally cutting onions, and I couldn't see. Let's do this.
Joey
12:05
The low batting averages of several of the Pirate's key players is beyond concerning.  Can you attribute this to any specific factors such as the shortened season, lack of crowds for motivation, etc? I feel like we can't blame this on coaching. if anything, less games should equal a higher batting average to me, as you typically see early on with players in a normal season.
Jason Mackey
12:10
Hi Joey. While I can't say I can blame it on any one thing, I certainly would not absolve coaching. The strikeouts are certainly a problem. Their K% of 24.3 is the worst in the history of the franchise, the same for their swinging strike percentage (12.7). They're swinging at 32.3% of pitches outside the zone, which is the second-worst mark in franchise history, so you could likely conclude that they're swinging at too many bad pitches and missing 'em. There have been other factors, of course. Slumps. Slow starts. All of it happening at once.
Bucco Neil
12:10
Yesterday when you wrote about Gregory Polanco's inability to hit fastballs you wrote (correct me if I'm wrong) that no one really knows why. When I see that long,looping uppercut of a swing he has I cannot imagine how he can get to a high fastball, especially an inside one. I would imagine hitting coaches see that same swing but I gather they don't see it as the problem?
Jason Mackey
12:12
I quoted Ben Cherington saying they don't know why. I would agree with the long and loopy swing, and Gregory has even talked about that being a root cause of his struggles. Why he has been unable to shorten his swing is a bigger mystery. (And I know that Angry Pirates Fans will tell me he's a poor fundamental baseball player. Whether he is or isn't, shortening your swing is not a complex adjustment; thus, pretty much everyone should be able to make it.
Jeff
12:12
Good afternoon!
Jason Mackey
12:12
Good afternoon, Jeff. Just wanted to say hello.
Jeff
12:12
Good afternoon.  How would you grade Derek Shelton's performance in his first year of managing under unprecedented circumstances?  Is he getting the most from his players?
Jason Mackey
12:14
Now to your question ... Second part first: no. I don't know how I could say otherwise, honestly, given their terrible record. One concerning thing for me is the fundamentals that the Pirates still stink at. OK, you lack power. OK, you lack pitching. You need to spend money, and they're not doing that. I can't blame having a different strata of players on Shelton. But they can run out grounders. They make routine plays. They can run the bases. They can not try to advance to third with nobody out or two outs and run themselves out of an inning. They do an incredible amount of stupid stuff that simply should not happen. So, that, I put a lot on Shelton. But I also think we need to give him something of a pass because the margin for error -- thanks to their budget -- is paper thin, the same with the organization's depth.
Blake cederlind
12:14
What kind of future do you think I have? Also will I make the team next year?
Jason Mackey
12:15
You damn well better, Blake. I see you as the future closer of this team. Heck, you might be the current one.
Ron J
12:15
Good Morning Jason . Why don’t the Pirates just let Polanco go away ?
Jason Mackey
12:19
Because it would cost them a lot of money. Here's the breakdown of that: Polanco is obviously due the balance of his salary for 2020. His salary for 2021 is $11 million. They must pay that. Baseball salaries aren't like they are in football. They're guaranteed. So, yeah, they can let Polanco go away, but they would have to pay him. (Functionally, they could designate him for an assignment. If a team wanted to work out a trade, they could. But ask yourself: Do you see that happening?) So they have to pay Polanco one way or another in 2021. After next season, they can buy him out for $3 million. Hard to imagine they won't do that. And, shoot, in some markets, they might just pay a guy $14 million to go away now, which they conceivably could do. But Bob Nutting rarely -- if ever -- pays someone $14 million to play for the Pirates. I don't see him paying someone that amount of money not to play for his team. They're gonna keep Polanco, keep running him out there and hope he figures it out.
And we're all going to be forced to watch.
Ricky
12:19
What’s your opening day lineup prediction? Do you think Reynolds and Newman had flume years last year or are they just in a bad stretch
Jason Mackey
12:21
I'm not sure of the difference between fluke -- assuming that's what you meant -- years and a bad stretch in a 60-game season, but here's how I would answer that: The Pirates don't have enough organizational depth to nudge either out of their plans for 2021. Reynolds will play. Their outfield simply isn't good enough right now to nudge him out of a spot. Hayes needs to play, obviously. I don't think Cruz, Peguero or Gonzales are ready, meaning Newman should at least find himself in a three-man rotation with Gonzalez and Frazier, provided they don't move either this offseason. Bottom line, they're still in the mix.
Ricky
12:21
Thoughts on Anthony Alford? Opening day CFer?
Jason Mackey
12:22
Absolutely could be. I liked what he brought. I think it will be an interesting competition -- unless they sign someone -- between him and Cole Tucker during spring training. I'd like to see Jared Oliva get a shot. I think he could be in the mix, too. But to this point, the organization has shown little to no interest in doing that.
Joc pederson
12:23
The pirates should sign me next year. I think I would do real good here being a lefty power bat
Jason Mackey
12:24
You're hitting .174 with six home runs and 12 RBIs. Polanco is at .138 with five home runs and 16 RBIs. I'm all for upgrading that spot, but I'm not sure how much this does that.
