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Jason Mackey's Pirates chat: 12.30.20
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Jason Mackey
11:32
Hello, everyone, and welcome to my weekly Pirates chat. We'll get started at noon, but feel free to fire away with questions now -- baseball, music, whatever.
12:00
And with a little Grateful Dead Reckoning on the ol' headphones, let's get going ...
Guest
12:00
Should the Pirates trade the prospects they will receive in the Bell trade before they join the team? It would save a lot of aggravation
Jason Mackey
12:01
Guess we're starting with some snark. This is a tough one. I understand why people are upset with the Pirates. They've certainly earned it. But I would urge you to try your best to give Ben Cherington and this new regime a chance. I don't know if Ben's reputation around baseball could be better. He didn't have anything to do with what has happened before. He's also been good at acquiring talent and building a farm system. Perhaps because I have no other choice, I'm willing to wait and see.
RPK
12:01
Getting a pitcher with an ERA over 11 is not what I call a good return as part of the Josh Bell trade.  What the hell are they thinking?
Jason Mackey
12:02
In what in 8 innings when the kid was shoehorned into the rotation because of injuries. I don't think that's enough to make a determination. ... And, hey, he might stink. But I'm not going to come to that conclusion based off of three starts in a weird year.
Ricky
12:02
The pirates should sign Yasiel puig. He can play first base . He can be for bells contract. He would probably win MVP
Jason Mackey
12:02
Probably? Ricky, you're slipping.
Pirates fan
12:03
What could we land for musgrove
Jason Mackey
12:05
In two Ben trades thus far -- Bell and Marte -- we've seen them target at least one projectable arm. So, let's start with that. Because he's a pitcher with years of control, a reasonable salary and also upside, I could see Musgrove getting that. The secondary piece of the deal will probably be at the lower levels, years away. Hard to say whether that should be a pitcher or not. I think that will probably be defined by team. I don't think the Pirates will target one or the other.
Maz
12:05
How did polanco break his wrist? I have not seen in the coverage.
Jason Mackey
12:06
I have not, either. It's a bone, though, so I mean there had to be some sort of contact with a ball, bat, person, etc.
MjB
12:06
I did not have a problem with the Bell trade, per se.  Time will always tell whether it was good or bad.  You cannot make that decision today.   I did find it interesting that sprinkled with the praise from the Nationals front office concerning Bell, they strongly inferred that they see some things in his swing they would like to address.  I always thought Bell had many individuals trying to "fix" his swing.  Was that the case here?
Jason Mackey
12:08
Mike Rizzo would not elaborate on what they see in Bell that leads them to believe he's a bounce-back candidate, but from covering Bell, I can tell you this: Consistency is undoubtedly his biggest issue. Before 2019, it was routine for him to tinker with his swing. The intentional stuff stopped, but whatever reason, Bell has been extremely prone to mechanical/approach lapses, which have caused him to sort of flail at pitches and chase. A lot. I have a feeling Rizzo feels like they have a structure in place that can help to eliminate that stuff.
Danny
12:08
I know the Pirates won’t get for Musgrove what TB did for Snell but what could a package look like? His trade surplus is quite high
Jason Mackey
12:10
Hi Danny. Got this one before, so feel free to scroll back. But I would imagine a younger starting pitcher with tools/stuff, plus probably a mid-grade prospect of another ilk. Maybe a catcher; I don't think that would hurt. But just someone younger, years away, that can help as a secondary, lesser piece. That would be my starting point with Joe.
Brian
12:10
Hearing any potential suitors for Musgrove and/or Frazier? I’ve heard fringe Angels rumors on Musgrove but not sure if any truth to them? Does Snell and Darvish deals make Musgrove more appealing?
Jason Mackey
12:14
Will take the second part first. I don't know if Snell/Darvish makes a Musgrove deal more appealing, but it does kinda set the market and give the Pirates an idea of what they can get. As I've been saying, a legit pitching prospect and reasonable secondary piece should easily be in play here. And as far as potential suitors, there are a lot for Musgrove. He's a young starting pitcher with a World Series ring, a terrific makeup, a bunch of pitches, years of control and a friendly contract. That should be no issue. From what I understand, there's been a decent amount of interest in Frazier, too.
Guest
12:14
OK, give us your latest take on the trade of Bell for two promising pitchers.  I say, let’s roll the dice and acquire guys with upside, and I did not see upside with Bell's: pitch selection; fielding; base running; and throwing.  IOW, a winning Pittsburgh Pirates will have a more productive, all-around talent at first base than Josh Bell
Jason Mackey
12:17
Here's where I come down on the Bell: The Pirates probably aren't going to be any good again until 2023 or '24, probably the latter, barring something crazy. Bell will be long gone by then, having signed somewhere as a free agent, likely not here. So you have to trade him. That leaves either now, July 2021, next offseason or July 2022, really, as the primary times. If you keep Bell, you pay him to play for a bad team, you risk another bad year, and he could get hurt. Now, the upshot of that is he can improve his value. However, if what Cherington has studied shows the value isn't going to change much by losing a year of control and gaining a year of positive performance, then you think more seriously about trading him now. If his value could go down precipitously based on said research -- and this was the case, they believed -- then you really look to do it now.
