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Jason Mackey's sports chat: 07.12.24
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Jason Mackey
11:56
Hey everyone. Thanks for joining my weekly sports chat. Gonna get going in 3 1/2 minutes or so.
12:00
And away we go ...
Lee Mazilli Fan Club
12:00
Great column on Paul Skenes and his contract. But I'll take it even further. Give him a 10-year $300MM contract now. That would take him to age 32 and allow him, if he wanted, to cash in again on a large contract. It's a risk but one they really need to take. Now, for a question. Assuming he pitches like he has, and doesn't get hurt, is there any way he doesn't win ROY, and if he does continue like this could he pull off a Fernando and win ROY and Cy Young?
Jason Mackey
12:02
Thank you very much. I'm glad you enjoyed it. It's a tough question, as I wrote. That might not make sense for Paul. Think about it if you're him: Keep pitching the way you are and make arb money for four years, then you might enjoy the biggest payday for a starting pitcher ever.  Then again, you could have less than that now, guaranteed. It's also far beyond anything the Pirates have ever done. As I said, the chances are slim to none. But it's an interesting exercise in thought, IMO.
If he keeps pitching like he is right now, I don't see any reason why he doesn't win ROY ... and you'd certainly think he's on a very short list for the Cy Young.
Lee Mazilli Fan Club
12:02
If you stare into your crystal ball, what conference is Pitt playing in on September 1, 2030? The ACC? The Big 12? The Big Ten? The SEC? A different/newly formed conference? I get the odds of them going to the SEC are about the same as Paul Skenes getting a 10-year $300MM contract from the Pirates, but threw it in anyways.
Jason Mackey
12:04
Ha. Appreciate it all. Thank you the college sports question. I still think Pitt will be in the ACC. The way I see it, it would make sense to have four mega conferences, then the rest that wouldn't apply to Pitt. I also think you could make an argument for making football a completely different entity. "Conferences" only exist for the other sports, and football -- and probably basketball -- would operate in their own world.
SDWC
12:04
Odds that the Bucs will be .500 at the All-Star break?
Jason Mackey
12:05
Hard to bank on a sweep, but the White Sox do stink. I'm saying they win two of three in Chicago. That would work just fine. A sweep would be really friggin' big and erase much of the frustration from the first half.
SDWC
12:05
The Pirates just seem to be treading water to me. Thankfully no long losing streaks thanks to the starting pitching, but also no winning streaks thanks to the inconsistent bats. Is this what we should expect in the second half of the season?  Can this team go on a let’s say 10-2 run with the current roster?  Otherwise they’ll slowly but surely sink further away from the playoff race.
Jason Mackey
12:06
You're not wrong. Has been like 54 games since they won or lost 3 in a row. That's the definition of treading water. ... I know this, they're due a run like that. If it's good, it will leave little doubt about adding. But if it's bad, it might be the excuse management needs to sell what it can. It's crazy that they've gone this long without a run either way.
Cullen
12:06
Enjoyed your piece about Skenes this morning, Jason. I was similarly thinking about this earlier this week when it seemed inevitable that we would end up losing that year of control when he places in the top 2 of ROTY voting. If he and Bob are as serious as they claim about winning her, I think there is a fair compromise for both parties, maybe 6yr/$90m with a 7th year option. LM1: $5m LM2: $5m ARB1: $10M ARB2: $15M ARB3: $20M FA1: $30M FA2: $30M (5m signing bonus). Skenes gets paid handsomely now, more than he would make if we went year to year AND get the chance to still get that Cole money at age 28/28 with only giving up 1 or 2 years of free agency. All things considered I think this is very fair and the risk to the Pirates is minimal with an extremely high chance he massively outperorms this contract and remains a trade candidate if we need to retool. Paul also gets generational wealth and protects himself in the case of injury. What do you think?
Jason Mackey
12:08
I don't hate it, Cullen. If you're the Pirates, you're assuming a bunch of risk that Paul will remain good and healthy. I'm willing to make that bet. If I'm Paul, I don't want to give up too much of my prime earning years. You're telling me I can give up two but I get $90 million guaranteed (I feel like the end number might have to be higher ) ... it would make me think. Then again, I'm not a professional athlete.
Cullen
12:09
Cruz has looked much better at SS lately, making the routine plays more consistently. What fielding percentage or other metrics does he need to meet in order to stick at SS in the Pirates eyes?
Jason Mackey
12:10
He has. You're right. I don't even know if it's a fielding percentage, because a number like that isn't going to properly reflect yearly improvement. I think they need to see that -- improvement. If the trend line continues to point down, I think they would stick with him. His bat will play somewhere, obviously. Wouldn't waste the arm at first. Only place I'd think about is right field, and we don't know how that will look going into next offseason yet.
Cullen
12:10
If Kurtz or Wetherholt arent available in the draft we have to take Griffin right? 30/30 upside as a gold glove candidate at SS or CF doesnt just grow on trees. Even if his bat never comes around to its potential, that is still extremely valuable player and with his upside that is hard to ignore... Lately there have been a ton of premium athletes that make it to the majors out of high school very quickly and he could be another candidate. What do you think?