Rich
12:24
Last night was maybe the fifth or sixth game where a Pirate starter went six innings, I believe. (I'm not counting) but it seems that it's been rare for starters to go even five innings. I know the complete game is almost extinct but if they get this sort of performance next year half the bullpen will need arm amputations by August. All of these guys show promise at times but no consistency and they are young but not rookies. Injuries have been a problem but we have no reason to believe that will change. Maybe this improves when Taillon comes back but that's uncertain and even if he is good, he's fragile. Hope aside, is there any reason to think the starting pitching will be noticeably better next year?
Jason Mackey
12:30
Couple things. One, Joe went five last night, not six. Secondly, Pirates starters have gone six innings just four times this season, the lowest in the majors. Amazingly, Trevor Williams -- who's 1-7 -- has accounted for three of those. But to attack your other points ... your right. Starters go deeper into games. I believe that number (average 4.7 IP per start in 2020) is the lowest in history. If not, it's darn close. On other teams, it's because they build strong bullpens and rely on those arms. Not so much for the Pirates, who average 4.3 IP/GS. (Only three are worse.)
12:32
So, yeah, with the Pirates, it's ... not great. They have guys with stuff (Kuhl, Brubaker) and also potential (Keller). Musgrove, Williams and Brault have been all over the place with performance. Taillon has been very good and injured. There's certainly hope, but there's also some frightening aspects to the whole thing as well because their bullpen will lose Kela, who knows what happens with Crick, Feliz and Burdi are coming off season-ending injuries, Santana is still TBD (and won't have pitched in two years).
405322
12:32
Why send Martin down?....he is our future...dump Riddle!
Jason Mackey
12:34
I'm fine with dumping Riddle, but Martin is 0-for-7 this season with three strikeouts, and he's a career .209 at this level, with two extra-base hits and a 26.5% strikeout rate in 49 plate appearances. Not sure he's solidified that future status with his performance. Has been good running the bases and playing defense. Will give him that.
Gabe
12:34
If Josh Bell continues to turn it around at the plate, do u think that improves the odds he’s traded this offseason?
Jason Mackey
12:36
No, I don't. And I fail to understand the urgency of the fan base to do this. He's under contract for two more years. He's one of the few legitimate draws they have, although I can't sit here and say he should be playing first base every day. But as long as the DH stays in the National League, which I believe it will, I think it makes sense to keep him and let him do this for another season. I'd still try to sign him. But if they know they can't, they still have plenty of time.
Sean from Cumberland MD
12:36
Will Polanco, Frazier or Bell be with a new team next year?  They have to have better production from that side of the field next year to keep fans interested in games. It is mbaraasing to watch a pirate who plays RF whiff 3 times in one game.
Jason Mackey
12:37
I think Frazier could be. The other two, no. I covered the Polanco situation in depth above, and I sort of just handled the Bell stuff. I don't think a good final month is enough to get Bell's value to where it could or should be with a trade. And again, like I said, there's really no urgency here, other than from the fan base.
Guest
12:37
Hey, Jason! In the past few days Oscar Marin's name seems to be popping up more frequently as a scapegoat for this season, given the woeful state of starting pitching and the promise that new technology was going to help things out. But there's the improving bullpen to consider as well. How much of an impact do you think that he's had either way?
Jason Mackey
12:38
I don't think it's fair to blame all of this on Oscar, and I don't think it would be fair to credit everything to him if things were going really well. Like Shelton, I think there's a lot of TBD in here. They need more talent, better players. If Marin or others screw those up, then I think you can flip out. But right now we're talking about roughly 45 games with a bad roster. Have a tough time scapegoating the pitching coach for that.
Dan
12:38
Is Colin Moran's wayward jock costing the Pirates a run the perfect metaphor for this season?
Jason Mackey
12:39
No. I'd go with the drone or the standoff in the parking lot in Kansas City.
Matthew
12:39
I know everyone has a lot of critiques with the Pirates over the course of this season, but does anyone see any part of any good coming up for the next few years with the Pirates? For example, the young guys in the rotation and 'pen have shined, in my opinion. (Sam Howard, JT Brubaked, Cody Ponce, Mitch Keller, Nik Turley, Nick Burdi, Blake Cederlind, etc.). How can people not be excited for the season with all of the young arms coming up through the system?
Jason Mackey
12:40
I see your point, Matthew. And while I think this might be a little too over-exuberant for the worst team in baseball, it's also not wrong that a couple guys you mentioned have been exciting. The Pirates do have some pieces. They just don't have nearly enough.
Gabe
12:41
Is there any doubt Brian Reynolds is still a vital part of this team’s future despite his struggles this season?
Jason Mackey
12:41
I still see him as part of the future. If for no other reason than he doesn't really have anyone pushing him out of a spot.
Matthew
12:41
Also, why is the offense sturggling? Do you have any tell-tale sign why they are struggling? To me it looks like the offense is swinging at worse pitches, but is there anything else?
Jason Mackey
12:42
I mean, a lot of things, but swinging at bad pitches is definitely something. Covered that before. There have been slumps at bad times, which I know isn't a sexy answer. But honestly, some of these guys have really been pressing and putting a ton of pressure on themselves. Doesn't excuse anything. They haven't been good enough, plain and simple. But it's certainly not for lack of effort.
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