12:19
By doing it now, you need to target needs. A lot of people around baseball like Yean. He's a 19-year-old who is big and throws 19 with a terrific slider and an excellent feel for a changeup. He's a legit prospect. Crowe is somewhat more of a chance taken, but the Nationals also couldn't figure out how to finalize his development, the same thing the Pirates experienced with guys before. Maybe the new regime can fix that. That's the hope -- to take guys other teams can't solve and do that themselves. That's why I've been saying we need to give this time.
New Castle Pete
12:19
If Gregory P. Starts the year out on the D.L.,will that just about seal the deal with his future on the team?
Jason Mackey
12:20
Hey Pete. I'm a huge fan of New Castle. Went to school at Westminster. Love everything about that area. Anyway ... i think his fate is sealed. I think they're going to pay him in 2021 and pray he produces. If he does, maybe they can trade him for a bag of balls or something. If he doesn't, then I would imagine they'll buy him out. I guess him starting the year on the injured list lessens the likelihood of the former happening.
PB
12:21
I know this is not a popular opinion, but I am actually OK with the Bell trade.  Great guy and great ambassador for baseball and Pittsburgh, but with where the Bucs are now, save the money.  He is a defensive liability and the offensive numbers have just not been there since the start of 2019.
Jason Mackey
12:23
If Cherington can do what he was brought here to do -- build the Pirates from the ground up -- and they're actually competitive by 2023 or 2024, I'll be fine with it, too. I wanna see what they have in Colin Moran. Ditto for Will Craig and Mason Martin. I held out hope the Pirates would've signed Bell to a long-term extension because I agree with you, he is a great ambassador for the city and team. But in the end, I just don't think there was a fit for what he wanted and what they were willing to offer given their place in the rebuilding cycle. There's no harm in that, IMO.
Penguins
12:23
what players are up for extensions? Would they be interested with extending Hayes?? Keller?? Reynolds??
Jason Mackey
12:24
I think they would be interested in extending all of those guys. Maybe a couple others, too. But not at rates the players would want. All three stand to improve their stock a ton with solid performance. Same time, the Pirates probably want to see a little more from all of them, which is fair.
Run Game 0
12:24
Jason, what is the estimated payroll for 2021?
Jason Mackey
12:27
A stick of gum and some duct tape? No, seriously. Right now it's around $39 million, per Spotrac. Lowest in MLB. And just think, Frazier and Musgrove account for $8 million of that, Gregory Polanco $11 million. It's crazy. They're spending nothing. They can't go into the season with a $31 million payroll. They just can't.
Run Game 0
12:28
Jason, why is the team year after year after pitching?  Pitcher is one of  9 positions in a lineup card. Are they unable to acquire or ascertain the talent of an infielder or an outfielder?
Jason Mackey
12:29
The Pirates are hardly the only team to consistently seek pitching, to be fair. But a couple things here. One, they've been absurdly injured at that position. Two, they don't have enough pitching in system, which is why you've seen Ben Cherington go bonkers adding pitchers since he was hired. Organizationally, other than catcher, it was probably where they were weakest. But also look at a 40-man roster. A lot of times you're going to see 55-60% of it occupied by pitchers, so it would make sense to target pitching more.
Guest
12:30
I generally like the measured approach from Cherrington, but the decision to retain Bell into 2020 seems too conservative in hindsight. Bell was always going to be limited as featured talent and didn't offer the overall production value of a player like McCutchen in his prime  Did this approach result in selling way too low on Bell?
Jason Mackey
12:30
We're not going to know whether they sold low on Bell for quite some time. A lot of factors have to play out. I also think it's hard to levy an opinion either way because neither of us know what sort of offers Cherington was looking at last offseason, if any.
Percy
12:30
Could I make the argument that the Pirates are better by simply subtracting Josh Bell from the lineup? He was one of the worst players in all of baseball last season.
Jason Mackey
12:32
Sure you could. I don't disagree with you. I think that was an outlier, too. But looking at the decision in a 2020 vacuum, sure, you could say they're better without Bell. Figure they were 1 WAR better with Moran. I just don't think what you saw would be a trend over 162 (or more).
Rich
12:32
We have a need for a 4th outfielder, possibly a right hand hitter to platoon with Polanco.  Have you heard any names?
Jason Mackey
12:33
I have not. Covered this some last week, Rich. This is not going to be a marquee signing. (Act shocked, please.)
Percy
12:33
Is Colin Moran right now a better option at first base than Josh Bell?
Jason Mackey
12:34
Defensively, absolutely. I don't think there's any question. I hate Moran at third. Obviously it's moot because of Hayes, but he doesn't have the range. I'll give Moran this, though: If he can get to it, he's fairly steady. Range is obviously much less of an issue at first, especially in the shift era. I don't worry about him at all defensively over there.
Percy
12:34
Assuming they draft Rocker, how do u see the rotation looking in 2-3 years?
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