Jason Mackey
12:12
Maybe. Wouldn't hate it. I want them to get Kurtz, personally. There's also Montgomery and Tibbs, who would make sense. They love their college bats.
Andrew H.
12:12
Does Henry Davis spend the rest of the year in Indy? I can’t see them DFA Grandal and Bart can hit.
Jason Mackey
12:12
I don't think so. I think he comes back. He needs to come back so they can learn more.
Guest
12:13
After watching Skenes baffle major league hitters, how did college kids bat .131 against him?  It seems high.
Jason Mackey
12:13
Ha. I've thought that, too. Talk about unfair. Maybe aluminum bats?
Cullen
12:13
How many more dropped 3rd strikes are we going to have to watch from Grandal this year? It seems like every one of them has come around to hurt us too. I dont see any reason for him to play any more once Delay is fully healthy. Bart and Delay can handle it until Davis gets his confidence back in my estimation. Also what do you think is the most likely outcome at C once Endy returns?
Jason Mackey
12:16
They like Grandal. Don't know what else to tell you. I get the complaints. But he has caught all but one of Skenes' starts. They've made it this far. ... When Endy comes back, man, I don't know. So much to learn between now and then with him and Henry. Bart, too. I think you could see Endy bouncing around again. I wanna see Henry show an ability to hit MLB pitching consistently, too.
The General
12:16
First you are huge asset to Pittsburgh sports scene - hopefully the Pirates can take 2 of 3 from Chicago or even sweep them to get back to 500  - does that push Cherington to finally pull the trigger on trade and pick a bat or two ?
Jason Mackey
12:17
I don't know about being an asset to the Pittsburgh sports scene. There's a large group that would only agree with three letters of that word. ... It could. But I doubt Cherington does anything based on the team's record. (Insert joke here). It's going to be more based on the team, value, etc.
Cullen
12:17
Is Zander Meuth on the Chandler/Solometo path/plan? Dude has been dominating the Complex League and looks like another extremely high upside guy!
Jason Mackey
12:18
I mean, he's a young pitcher drafted out of high school, so yeah. That's a fairly normal trajectory. Think you saw similar stuff with Thomas Harrington, too.
JF
12:18
Hi Jason...can Skenes be a legit Cy Young contender? Will his inning limitations or the fact that the Pirates just can't score runs hurt his chances compared to someone on pace to put up close to 20 wins? I know win loss record isn't nearly as an important stat as it may have been years ago, but I imaging that it still has to carry some weight with voters. Just need my reassurance tat my $50 bet on him winning isn't dead in the water..thanks!!!
Jason Mackey
12:19
Ha. I'm a Cy Young voter. I don't look at wins and losses because of how baseball is anymore. There's so much more available. That being said, you make some good points. The innings limits, whether they're contending ... I don't know. If things fall apart because of injuries or a lack of offense, I'm sure they would minimize any risks with Paul. Different situation to a degree if they're in it. But as well as he has pitched, if that would continue, I don't know how he's not in that discussion.
epiballo
12:19
Skenes should have been left in until he gave up a hit or completed the no-hitter. He will get his money somewhere, but having a chance to throw a no hitter taken from him is what will sour him towards staying in Pittsburgh. How do you read Skene's reaction after the game?
Jason Mackey
12:21
I think he gets it. Probably didn't like it, but he gets it. That's probably a different discussion in two years, the same for anyone's interaction with their boss would change after several years of working somewhere. I don't think it will sour him on staying here. I think that will be a personal decision -- as it should be. Fair for you to disagree or get mad about that. Not saying you shouldn't feel that way. But I would be surprised if it affected his standing with the Pirates.
Guest
12:21
Do you get the impression that the Pirates are more in the Ward, Rooker, Winkler market vs the Robert Jr, Chisholm, Bleday market?
Jason Mackey
12:22
Hard to pick between the two groups. They're looking for guys with term. I can tell you that. So pure rentals, probably not gonna happen.
Bern
12:22
Pirates need to get a legit bat, Pens need to replace Jarry, Steelers needs to add a starting WR.  Which is most likely to happen, least?
Jason Mackey
12:22
Depends on what you define as a legit bat. Taylor Ward? Not sure if that's what you mean. Don't think the Pens will replace Jarry. I do think the Steelers will upgrade WR2. Thank you for expanding beyond baseball questions.
Bob's CPA
12:22
I guess the pirates have had some success this year. Does that mean next year is a bridge year?
Jason Mackey
12:23
I don't understand what you're getting at.
Guest
12:23
Please tell me Skenes isnt a Boras client. Seems like the only chance we have to extend him here is if he is with an agency who negotiates in good faith.
Jason Mackey
12:23
He's not.
Wayward
12:23
Jason, Bucs both buyers and sellers at the deadline?  Add OF and RP, trade one of Perez/Gonzale and may Grandel (if Bart and Delay are healthy).
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